Bowling Green, Toledo, Buffalo, Kent State then sadly the team we saw today is maybe still the 8th best team.
We may have 6 or 7 bowl eligible teams because everyone gets to beat up on the other 6. The odds of getting 6 or 7 MAC going bowling are pretty low so we need to win more than 6 or 7. If we just beat CMU, EMU, Miami, and UMass we'd have 8. Even 8 might not be enough.
You're right. This year there aren't nearly as many teams that are bowl ineligible because of NCAA violations as there were last year, so there will be fewer unfilled spots than last year. There are 70 bowl spots and there were 68 teams that were at least halfway to bowl eligibility by their fourth game, so they only have to win three of their last eight to be bowl eligible. A MAC team might have to win nine games this year to have a real shot at a spot outside the three MAC bowls.
Who is bowl ineligible besides Georgia State (and Appalachian State,, Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, and UNC-Charlotte who have not transitioned with a 1A schedule)?