I read in the DeKalb article that if they make it to the MACC game "they would have to be heavily favored". Your info really does not indicate that.
That's because the oddsmakers generally don't look much past the scores. Plus NIU had bigger names on the OOC schedule: Wisconsin (9-2), Kansas (2-9) & Army (3-8). And the West is by far the better division in the MAC this year.
Harnish has passed for almost 2600 yds and is their leading rusher with over 1200 yds. If he were at an AQ school, he'd be Heissman material. In their 48-41 loss to CMU, Harnish threw for 370 yds and ran for 92. But they were only 8 of 20 on third downs, and he was sacked twice (only 7 all year) and picked twice (only 4 all year). I'm sure the coaching staff is looking at that game and the Buffalo game (NIU won 31-30 when the Buffs missed a PAT) for clues. If it's NIU, the Cats will need to dial up the passing pressure, shut down the RBs and be more aggressive in the secondary in order to limit yards after catch. It'll be a chore, but the Cats may have the best defense that NIU has seen from a MAC team this year.