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Topic: NIU is better than Oregon
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Kevin Finnegan
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Posted: 10/27/2013 10:16 PM
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At least according to Jeff Sagarin in the new BCS poll. He has NIU ranked #3 behind Alabama and FSU, ahead of Ohio State and Oregon and everyone else. espn.go.com/college-football/bcs
mf279801
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Posted: 10/28/2013 12:01 AM
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finnOhio wrote:expand_more
At least according to Jeff Sagarin in the new BCS poll. He has NIU ranked #3 behind Alabama and FSU, ahead of Ohio State and Oregon and everyone else. espn.go.com/college-football/bcs

That is, according to the formula that Jeff Sagarin must use for the BCS rankings (ELO-Chess), which by rule may not consider margin of victory. His other ranking formula, PREDICTOR, does consider margin of victory (and he considers it more accurate/reflective of the season). That one ranks NIU #56, Oregon #2

 
L.C.
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Posted: 10/28/2013 2:04 AM
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His predictor rankings have all 6 of the top MAC teams very close:

NIU         72.20    #56
Ball State  71.12    #59
BG          70.95    #62
Buffalo     70.53    #64
Toledo      70.27    #67
Ohio        68.26    #72

 

 

C Money
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Posted: 10/28/2013 7:26 AM
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mf279801 wrote:expand_more
That is, according to the formula that Jeff Sagarin must use for the BCS rankings (ELO-Chess), which by rule may not consider margin of victory. His other ranking formula, PREDICTOR, does consider margin of victory (and he considers it more accurate/reflective of the season). That one ranks NIU #56, Oregon #2
 


The ELO-Chess last week had Bethune-Cookman #4 or 5 I think.
L.C.
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Posted: 10/28/2013 11:26 AM
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....which is just another sign that a system based only on wins-losses is never going to be that great. It just isn't enough data. The Predictor ratings use margin of victory for extra information, and thus are more accurate. Sportswriters/Coaches use even more data from actually watching the games, so they can also be more accurate.
colobobcat66
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Posted: 10/28/2013 11:47 AM
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From another thread, there are some who discount stats against bad teams, while at the same time advocating undefeated teams who play lesser schedules as being worthy of a national championship game opportunity because they won every game they played and they can't help it if they have a weak schedule.You can't have it both ways. In my opinion, the quality of the opponent does mean something on both counts.
Victory
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Posted: 10/28/2013 12:08 PM
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I don't really understand this.  Usually Massey, Wolfe, Sagarin, Colley have pretty similar rankings.  They don't work similarly from what we know about them but they usually produce similar results.  There is a site on the internet that classifies computer rankings.  Most "Advanced Retrodiction" algorithms, which is what these four are give a ranking of 15-20 for NIU and Fresno State right now as Massey, Wolfe and Colley are.  I'm a bit baffled by Sagarin's ranking of NIU.
L.C.
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Posted: 10/28/2013 12:12 PM
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When a team has never lost, a system that can't take into account any external information has no way to rank them. If you can only take into account wins and losses, how can a no-loss team not be ranked ahead of other teams with 1 loss? Once a team loses, now you know who to put them under. By the end of the year, most teams will have a loss, and there will be more connections between teams, so the rankings will all come out pretty similar.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 10/28/2013 12:14 PM
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Wait a minute.  There's an ocean's difference between great stats against bad teams and going undefeated for a season. 

The former is generally pretty easy and a single game achievement.  The latter is very, very difficult--else why does it happen so infrequently--and must be accomplished over a whole season.

The former can come from an emotional peak or unusual plays or circumstances.  The latter comes from talent, maturity, ability to execute consistently.



 
Victory
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Posted: 10/28/2013 3:47 PM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
When a team has never lost, a system that can't take into account any external information has no way to rank them. If you can only take into account wins and losses, how can a no-loss team not be ranked ahead of other teams with 1 loss? Once a team loses, now you know who to put them under. By the end of the year, most teams will have a loss, and there will be more connections between teams, so the rankings will all come out pretty similar.

This is correct.  Both Humans and computers will vary the most on teams that have played a schedule where none of the opponents on on their apparent level - Either all substantially better, all substantially worse. or the unusual strange combination of some of both (can actually happen to a school that is a doormat of a really strong league).  If W/L records are equal how does the team with the weaker schedule end up ahead of teams with lesser schedules?  I can see NIU being ahead of Fresno State and maybe even in the general ballpark of Baylor or Miami because they haven't beaten a great team yet.  But how do they end up ahead of Oregon or even Ohio State?  I can't understand what is in the algorithm that could cause that to happen.
 
colobobcat66
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Posted: 10/28/2013 4:52 PM
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The BCS rankings are based on 2/3 polls. Polls take into account schedules and style points.
colobobcat66
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Posted: 10/28/2013 4:53 PM
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Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
Wait a minute. There's an ocean's difference between great stats against bad teams and going undefeated for a season.

The former is generally pretty easy and a single game achievement. The latter is very, very difficult--else why does it happen so infrequently--and must be accomplished over a whole season.

The former can come from an emotional peak or unusual plays or circumstances. The latter comes from talent, maturity, ability to execute consistently.
and sometimes an easy schedule , see Hawaii a few years back
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 10/28/2013 6:38 PM
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When did the Bows do it?

And, if season undefeated is so easy, then why hasn't it been accomplished more often by MAC teams given that any good team will have as little as 1-2 mildly difficult games in conference (with the rest being pretty much walkovers)?

 
L.C.
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Posted: 10/28/2013 8:15 PM
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Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
...And, if season undefeated is so easy, then why hasn't it been accomplished more often by MAC teams given that any good team will have as little as 1-2 mildly difficult games in conference (with the rest being pretty much walkovers)?

Most MAC teams have to play a money game or two every year, and almost all of those are losses.
UpSan Bobcat
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Posted: 10/28/2013 8:28 PM
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Going undefeated is difficult. Even if a team is 95 percent likely to win each game individually on its schedule, it is only 51.3 percent likely to win 13 times in a row. You've got to be really good and a little lucky to go undefeated.
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Posted: 10/28/2013 8:47 PM
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Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
When did the Bows do it?

And, if season undefeated is so easy, then why hasn't it been accomplished more often by MAC teams given that any good team will have as little as 1-2 mildly difficult games in conference (with the rest being pretty much walkovers)?
2007 regular season, lost to Georgia in bowl
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 10/28/2013 9:07 PM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
Most MAC teams have to play a money game or two every year, and almost all of those are losses.


I wonder if this will change at all in 2014 when the playoff money starts to roll into the MAC and other Gang of 5 schools.  It'll only be about a million per school (a little less until we kick out EMU), but that's more than most money games.  Money games will still be very helpful to enhance the overall budget, but they may not be absolutely necessary just to balance it.  However, keeping a money game or two will make schools less dependent (though not completely independent) of student fees.  Kind of double edge sword here. 
NIU007b
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Posted: 10/30/2013 6:02 PM
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Victory wrote:expand_more
When a team has never lost, a system that can't take into account any external information has no way to rank them. If you can only take into account wins and losses, how can a no-loss team not be ranked ahead of other teams with 1 loss? Once a team loses, now you know who to put them under. By the end of the year, most teams will have a loss, and there will be more connections between teams, so the rankings will all come out pretty similar.

This is correct.  Both Humans and computers will vary the most on teams that have played a schedule where none of the opponents on on their apparent level - Either all substantially better, all substantially worse. or the unusual strange combination of some of both (can actually happen to a school that is a doormat of a really strong league).  If W/L records are equal how does the team with the weaker schedule end up ahead of teams with lesser schedules?  I can see NIU being ahead of Fresno State and maybe even in the general ballpark of Baylor or Miami because they haven't beaten a great team yet.  But how do they end up ahead of Oregon or even Ohio State?  I can't understand what is in the algorithm that could cause that to happen.
 


Maybe we're just really that awesome. Did you ever think of that? Huh?
OhioStunter
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Posted: 10/30/2013 6:15 PM
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NIU007b wrote:expand_more
When a team has never lost, a system that can't take into account any external information has no way to rank them. If you can only take into account wins and losses, how can a no-loss team not be ranked ahead of other teams with 1 loss? Once a team loses, now you know who to put them under. By the end of the year, most teams will have a loss, and there will be more connections between teams, so the rankings will all come out pretty similar.

This is correct.  Both Humans and computers will vary the most on teams that have played a schedule where none of the opponents on on their apparent level - Either all substantially better, all substantially worse. or the unusual strange combination of some of both (can actually happen to a school that is a doormat of a really strong league).  If W/L records are equal how does the team with the weaker schedule end up ahead of teams with lesser schedules?  I can see NIU being ahead of Fresno State and maybe even in the general ballpark of Baylor or Miami because they haven't beaten a great team yet.  But how do they end up ahead of Oregon or even Ohio State?  I can't understand what is in the algorithm that could cause that to happen.
 


Maybe we're just really that awesome. Did you ever think of that? Huh?

I think it would be very interesting if NIU went undefeated this year. Of course, Herby would have this reaction on air when the bowl pairings are announced:
Hork

 
Sony7
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Posted: 10/31/2013 12:56 PM
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NIU is a very very good football team - agreed! However; can you compare them to a Baylor, Alabama or OSU? I root for the Huskies every week, but they will fall eventually. Hopefully to OHIO in the MAC Championship game. If NI goes undefeated, how long do you think it will take before they think they should jump conferences again? It's like history repeats itself. We should not let them back in the MAC if they even try it. By the way NI - all you have going for you is football, your athletic program as a whole kind of sucks!
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Posted: 11/1/2013 6:59 PM
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Sony7 wrote:expand_more
NIU is a very very good football team - agreed! However; can you compare them to a Baylor, Alabama or OSU? I root for the Huskies every week, but they will fall eventually. Hopefully to OHIO in the MAC Championship game. If NI goes undefeated, how long do you think it will take before they think they should jump conferences again? It's like history repeats itself. We should not let them back in the MAC if they even try it. By the way NI - all you have going for you is football, your athletic program as a whole kind of sucks!


Well, if you couldn't tell, I was kidding. And I don't see NIU trying to go anywhere.  The last time we left it was to go independent and they obviously wouldn't try that now. The only conferences that would be worth moving to would be P5 conferences, and we won't be getting any invites there.  The AAC maybe but who knows which schools would be left by the time we got there? I would like to see the MAC have a number of consistently good programs and hopefully the bottom teams will get a little better.  If NIU goes downhill somebody else needs to take our place getting ranked. Then we can all happily stay in the MAC, with a somewhat better conference reputation.

We did have good volleyball and soccer teams recently. It's too bad they cut men's gymnastics many years ago, we had a very good team back then.  I think the new IPF will help some.
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