1. Fresno lost but is probably still ahead of us
2. James Madison still unbeaten
3. Tulane -- plays Memphis next week
4. Air Force - plays Wyoming next week
5. Toledo - We will beat in the championship
6. Memphis -- plays Tulane next week
7. Liberty -
9. Marshall lost in a close one -- probably a toss-up with Ohio
10. Wyoming had a huge win
11. Ohio
We still need a decent amount of luck, but it's possible
JMU, as far as my understanding of the rules, is in their transition year and there isn't a mechanism for them to get that NY6 spot. I think that they are ineligible to play in SunBelt championship game and thus cannot win a conference championship. One is required to earn that spot. They are eligible to be ranked and can play in a bowl as one of the first alternates if not enough teams reach 6 wins by the standard rules. That is very likely to happen. However, as far as I know, The NY6 spot isn't the highest rated G5 team by the playoff committee but the highest rated conference champion. There could be an unbeaten team with a resume close to UC a few years ago ranked well inside the top ten as the only ranked G5 team before they lose to a 7-5 team in their conference championship. They could easily still be the only ranked G5 team but they'd open the spot up for a separate committee argument by losing that title game. So that is a way someone with a much lesser resume could slip in.
Anyway, summing up:
1. JMU played their first transition year in FBS. Most teams don't. Therefore they are still in the second transition year.
2. Transition teams are ineligible to play in conference championship games or bowl eligibility unless the bowls end up short of eligible teams.
3. A conference championship is required for the G5 NY6 spot.
Let me know if anyone believes any of those three statements are wrong. If they are all correct, JMU beating up on the rest of the SB is a great way to harm the resume of the Marshall and Georgia Southern and everyone else.
I realized shortly after I posted in this thread last night that I completely neglected Air Force. The MWC is one of the better G5 conferences but Air Force is not playing a great schedule. They miss some of the better MWC teams and play Wyoming next week. We should probably be rooting for Wyoming yet again because there are not a lot of great opportunities for Air Force to lose. The winner of that game is going to be up there with the winner of Tulane vs. Memphis. In the end, if we have a fighting chance come December we are probably going to be rooting for the MWC title game to go a certain way. UNLV should also be mentioned as a longshot candidate. They only have one loss and it is to Michigan. The bottom of the MWC isn't that great. It is going to be hard to get the right combination of upsets to eliminate all of the MWC before December.
Last Edited: 10/8/2023 11:37:58 AM by Victory