Not sure how this has not been brought up on this board yet with all the questions on the regression of the offense this year but the answer, I believe, was revealed during the broadcast for the Buffalo game. They shared that Albin has a "formula for winning" this formula is as follows:

Add - Interceptions, Fumbles Lost, Sacks, Drops & Penalties. Then Divide by - TOTAL OFFENSIVE PLAYS. Albin says if the result is 12% or less = Win 88% of games.
They later shared that the total was 16% for the Buffalo game. I have not checked to see if this reigns true for this season, it would be interesting to see if it does though.

I will leave it up to you all to make your assumptions as to why they have moved to this model but it certainly explains the slow pace and their reluctance to speed things up even when they are struggling. Just wanted to throw this out there to see what you all think and to spread some awareness in case you missed it during the broadcast.

To me this isn't a formula for winning. It is a post-game metric showing why The Bobcats may have won or lost.

Albin said that the number vs. ISU was 0%

They got their liquor licenses back last week and had a big re-grand opening party.

The lack of effective offense has been a mystery to me all year. Rourke looked pretty good during the first quarter of the SDSU game until he was hurt, and I haven’t really analyzed his stats much this year, but I suspect that he is not the same QB as last year. Not sure if some physical thing, but he’s just not as effective as last year. He basically has the same line and running backs, so that doesn’t explain the drop off in my opinion. It appears to me that we essentially lost our two deep threats - Bostic and Jones who were the top 2 MAC receivers among the top 50 as far as yards per catch. Without as much of a deep threat, I’m guessing the defense will play the run more and be able to more effectively stop the run. Don’t know if that’s true, but that’s my theory.

Has our play calling had an affect on the results? Maybe without the deep threats that we had last year, they’ve called it more conservative which I think we’re seeing. Afraid of Rourke getting hurt again- seems like a lot less option plays to me. I think that Albin taking over the play calling the last 2 weeks shows that he knows we’re not getting the job done. It’s a little too little, too late to change the results of a couple games we lost.

I also don’t think our special teams have helped us much this year with the field position battles, but I dont know how that has translated to offensive success.

Is the season a total failure- not as far as I’m concerned but for the “ only the MACC counts crowd”, probably so. Is it a huge disappointment - it is for me and I’ll keep scratching my head as to what went wrong with the offense. We can only speculate why that is.

So, can we take this information to mean that Albin did not call the plays for NIU or Miami?

Good analysis. I think that the loss of Jones has hurt particularly, as he had a knack for getting open on crucial downs. The offense just seemed to have a better rhythm when he was on the field. Does anyone know if he’ll be back next year?

This sounds like a strategy an offensive coordinator that was about to be fired came up with.

"Noooo you dont understand! Having the ball less... means we win... MORE!"

But good lord - whoever came up with a formula that running LESS PlAYS is the key to victory has to be fired immediately.

Correlation doesn't equal causation.

Of course limiting turnovers leads to victory more often than not, but running... fewer plays... YUCK. Maybe if this meant we were throwing 40 yard bombs all day and scoring at will. Alas, we're running 3 dives into the pile and punting, thinking its sound strategy.

I bet if you put every team in a database from this year - the team that had the ball the most time won the game 90 times out of 100.

funny, people want to dispute math. Every sport has metrics that are statistically significant. That is a solid formula, always has been!

The formula is just another way of saying
[quote=formula]"The following things are all bad. Avoid these errors:
fumble
interception
sack
dropped passe
penalty[/OUTER_QUOTE]
I sit here confused. Has any coach, ever, not wanted to reduce every one of these? Do people really want more fumbles and interceptions? More sacks against us? More dropped passes? More penalties?