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Topic: Louisville -20.5??
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perimeterpost
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Posted: 8/4/2013 6:49 PM
The current spread has us as 20 point dogs. I know they're ranked 9th and have a good team but... doesn't that seem a little high?

Its not like an Ohio fan to be overly confident but I feel like we have a good chance against Lville, how did my expectations get so out of whack?
Mike Johnson
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Posted: 8/4/2013 7:44 PM
perimeterpost wrote:expand_more
The current spread has us as 20 point dogs. I know they're ranked 9th and have a good team but... doesn't that seem a little high?

Its not like an Ohio fan to be overly confident but I feel like we have a good chance against Lville, how did my expectations get so out of whack?


36-18 over the last four seasons with wins over Penn State, Utah State, Marshall twice and the dismantling of La-Monroe might provide the answer. 
C Money
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Posted: 8/4/2013 8:10 PM
And it opened at -16. Apparently, no one who gambles is looking at anything except the final score of the Sugar Bowl.

But whatever. I hope it goes to -30, and every player on Lvl believes it.
Jeff McKinney
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Posted: 8/4/2013 8:11 PM
I think that spread is pretty accurate.

Kevin Finnegan
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Posted: 8/4/2013 8:31 PM
I think both teams are in a similar situation coming off last year. Is Louisville, like Ohio, the team that started off hot (began 9-0)? Or are they the team, like Ohio, that sputtered towards the finish line, with losses to a mediocre Syracuse and a below .500 UConn team? Or, like Ohio, are they the team that is more like their dominant bowl performance team? I think if both are the teams we saw in bowl games, this could be quite an exciting game.

Remember, we're not talking about a team with a necessarily stellar defense (36th overall with 23.8 points against). Then again, their offense wasn't overly dominant either, scoring 31.2 ppg, good for 51st in the country. Comparison, Ohio was 31.7 ppg on offense (42nd) and 24.8 points allowed (46th).

For what it's worth, Louisville beat two opponents last year by 20 or more points, Missouri State (FCS school) by 28 and Temple (insert joke about FCS quality) by 28 as well. Then again, Ohio lost two games by 20 or more points last year (Ball St and Kent St).
Pataskala
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Posted: 8/4/2013 8:32 PM
This happened.  The addition of Dyer makes L'ville a better team (at least on paper), although I'm not sure how much difference he'll make four weeks from now.
The Optimist
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Posted: 8/4/2013 8:38 PM
I'm optimistic about this one.
perimeterpost
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Posted: 8/4/2013 9:11 PM
Pataskala wrote:expand_more
This happened.  The addition of Dyer makes L'ville a better team (at least on paper), although I'm not sure how much difference he'll make four weeks from now.


I'm not worried about a Sun Belt transfer.
Athens
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Posted: 8/5/2013 12:12 AM
C Money wrote:expand_more
And it opened at -16. Apparently, no one who gambles is looking at anything except the final score of the Sugar Bowl.

But whatever. I hope it goes to -30, and every player on Lvl believes it.


Not to mention the performance last year of the MAC against the Big East or the American or whatever its called now taking out its top teams. Everyone else in the league lost to the MAC but Louisville escaped by not playing a MAC school. Classic example of an overrated team clipped in the first week of play.
GoCats105
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Posted: 8/5/2013 10:48 AM
perimeterpost wrote:expand_more
This happened.  The addition of Dyer makes L'ville a better team (at least on paper), although I'm not sure how much difference he'll make four weeks from now.


I'm not worried about a Sun Belt transfer.


You should be worried about a former game-winning run the in the National Championship game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdEZrJYXhVM
C Money
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Posted: 8/5/2013 11:02 AM
Uncle Wes wrote:expand_more
Not to mention the performance last year of the MAC against the Big East or the American or whatever its called now taking out its top teams. Everyone else in the league lost to the MAC but Louisville escaped by not playing a MAC school. Classic example of an overrated team clipped in the first week of play.


The top half of the MAC is at least as good as the top half of the AAC. Let's say NIU, Ohio, BSU, Toledo, Kent, and BG vs. Lvl, Cincy, Rutgers, UCF, Houston, and USF. It's the bottom of the conference (Kron, UMass, EMU) where the MAC falls off. Shocking, I know.
Pataskala
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Posted: 8/5/2013 4:29 PM
C Money wrote:expand_more
Not to mention the performance last year of the MAC against the Big East or the American or whatever its called now taking out its top teams. Everyone else in the league lost to the MAC but Louisville escaped by not playing a MAC school. Classic example of an overrated team clipped in the first week of play.


The top half of the MAC is at least as good as the top half of the AAC. Let's say NIU, Ohio, BSU, Toledo, Kent, and BG vs. Lvl, Cincy, Rutgers, UCF, Houston, and USF. It's the bottom of the conference (Kron, UMass, EMU) where the MAC falls off. Shocking, I know.


I'd probably take USF off that list and put SMU in.  USF has been down several years now and are definitely behind UConn & Temps in that league.  They're probably glad to see Memphis and Tulane joining their league.  Still, last year the MAC was 3-1 vs. the six you named (Ws for Toledo-Cincy, Kent-Rutgers, BSU-USF; L for UCF-BSU in a bowl) and 2-1 vs. my six. 
Jughead
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Posted: 8/5/2013 6:24 PM
GoCats105 wrote:expand_more
This happened.  The addition of Dyer makes L'ville a better team (at least on paper), although I'm not sure how much difference he'll make four weeks from now.


I'm not worried about a Sun Belt transfer.


You should be worried about a former game-winning run the in the National Championship game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdEZrJYXhVM


I'm not worried unless the place kicker also transferred to Louisville.
A-townBound
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Posted: 8/5/2013 7:55 PM
C Money wrote:expand_more
But whatever. I hope it goes to -30, and every player on Lvl believes it.
Listening to the radio driving home from Louisville, it sounds like they are looking past pretty much everybody.

Charlie Strong said his biggest challenge this season will be to not let his players look past teams.
Pataskala
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Posted: 8/6/2013 10:40 AM
Looking past teams early in the season has been a problem for them at least since Strong arrived in '10.  That year they lost to UK (which finished 6-7 that season) and beat EKU by only 10 at home.  In '11 they beat Murray St 21-9, then lost to FIU and Terd.  Last year they barely won September road games vs. FIU and Southern Miss (0-12).
perimeterpost
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Posted: 8/6/2013 1:02 PM
any truth to the rumor that we're getting Maurice Clarett?
Business_Cat
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Posted: 8/6/2013 2:32 PM
perimeterpost wrote:expand_more
any truth to the rumor that we're getting Maurice Clarett?


I'd hope not. We'll let crAckron be the MAC's Thug-U
Speaker of Truth
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Posted: 8/6/2013 9:49 PM
C Money wrote:expand_more
Not to mention the performance last year of the MAC against the Big East or the American or whatever its called now taking out its top teams. Everyone else in the league lost to the MAC but Louisville escaped by not playing a MAC school. Classic example of an overrated team clipped in the first week of play.


The top half of the MAC is at least as good as the top half of the AAC. Let's say NIU, Ohio, BSU, Toledo, Kent, and BG vs. Lvl, Cincy, Rutgers, UCF, Houston, and USF. It's the bottom of the conference (Kron, UMass, EMU) where the MAC falls off. Shocking, I know.


Have to disagree with this.  Ville, Rutgers, Cincy would easily finish 1-2-3 in the MAC.  If UCF, Houston and USF were placed in the current MAC, I would say they would all be a lock for top 5.  There is a difference between a whole season and a few early season non conference games.
cbarber357
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Posted: 8/6/2013 10:01 PM
the123kid wrote:expand_more
Not to mention the performance last year of the MAC against the Big East or the American or whatever its called now taking out its top teams. Everyone else in the league lost to the MAC but Louisville escaped by not playing a MAC school. Classic example of an overrated team clipped in the first week of play.


The top half of the MAC is at least as good as the top half of the AAC. Let's say NIU, Ohio, BSU, Toledo, Kent, and BG vs. Lvl, Cincy, Rutgers, UCF, Houston, and USF. It's the bottom of the conference (Kron, UMass, EMU) where the MAC falls off. Shocking, I know.


Have to disagree with this.  Ville, Rutgers, Cincy would easily finish 1-2-3 in the MAC.  If UCF, Houston and USF were placed in the current MAC, I would say they would all be a lock for top 5.  There is a difference between a whole season and a few early season non conference games.

Cincy and Rutgers would not be 2 or 3, at least not most of the time. 
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