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Topic: Least-feared stadiums in the FBS
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NIU007b
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Posted: 6/8/2012 5:22 PM
That list has no legitimacy whatsoever.  With the home record NIU has had, teams should probably fear us more.  And it looks like Ohio has done similarly at home. 
L.C.
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Posted: 6/9/2012 9:35 AM
NIU007b wrote:expand_more
That list has no legitimacy whatsoever.  With the home record NIU has had, teams should probably fear us more.  And it looks like Ohio has done similarly at home. 

I'm not sure why you would say "no legitimacy whatsoever". Really the list is mostly pretty reasonable. NIU and Ohio are two of the MAC teams with the best home records, and best attendance, and are ranked among the most feared of the MAC stadiums. I would agree that Yager Stadium should have probably been on the list, and less feared that Peden, but I'd guess that if the list had gone to 40 instead of stopping at 35, Yager would be on it, as would Doyt Perry, and probably the Glass Bowl, too.

Really the difference of a couple places on the list isn't that meaningful, since it's all subjective anyway, and especially since there is no time period specified. Certainly Yager was more feared than Peden from 2000-2005, as well as from 1980-1996, while Peden would clearly be scarier from 2007-2012.

One thing about the list did surprise me, though. That was that almost all of the teams on the list has attendance under 25k a game. It kind of makes clear the huge distinction between the few at the top that pack in 80-110,000, and the bulk of FBS.
Last Edited: 6/9/2012 10:26:18 AM by L.C.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 6/10/2012 6:23 AM
I don't see how the Glass Bowl would make the list at all.  In the last decade or so, just from memory, I can think of several BCS teams that came to Toledo and left with an "L" -- Kansas, Colorado, Iowa State, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota.
NIU007b
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Posted: 6/11/2012 5:13 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
That list has no legitimacy whatsoever.  With the home record NIU has had, teams should probably fear us more.  And it looks like Ohio has done similarly at home. 

I'm not sure why you would say "no legitimacy whatsoever". Really the list is mostly pretty reasonable. NIU and Ohio are two of the MAC teams with the best home records, and best attendance, and are ranked among the most feared of the MAC stadiums. I would agree that Yager Stadium should have probably been on the list, and less feared that Peden, but I'd guess that if the list had gone to 40 instead of stopping at 35, Yager would be on it, as would Doyt Perry, and probably the Glass Bowl, too.

Really the difference of a couple places on the list isn't that meaningful, since it's all subjective anyway, and especially since there is no time period specified. Certainly Yager was more feared than Peden from 2000-2005, as well as from 1980-1996, while Peden would clearly be scarier from 2007-2012.

One thing about the list did surprise me, though. That was that almost all of the teams on the list has attendance under 25k a game. It kind of makes clear the huge distinction between the few at the top that pack in 80-110,000, and the bulk of FBS.


If they're saying that teams are afraid to play somewhere strictly because of the crowd and not on their chances of winning, then the list makes sense.  If you include the odds of winning, not so much.  We can't even get BCS teams to play us at home (the last 3 that did, going back to 2002, lost), and we've had a grand total of 0 losses at home in MAC play the last 2 years. If teams are not "afraid", perhaps they should be. Not comparing us to playing in Ann Arbor or anything, but it seems like the MAC teams just all got lumped together based on recent attendance.
L.C.
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Posted: 6/11/2012 7:48 PM
I do think that the list factored in winning percentages at home, but not just over 2 years, rather more like over the last decade. That is the only explanation for Miami not being on the list. I think it is clear that attendance was also a major factor in the ratings, because virtually everyone on the list had attendance under 25k.

By the way, besides fearing to play you at hone, another problem with getting teams to come to "your place" is the risk-reward comparison. Let's say that a Top 25 team came to NIU, (or to Ohio), there would be a non-zero risk of losing. If they lose, that hurts their reputation a lot, but if they win, they gain little, as the perception, fair or not, is that they "should" beat MAC teams. The more credibility that your program can establish on a National stage, the less this will be a factor. Toledo has a fair amount of credibility, and therefor they have had more luck than most MAC teams at getting 1-1 deals. That doesn't mean people fear them less, it just means there is more to gain from beating Toledo, and less to lose from losing to them.

If Ohio and NIU can continue to play at a high level for a number of years, they should both see an improvement in the quality of teams they can get to come play them. Some people want to put the cart before the horse, but it doesn't always work that way.
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Posted: 6/11/2012 9:12 PM
Jeff McKinney wrote:expand_more
That Fiami is not on this list discredits its legitimacy. 


The web site itself discredits its legitimacy.
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Posted: 6/11/2012 11:39 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
I do think that the list factored in winning percentages at home, but not just over 2 years, rather more like over the last decade. That is the only explanation for Miami not being on the list. I think it is clear that attendance was also a major factor in the ratings, because virtually everyone on the list had attendance under 25k.

By the way, besides fearing to play you at hone, another problem with getting teams to come to "your place" is the risk-reward comparison. Let's say that a Top 25 team came to NIU, (or to Ohio), there would be a non-zero risk of losing. If they lose, that hurts their reputation a lot, but if they win, they gain little, as the perception, fair or not, is that they "should" beat MAC teams. The more credibility that your program can establish on a National stage, the less this will be a factor. Toledo has a fair amount of credibility, and therefor they have had more luck than most MAC teams at getting 1-1 deals. That doesn't mean people fear them less, it just means there is more to gain from beating Toledo, and less to lose from losing to them.

If Ohio and NIU can continue to play at a high level for a number of years, they should both see an improvement in the quality of teams they can get to come play them. Some people want to put the cart before the horse, but it doesn't always work that way.
+1 This. Seriously, this is it. Everyone needs to read this
NIU007b
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Posted: 6/12/2012 8:09 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
I do think that the list factored in winning percentages at home, but not just over 2 years, rather more like over the last decade. That is the only explanation for Miami not being on the list. I think it is clear that attendance was also a major factor in the ratings, because virtually everyone on the list had attendance under 25k.

By the way, besides fearing to play you at hone, another problem with getting teams to come to "your place" is the risk-reward comparison. Let's say that a Top 25 team came to NIU, (or to Ohio), there would be a non-zero risk of losing. If they lose, that hurts their reputation a lot, but if they win, they gain little, as the perception, fair or not, is that they "should" beat MAC teams. The more credibility that your program can establish on a National stage, the less this will be a factor. Toledo has a fair amount of credibility, and therefor they have had more luck than most MAC teams at getting 1-1 deals. That doesn't mean people fear them less, it just means there is more to gain from beating Toledo, and less to lose from losing to them.

If Ohio and NIU can continue to play at a high level for a number of years, they should both see an improvement in the quality of teams they can get to come play them. Some people want to put the cart before the horse, but it doesn't always work that way.


Well, except that NIU and Toledo have almost exactly the same record since 2000. I actually posted that on a Toledo board recently. So I don't think it's really a matter of credibility. There may be some of that but there has to be something else. 
L.C.
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Posted: 6/12/2012 10:33 PM
Since 2000, Toledo is 90-58, NIU is 90-59, and Ohio is 60-79. From 1990-1999 Toledo was 72-38-3, while NIU was 33-77 and Ohio was 34-74-3. That's not a good sign - it may mean that 10 years of winning isn't enough. Ohio only has 6, unfortunately, so they may have a ways to go.

Perhaps there are other indicators. I wonder, in the last decade, how many times each of these schools have been on National TV? Perhaps Toledo, by winning in the 90's was on TV more in the early 2000's than either Ohio or NIU, and thus had a credibility head start. Hopefully TV exposure is the explanation, because these days many more games are on national TV than a decade ago. Thus, NIU and Ohio may be able to close the credibility gap much faster now, and it won't take another decade of winning.

There are signs that Ohio is closing that credibility gap. They recently signed a couple 1-1 deals with BCS schools (Kansas and Cincinnati), and hopefully we will see more to come.  Going 5-1 on national TV last year no doubt helped, with NIU being the lone loss. Also, Ohio winning 3 games in the tournament the last two years in BB-Ball can't have hurt, as those wins no doubt dramatically increased awareness of Ohio.
Last Edited: 6/12/2012 10:45:25 PM by L.C.
NIU007b
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Posted: 6/13/2012 7:09 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Since 2000, Toledo is 90-58, NIU is 90-59, and Ohio is 60-79. From 1990-1999 Toledo was 72-38-3, while NIU was 33-77 and Ohio was 34-74-3. That's not a good sign - it may mean that 10 years of winning isn't enough. Ohio only has 6, unfortunately, so they may have a ways to go.

Perhaps there are other indicators. I wonder, in the last decade, how many times each of these schools have been on National TV? Perhaps Toledo, by winning in the 90's was on TV more in the early 2000's than either Ohio or NIU, and thus had a credibility head start. Hopefully TV exposure is the explanation, because these days many more games are on national TV than a decade ago. Thus, NIU and Ohio may be able to close the credibility gap much faster now, and it won't take another decade of winning.

There are signs that Ohio is closing that credibility gap. They recently signed a couple 1-1 deals with BCS schools (Kansas and Cincinnati), and hopefully we will see more to come.  Going 5-1 on national TV last year no doubt helped, with NIU being the lone loss. Also, Ohio winning 3 games in the tournament the last two years in BB-Ball can't have hurt, as those wins no doubt dramatically increased awareness of Ohio.


Not that it matters that much I guess, but I doubt the people doing the scheduling look back that far. If they do, then maybe that would explain it, seems unlikely though. Even more recently Toledo's had their share of clunkers, getting pummelled by Kansas, or losing at home to Wyoming.  I personally think that NIU's admin hasn't pushed the issue to get those home games, though I could be wrong.
L.C.
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Posted: 6/13/2012 7:38 PM
NIU007b wrote:expand_more
... I personally think that NIU's admin hasn't pushed the issue to get those home games, though I could be wrong.

That was going to be my other answer. I do think having credibility helps when it comes time to try to schedule 1-1 series with BCS teams. I also think that the AD matters, because he's the one that has to make the deal happen. If scheduling them isn't a priority, they aren't going to happen. I know that Ohio wasn't trying to schedule them until recently, but obviously now they feel they are ready to play at that level.
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Posted: 6/13/2012 9:32 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
That was going to be my other answer. I do think having credibility helps when it comes time to try to schedule 1-1 series with BCS teams. I also think that the AD matters, because he's the one that has to make the deal happen. If scheduling them isn't a priority, they aren't going to happen. I know that Ohio wasn't trying to schedule them until recently, but obviously now they feel they are ready to play at that level.


I thought we might never again get a BCS team in Peden once we saw what Schaus had lined up through 2015/16 or so. However, it appears that we might be ready to finally take that next step...hopefully on a consistent basis. Let's just hope we're alive to see it in 2018! 
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