I think everyone covered the reasons well, but for summary:
1.
Services focus on top schools: The recruiting services primarily focus on the top schools. One can dispute how accurate they are even at the top, but there is little doubt that they have no ability to separate the teams towards the bottom because it is one thing to accurately rate the top 150 players, and quite another to accurately rate the top 1500 players.
2.
Size matters: They give points for each recruit. When you have a small recruiting class, that hurts. Ohio is going to sign under 20 players this year, while IIemple will recruit over 28-33, which they always do. Contrasting the programs, one recruits less, and keeps the kids in the system to develop, which the other has more of a revolving door, allowing them to recruit more players a year. That helps the recruiting ranking, but does it help on the field?
3.
Grades don't matter: Some schools like IIemple recruit a lot of kids knowing they will not qualify. Having them on the list boosts the rating of their classes, but since they don't enroll (at least not that year). the value is less than it might seem.
4.
Walkons don't count: Ohio has a strong walkon program and awards 1-2 scholarships a year to walkons. When Ohio awards a scholarship to a walkon player, they are getting a player they know will be able to contribute. These players are NEVER counted in any year's recruiting classes. Since size matters, and this reduces the numbers of scholarships that can be awarded in any given year, it hurts the ranking, yet helps the team. Think of this way - you have one scholarship, and three kids that are possible. If you give it to one kid, it helps the ranking. If you get all three to walk on, and then give it to the best of the three, it hurts the ranking.
5.
Signing day surprises: Ohio is known for keeping their cards close to the vest, particularly when it comes to hidden gems. Every year there are surprises on signing day. Sometimes the surprises are good ones, sometimes not so good. A few guys that we never heard of at all until signing day are Lavon Brazill, Travis Carrie, and Marcellis Willaimson, and even though the ratings services had no idea that any of them even existed, they turned out ok.
Not all the surprises have good, but I think the case could be made that the surprises have been at least as good as the rest of the classes.
6.
Character doesn't matter: Ohio's staff seems to be putting an increasing emphasis on character, and I think that's a good thing, but it doesn't help you in the rankings.
Since this is going to be a very small class, my expectations for how it would be ranked have always been low. To me the key thing is that the few players they get are good, and this class seems to be very good. I have a composite rating system that factors in ratings from Scout, Rivals, ESPN, and who else offered, and on my scale the average rating of the players in this class is very high. That rating has progressively gone up each year, by the way, and when all is said and done, this year's class will probably be close to last year's, perhaps a bit higher.
The key thing is that this class is coming in not much differently than other classes, so I see no reason to believe that when all it said and done it will be remarkably different. I have little doubt that most or all of the players in the class have the ability to help the team. Note that that is different than the norm for lower recruiting classes - the norm is to get some good players, and some that don't work out. Solich's staff has more typically brought in some that are good, many that can help the team, and very few that never contribute.
In the end the key will be how they perform on the field. That's why Bcat2 said to ask him in 4-5 years how this class was. I think they will be fine. I also know they won't be ranked very highly, but I am not concerned about that.
Last Edited: 1/17/2012 3:33:48 PM by L.C.