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Topic: MAC Bowl odds
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UpSan Bobcat
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Posted: 12/3/2012 9:24 PM
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The MAC not getting a lot of love from Danny Sheridan:

Utah State a 9.5-point favorite vs. Toledo
Central Florida an 8-point favorite vs. Ball State
Western Kentucky a 6-point favorite vs. Central Michigan
San Jose State a 7-point favorite vs. Bowling Green
UL-Monroe a 7-point favorite vs. Ohio
Florida State a 13.5-point favorite vs. Northern Illinois
Arkansas State a 5-point favorite vs. Kent State
bobcat695
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Posted: 12/3/2012 9:42 PM
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At first glance, Toledo is the only team I'd place money on.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 12/3/2012 10:21 PM
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You have two choices:  Ohio comes out with the same old predictable offense (hey, wide receiver screen for no yards at all anyone?!) and bend, bend, bend defense.  Or OHIO comes OUT and plays OHIO ball.

Now you know how to bet.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 12/3/2012 10:32 PM
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UpSan Bobcat wrote:expand_more
The MAC not getting a lot of love from Danny Sheridan:

Utah State a 9.5-point favorite vs. Toledo
Central Florida an 8-point favorite vs. Ball State
Western Kentucky a 6-point favorite vs. Central Michigan
San Jose State a 7-point favorite vs. Bowling Green
UL-Monroe a 7-point favorite vs. Ohio
Florida State a 13.5-point favorite vs. Northern Illinois
Arkansas State a 5-point favorite vs. Kent State


Did Kirkem to the Curbstreet come up with these point spreads?  Not one MAC team favored in any bowl game?  This is the conference that last year won the ESPN Award for the highest percentage of bowl victories.  This is a total joke. 
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 12/3/2012 11:02 PM
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OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
Utah State a 9.5-point favorite vs. Toledo
Central Florida an 8-point favorite vs. Ball State
Western Kentucky a 6-point favorite vs. Central Michigan
San Jose State a 7-point favorite vs. Bowling Green
UL-Monroe a 7-point favorite vs. Ohio
Florida State a 13.5-point favorite vs. Northern Illinois
Arkansas State a 5-point favorite vs. Kent State


Did Kirkem to the Curbstreet come up with these point spreads?  Not one MAC team favored in any bowl game?  This is the conference that last year won the ESPN Award for the highest percentage of bowl victories.  This is a total joke. 


How would you do it differently?  Aside from the 4-4 MAC teams (Ohio & CMU)...we drew some real tough opponents.  The only one I think is off is Kent.  i would take:

Utah State (I think they are really good)
Ball State (I like Ball St this year, can't see them losing by more than a TD)
WKU (A case could be made for CMU's 4 MAC wins were against the 4 worst teams)
San Jose St (also think they are really good, and battle tested)
UL-Monroe (A case could be made for Ohio's 4 MAC wins were against the 4 worst teams)
NIU (13.5 is too much)
Kent (But Ark St is no slouch)
mf279801
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Posted: 12/3/2012 11:14 PM
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OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
The MAC not getting a lot of love from Danny Sheridan:

Utah State a 9.5-point favorite vs. Toledo
Central Florida an 8-point favorite vs. Ball State
Western Kentucky a 6-point favorite vs. Central Michigan
San Jose State a 7-point favorite vs. Bowling Green
UL-Monroe a 7-point favorite vs. Ohio
Florida State a 13.5-point favorite vs. Northern Illinois
Arkansas State a 5-point favorite vs. Kent State


Did Kirkem to the Curbstreet come up with these point spreads?  Not one MAC team favored in any bowl game?  This is the conference that last year won the ESPN Award for the highest percentage of bowl victories.  This is a total joke. 


I can't argue with any one of those lines based on season long and late season performance, though the Toledo, Ball State, and NIU lines look a little wide. 

We had the highest percentage of bowl victories LAST year. This year we've got 7 teams playing in bowls, and all of them have pretty good competition. Coaching changes, injuries/player availability, and "spirit" are going to have a big impact on these games. For instance, is Malzahn still coaching at Arkansas State? Is Hazell still at Kent? How does Carey fare as a head coach? Lines at this point are speculative, and lines throughout bowl season aren't intended to represent the the actual 50-50 point: according to what i've read, sports books typically set their lines in such a way to encourage the bets to fall roughly 52.5% on the losing side of the line, so that the book can profit about 5% (because only 47.5% of the bets would be placed on the winning side of the line). In other words, the posted line is likely different than the in-house line by a couple of points.
perimeterpost
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Posted: 12/3/2012 11:20 PM
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Ball State might be the most underrated MAC team this year. 9-3 with wins over 2 AQ teams, #25 Toledo and us. Their only losses were to #14 Clemson, #15 NIU, and #25 Kent State.
Last Edited: 12/3/2012 11:20:54 PM by perimeterpost
bobcat695
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Posted: 12/4/2012 12:19 AM
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Vegas is rarely wrong this late in the season.  It gets tough to win at sports betting at the end of the year.
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 12/4/2012 10:23 AM
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NIU going to the Orange Bowl and La Tech not taking a bid probably slid everyone up two slots. So the lines make sense. 
bornacatfan
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Posted: 12/4/2012 10:46 AM
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perimeterpost wrote:expand_more
Ball State might be the most underrated MAC team this year. 9-3 with wins over 2 AQ teams, #25 Toledo and us. Their only losses were to #14 Clemson, #15 NIU, and #25 Kent State.


Ball State has no QB cleared at present. Prime time is still suffering from an ankle injury and the 5h year senior who previously was the starter is still getting back from a concussion in the last game.
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