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Topic: Early Gambling Odds - We are favored in every game after Penn State
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bigtillyoopsupsideurhead
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Posted: 6/7/2012 7:29 PM
Here is the website: 

http://beyondthebets.com/2012/06/06/never-too-early-college-football-point-spread-projections-for-all-798-regular-season-games/

Ohio at Penn State -13 

New Mexico State at Ohio -21 

Ohio -2 at Marshall 

Norfolk State at Ohio -26 

Ohio -21.5 at Massachusetts 

Buffalo at Ohio -21 

Akron at Ohio -24 

Ohio -2.5 at Miami (OH) 

Eastern Michigan at Ohio -16 

Bowling Green at Ohio -10 

Ohio -7.5 at Ball State 

Ohio -6.5 at Kent State 
L.C.
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Posted: 6/7/2012 8:34 PM
bigtillyoopsupsideurhead wrote:expand_more
Here is the website:  

http://beyondthebets.com/2012/06/06/never-too-early-college-football-point-spread-projections-for-all-798-regular-season-games/

Ohio at Penn State -13 

New Mexico State at Ohio -21 

Ohio -2 at Marshall 

Norfolk State at Ohio -26 

Ohio -21.5 at Massachusetts 

Buffalo at Ohio -21 

Akron at Ohio -24 

Ohio -2.5 at Miami (OH) 

Eastern Michigan at Ohio -16 

Bowling Green at Ohio -10 

Ohio -7.5 at Ball State 

Ohio -6.5 at Kent State  


Not too much different than my too-early numbers. I pretty much have Ohio winning by about 2-3 points more, except the Miami and Ball State games, where I show them to be toss-ups.
Penn State +9
NMSU -22
Marshall -5
Norfolk State -28
U. Mass -18
Buffalo -24
Akron -26
Miami -0
EMU -19
BGSU -13
Ball State 0
Kent -10
L.C.
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Posted: 6/9/2012 2:11 PM
Taking another look at this schedule, I can tell you what could go wrong. All the easiest games are at home, and all the hardest games are on the road. That normally is not something that is helpful. It isn't insurmountable, but it does make it much more likely that they will stumble along the way. In Peden, the fans should see a lot of the 2d and 3rd stringers, and more than a few wins by 3 Tds or more in games against NMSU, Norfolk State, Buffalo, and Akron. EMU and BGSU will probably not be nail-biters, either.

Look at the road games, though. Only U. Mass is likely to be an easy game. Penn State, Marshall, Miami, Ball State and Kent are all likely to be withing 1 TD either way. The one bit of good news is that there are normally good breaks between these road games, so the chances that they hit a long slump are minimal. If they can win the 6 home games, plus U. Mass, and 3 of the other 5 road games, that would be a 10-win season. If the home and road games were reversed, I'd be predicting an undefeated season.
Last Edited: 6/9/2012 2:13:40 PM by L.C.
Bcat2
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Posted: 6/9/2012 6:09 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Taking another look at this schedule, I can tell you what could go wrong. All the easiest games are at home, and all the hardest games are on the road. That normally is not something that is helpful. It isn't insurmountable, but it does make it much more likely that they will stumble along the way. In Peden, the fans should see a lot of the 2d and 3rd stringers, and more than a few wins by 3 Tds or more in games against NMSU, Norfolk State, Buffalo, and Akron. EMU and BGSU will probably not be nail-biters, either.

Look at the road games, though. Only U. Mass is likely to be an easy game. Penn State, Marshall, Miami, Ball State and Kent are all likely to be withing 1 TD either way. The one bit of good news is that there are normally good breaks between these road games, so the chances that they hit a long slump are minimal. If they can win the 6 home games, plus U. Mass, and 3 of the other 5 road games, that would be a 10-win season. If the home and road games were reversed, I'd be predicting an undefeated season.


2nd stringers  saw lots of snaps last season, which will help. I would be interested in a comparison of starts/snaps returning Ohio/PSU.  The returning starter's most recent big game experiences should help them know what needs to be done in those road games. 
Last Edited: 6/9/2012 6:29:16 PM by Bcat2
71 BOBCAT
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Posted: 6/10/2012 8:30 AM
PSU only favored by 13 is a bit of a surprise.
We could easily sneak up on these guys as this is the 1st game of the season and their 1st game with their new coaches and new system.
I look for Frank to throw in some wrinkles to keep PSU defense off balance.




GO BOBCATS
Bcat2
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Posted: 6/10/2012 3:22 PM
71 BOBCAT wrote:expand_more
PSU only favored by 13 is a bit of a surprise.
We could easily sneak up on these guys as this is the 1st game of the season and their 1st game with their new coaches and new system.
I look for Frank to throw in some wrinkles to keep PSU defense off balance.
GO BOBCATS


I look for Ohio to play ball contol.  Old school, run the ball, stop the run, win the game.
Deciduous Forest Cat
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Posted: 6/10/2012 4:45 PM
Bcat2 wrote:expand_more
PSU only favored by 13 is a bit of a surprise.
We could easily sneak up on these guys as this is the 1st game of the season and their 1st game with their new coaches and new system.
I look for Frank to throw in some wrinkles to keep PSU defense off balance.
GO BOBCATS


I look for Ohio to play ball contol.  Old school, run the ball, stop the run, win the game.


Are you kidding? We're in year two of the no-huddle scheme, with a returning starting QB and a very experienced offensive line.  I expect us to be faster and more precise.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 6/10/2012 8:47 PM
Wouldn't an advantage for us be to run hurry-up high pace given that PSU's in their first game under a new coach, so still trying to groove in?  Shouldn't our advantage in system-familiarity be magnified if we push pace?
Bcat2
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Posted: 6/10/2012 9:28 PM
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:expand_more
PSU only favored by 13 is a bit of a surprise.
We could easily sneak up on these guys as this is the 1st game of the season and their 1st game with their new coaches and new system.
I look for Frank to throw in some wrinkles to keep PSU defense off balance.
GO BOBCATS


I look for Ohio to play ball contol.  Old school, run the ball, stop the run, win the game.


Are you kidding? We're in year two of the no-huddle scheme, with a returning starting QB and a very experienced offensive line.  I expect us to be faster and more precise.


The no huddle scheme is about creating matchup problems. Last season it wa not about fast. It did crank out 1st downs in a balanced way.  Time of possession was not Solich/Albin. 
TIME OF POSSESSION/Game 29:53 30:07
Check the TOP from Rutgers, Buffalo, Ball State.  What did these games have in common besides the oponents owning TOP?.

vs RU; OU 20:05 RU 39:55
vs Buff; OU 27:29 UB  32:39
vs BSU; OU 22:44 BSU 37:16

I am not kidding vs PSU Albin will do all he can to play keep away with the ball from the Lions. After the game fans will be all about not running the plays fast enough.  Remember, if the defense can not sub to the pass protection players the no huddle will have had the desired effect even if TT spends what seems like a long time looking to the side for the play.  Again regarding "faster" so long as the drives result in points I would prefer they take their time.  I am thinking of Herman/Lechner who I would like to see getting a few extra seconds between plays.
Last Edited: 6/11/2012 8:34:39 AM by Bcat2
Deciduous Forest Cat
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:41 PM
we win that game in happy valley with 21 first half points moving at lightning speed before their D figures us out, and we'll need 7 more in the second half to come easy off a turnover or special teams play.

Our biggest advantage in this game is our experience running our own schemes and familiarity with our coaches.  We need to win as Apollo Creed, but we need to be ready to dodge some haymakers.  If we spend the game between the tackles we minimize our advantage and let their athletes tee off on us.

This is Tennessee in 2009 all over again. Yeah, we played well and we gave ourselves every chance, but don't tell me that one doesn't stick in your craw as a game we should have had. Will we make the plays we need to this time to finish the job?
Turney13
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:47 PM
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:expand_more
we win that game in happy valley with 21 first half points moving at lightning speed before their D figures us out, and we'll need 7 more in the second half to come easy off a turnover or special teams play.

Our biggest advantage in this game is our experience running our own schemes and familiarity with our coaches.  We need to win as Apollo Creed, but we need to be ready to dodge some haymakers.  If we spend the game between the tackles we minimize our advantage and let their athletes tee off on us.

This is Tennessee in 2009 all over again. Yeah, we played well and we gave ourselves every chance, but don't tell me that one doesn't stick in your craw as a game we should have had. Will we make the plays we need to this time to finish the job?


Noah's big toe on the line as he picks up a fumble and returns it for a touchdown still hurts...
Paul Graham
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:55 PM
I agree that we need to move fast and keep them guessing. I would love to see Tyler moving around in the pocket and forcing them to keep a man spying him. Tyler should have free rein to take off as he'd like. That gives us a nice extra dimension and neutralizes their athletic advantage on defense a bit.

I don't think we can play between the tackles with these guys...just a guess.
Bcat2
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Posted: 6/11/2012 2:13 PM
Paul Graham wrote:expand_more
I agree that we need to move fast and keep them guessing. I would love to see Tyler moving around in the pocket and forcing them to keep a man spying him. Tyler should have free rein to take off as he'd like. That gives us a nice extra dimension and neutralizes their athletic advantage on defense a bit.

I don't think we can play between the tackles with these guys...just a guess.


The people who would know are the coaches.  I trust them to give Ohio the best chance to win.  There will be dives, play-action passes, end-around passes etc., but, the key is to possess the ball more than them.  Give them 32-35 minutes with the ball and Ohio losses.  First downs, drives to TDs, good field position, making them go the length of the field.  Turnovers in Ohio's favor.  Ohio can't be cute, cute does not win games.  Physical play wins games.  I do think Ohio can play between the tackles with these guys.  Check Phil Steele's pre-season teams; Herman, Lechner, Allen; and you want to put the game in someone elses hands?
Paul Graham
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Posted: 6/11/2012 4:49 PM
Bcat2 wrote:expand_more
I agree that we need to move fast and keep them guessing. I would love to see Tyler moving around in the pocket and forcing them to keep a man spying him. Tyler should have free rein to take off as he'd like. That gives us a nice extra dimension and neutralizes their athletic advantage on defense a bit.

I don't think we can play between the tackles with these guys...just a guess.


The people who would know are the coaches.  I trust them to give Ohio the best chance to win.  There will be dives, play-action passes, end-around passes etc., but, the key is to possess the ball more than them.  Give them 32-35 minutes with the ball and Ohio losses.  First downs, drives to TDs, good field position, making them go the length of the field.  Turnovers in Ohio's favor.  Ohio can't be cute, cute does not win games.  Physical play wins games.  I do think Ohio can play between the tackles with these guys.  Check Phil Steele's pre-season teams; Herman, Lechner, Allen; and you want to put the game in someone elses hands?


I agree that we have a great O-line...but I'm not sure how that stacks up against Penn State. I don't think we need to be cute, but I also don't have confidence that we can run between the tackles. We rarely did that last season against far lesser opponents. If we're going to win this game we'll have to take some chances.
L.C.
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Posted: 6/11/2012 8:02 PM
I agree with Bcat2 here. I think Ohio can line up with most anyone, and play ball. If they try to get too cute, they could end up with errors that get them behind. I think it is a better plan to line up, and play ball, and see how that goes. If they try it, and find out that it isn't going to work, they can always try something else, but if they try something else first, and it doesn't work, it's too late to go back.

To me the strength of Ohio next year will be the defense, and they will keep Ohio in every game. The offense will be strong up the middle, and that bodes well for a solid running game. The tackles are more of a question, so there may be more sacks than last year. The receivers are also more of a question mark. If the receivers don't get open fast enough, and don't make all the tough catches, and if the tackles don't keep the pass rushers out long enough, the combination could lead to some unfavorable plays if you go to that well too often.

Fortuantely I think that Solich and his staff are excellent at predicting how things are going to match up, and finding a scheme that gives Ohio a chance to win. That doesn't mean they have always won, but more often than not they have been in the game, and they rarely have been blown out.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 6/12/2012 12:28 AM
What L.C. says here along with the ability to find and develop talent is why we is who we is.
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Posted: 6/12/2012 4:46 AM
Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
What L.C. says here along with the ability to find and develop talent is why we is who we is.


+1
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