Opt in allows the university to pay for the NIL through a trust fund. This is actually easier for 80% of D1 than to try to raise that kind of money privately. Without it a program is effectively low major in a sport. Think Akron men's soccer for example are they going to throw it under the bus by not opting in? Could Akron though say its time to drop football due to cost savings? Could the MAC opt-in but only offer 50 stipends and not 85 in football in-line with what FCS conferences are offering?
You're focus is opting out and killing football but there may be opting-in and killing football too or a deemphasis of it.
Opt-in means that Ohio University's athletic budget instantly increases at least 28%. What's the ROI on that increase?
And yes, I think that anybody looking at the financial state of Akron University is going to scoff at increasing their athletics budget by 30% because their soccer team's been pretty good.
What is the proposed rule half of your athletic participants receive the 30k if you opt-in? Akron by dropping FB would save itself 5 million plus reduce their participants by 1/3rd. Then if down to 200 participants of which 100 need to be funded that is only 3 million all of which can be directly funded by the university.
Ohio with 350 participants to opt-in is looking at a minimum of 5.25 million a year added to the budget. It that budget is 29 million currently its an 18% increase. For the minimum standard. My guess is the MAC would try to get away with the minimum and make a decision sport by sport as to the minimums for each sport. Basketball could get a full 13 while football only 40 or 50. If all the conferences except the power ones go this direction there will be less transferring because of the limited 30k stipends available across D1.
Membership in FBS could require opting in. The MAC could move down to FCS but if so there goes the playoff TV money. Title IX however will hamstring offering a complete amount of 30k stipends for football. The power conferences will I imagine try to fund everything to the maximum.