My point is I really don't see any definite losses on the schedule. Biggest test will probably be Iowa State, but we'll be in Athens in front of (biggest crowd ever?).
Yeah, I agree, I don't either. If Iowa State were on the road again I think that might start becoming close to that category.
Hopefully, we can call LIU a automatic win (a 50-1 shot or so, I think is where you'd put it, pretty close to automatic). What other automatic WINS are there? Akron and BGSU are road games, and while I'd pick Ohio, especially against Akron, these are not anything close to automatic wins. Western is a home game and looks like a pretty good chance for a win too but I wouldn't call it close to automatic.
We are followers of Ohio Bobcats football. We have seen this before. We know how it is. From 2010-2013 and 2016-2019 we would have been favored in 9 or 10 of 12 games going into the season and picked first or second in the East in just about all of those years. But often times we were on obvious underdog in 1, a slight underdog in 1, a slight favorite in 8, and a clear favorite in 2. Something like that.
If you are a slight favorite in all 12 games in any individual game the most likely outcome is you winning. But that does not, by any stretch, mean that your most likely record is 12-0. It would be more like 8-4. You have more chances to be upset than to pull an upset. If you are a slight favorite to win a division that doesn't mean that you are the odds on favorite. There is only one of you and five teams in the field and the collective chance of the field is usually better than that of the slight favorite. We were most certainly part of the field last year and won the East.
What did we do in most of those years I listed? We won 7 or 8 and finished second in the East. That's why I say about 7.5 wins on the O/U and a slight MAC East favorite looks reasonable to me.
Last Edited: 5/18/2023 2:47:41 PM by Victory