L.C., you are making my head spin!
Let's make all of this conjecture academic by winning out!
I agree that the best thing is to just win out, but it isn't that bad:
1. Ohio wins if they beat Miami, regardless of the BG game. Ohio also wins if they lose to Miami, but beat BG, and get a little help. There are two forms that help could take - a WMU win over Miami, or a BG win over Buffalo.
2. Temple wins only if they beat Kent, and get help. The help they need is for Ohio to lose both, or if Ohio beats BG, for Buffalo to beat BG combined with a Miami win over WMU.
3. Miami can not win without beating Ohio, and having Kent beat Temple. They also win ties where everyone finishes at 4-4 but which don't include BG.
4. Kent loses all tiebreakers, so they need to be the only team with 5 wins.
5. BG wins all tiebreakers, so if there is a big tie at 4-4 which includes them, they win.
If we arbitrarily estimate that each team has a 50% chance of winning each game, Ohio has a 69% of winning, Temple has 16%, Miami 11%, and Kent and BG each have 2%.
I'm rooting for an Ohio win this week, and a win by WMU over Miami, which seals Ohio as the MAC East champs.