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L.C.
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Posted: 8/16/2013 7:09 PM
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the following number of conference wins for MAC teams:
East
Ohio -    6.8
BG -      6.5
Kent -    4.1
Buffalo - 3.2
Miami -   3.0
Akron -   2.4
U.Mass -   .6

West
NIU -     6.9
Ball St - 5.9
Toledo -  5.7
WMU -     3.3
CMU -     2.8
EMU -      .8

The computer projects double digit wins for Ohio in all conference games except BG, where it projects a very close game but a loss. It projects BG with wins in all games, but many of them are expected projected to be close games where they might lose one or two. Because of the way the tiebreaker works, then net projection is a 53% chance that BG is the MAC East champion, and a .47% chance it is Ohio, basically too close to call. Given that Ohio and BG should be far above the rest of the East, I would be very surprised if it doesn't take at least a 7-1 record to win the East.

These forecasts are in line with the National Consensus, which has Ohio-BG as a very close race, and Ball State-Toledo as a toss-up for 2d behind NIU. Really the only place i differ is that I have Kent ahead of Buffalo.
Bert Presley
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Posted: 8/16/2013 7:42 PM
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Games are played on the field. I don't care what the computers say. If you would have ran the Program in 2005 for the Pitt game, sure it would've played out Pitt winning.
OhioStunter
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Posted: 8/16/2013 9:02 PM
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Is this your computer?
Last Edited: 8/16/2013 9:50:02 PM by OhioStunter
JSF
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Posted: 8/17/2013 12:41 AM
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Bert Presley wrote:expand_more
Games are played on the field. I don't care what the computers say.


We're still on this crap? Everyone knows games are played by actual people. Nobody is making the suggestion outcomes are a given or predetermined by computer. What they do is a pretty good job of giving you a reasonable idea of what to expect in a situation where randomness is essentially taken out of the equation. The randomness of a single game still exists, which is why exactly zero computer forecasters suggest you take the predictions as gospel. It's information.
L.C.
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Posted: 8/17/2013 1:11 AM
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JSF wrote:expand_more
...Everyone knows games are played by actual people. Nobody is making the suggestion outcomes are a given or predetermined by computer. ...

Exactly. Obviously there is no way for Ohio to win exactly 6.8 games, so it clearly is not a deterministic number. The idea is that the number of wins that Ohio ends up with is likely to be in the vicinity of 6.8. They might win 7, or even 8, or only 4, 5, or 6, depending on injuries, how the ball bounces, etc. Could Buffalo or Kent win the East, instead of it being BG or Ohio? Sure, anyone can.
Deciduous Forest Cat
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Posted: 8/17/2013 11:00 AM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
...Everyone knows games are played by actual people. Nobody is making the suggestion outcomes are a given or predetermined by computer. ...

Exactly. Obviously there is no way for Ohio to win exactly 6.8 games, so it clearly is not a deterministic number. The idea is that the number of wins that Ohio ends up with is likely to be in the vicinity of 6.8. They might win 7, or even 8, or only 4, 5, or 6, depending on injuries, how the ball bounces, etc. Could Buffalo or Kent win the East, instead of it being BG or Ohio? Sure, anyone can.


Man, remember two decades ago... what we would have given to win 6.8 games? ;)
Bert Presley
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Posted: 8/17/2013 12:18 PM
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Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:expand_more
...Everyone knows games are played by actual people. Nobody is making the suggestion outcomes are a given or predetermined by computer. ...

Exactly. Obviously there is no way for Ohio to win exactly 6.8 games, so it clearly is not a deterministic number. The idea is that the number of wins that Ohio ends up with is likely to be in the vicinity of 6.8. They might win 7, or even 8, or only 4, 5, or 6, depending on injuries, how the ball bounces, etc. Could Buffalo or Kent win the East, instead of it being BG or Ohio? Sure, anyone can.


Man, remember two decades ago... what we would have given to win 6.8 games? ;)


I gave my 4th born male child to Scientology. 
L.C.
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Posted: 8/27/2013 1:12 PM
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This website uses about the same methodology as I do, but presumably a much more sophisticated version of it, and runs it for all the teams, not just Ohio. Last year their predictions were about the same as mine. This year they are very similar as well. As the year progresses, and actual results come in, and we update our predictions based on them, my predictions and theirs will converge. For now the green tint to my glasses leads to a forecast of 9.8 wins for Ohio, while they have only 7.
Last Edited: 8/27/2013 1:15:29 PM by L.C.
C Money
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C Money
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Posted: 8/27/2013 1:59 PM
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That TeamRankings.com site has us less likely to beat North Texas than Terd? 
OhioStunter
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Posted: 8/27/2013 2:48 PM
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Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:expand_more
...Everyone knows games are played by actual people. Nobody is making the suggestion outcomes are a given or predetermined by computer. ...

Exactly. Obviously there is no way for Ohio to win exactly 6.8 games, so it clearly is not a deterministic number. The idea is that the number of wins that Ohio ends up with is likely to be in the vicinity of 6.8. They might win 7, or even 8, or only 4, 5, or 6, depending on injuries, how the ball bounces, etc. Could Buffalo or Kent win the East, instead of it being BG or Ohio? Sure, anyone can.


Man, remember two decades ago... what we would have given to win 6.8 games? ;)


One year I think we only won .8 games.
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