I would agree with most of that article. I've seen it happen over and over. Some schools have certain advantages that lead to them winning, year after year, regardless of coach. Others have situation where they lose, year after year.  That said, it does happen now and again where a coaching change takes a program with a losing record, and converts them to a winning record. The fact that it does actually happen, once in awhile, is exactly why schools keep trying.

It does raise an interesting question, though. A school like NIU or Toledo has a tradition of winning. Is continuing to win at those schools a good predictor of future success? Coaches that come in and continue to win routinely get hired by BCS schools for a big paycheck. It would be interesting to see which is a better predictor of success - to come in and turn around a less successful program, or to continue to win at one that is already successful.