Midway through the MAC season, some clarity is starting to emerge. There are 3 good teams on each side on the conference. Among these 6 teams there are only two crossover games pitting a top team in the East against a top team in the West, those being Toledo at BG which is this weekend, and Buffalo at Toledo on November 12th. Those games will have a major impact on both races.

In the West:
It comes down to Ball State, NIU, and Toledo. Each of these, in games against the other two, plays one at home, and one on the road. Ball State already beat Toledo to win their home game, but has to play NIU on the road. NIU has the home game remaining against Ball State, but must play Toledo on the road. If everyone wins at home, and loses on the road, and they all take care of their other games, they will all have 1 loss, and you could get some crazy tie-breaker scenarios.

The problem here is that the scheduling gods were not nice to Toledo, and that while Ball State and NIU play none of the best teams in the East, Toledo plays 2 of them. In order to get to these crazy tie-breakers, Toledo must win both crossover games, the first being this weekend's Toledo-BG game. If Toledo loses to either BG or Buffalo, the 3-way tie scenario is out, which brings us to the likely scenario that the West will be decided on November 13th by the Ball State at NIU game.

In the East:
Ohio already messed up against CMU, so they must now win out to win the East. Both their key games are on the road, @BG, and @ Buffalo, and so they will be underdogs in both games. Ohio has no choice, they must win out. Win out, they go to the MACC, lose any game they don't.

If Ohio doesn't win out, then the winner of the East will be the winner of the BG-Buffalo game if they also beat either Toledo or Ohio. There is one crazy scenario out there that leads to crazy co-championships, and wild tie-breakers. Suppose that Toledo beats both Buffalo and BG, and that Ohio-Buffalo-BG split games. Then you end up with a 3 co-champs of the East at 5-2, and 3 co-champs in the West, with all teams at 6-1. Let's not even go there.

Team Rankings rates the odds this way:
                   Divisional Champ      MAC Champ
NIU                      56.9%             33.1%
Ball State               39.2%             21.4%
Toledo                    3.9%              2.1%

Buffalo                  22.8%              8.7%
BG                       59.5%             26.9%
Ohio                     17.6%              7.7%

Nope. I'm telling you I believe.

Okay so to be hypothetical,say we split Beefs and BG and beat Fiami, Kent and UMASS?  Coupled with a Toledo sweep of the East.  That would put us all at 6-2 with a record of 1-1 against the West.  BG would be 8-4, Beefs would be 8-4, and we'd be 9-3.  Would that make us the East representative?

I'm not sure, but tiebreaker No. 2 might be worded the way it is, noting raking order, to prevent a team from being punished for not playing one of the teams in the division: Record of tied teams within the division [versus rank order, highest to lowest, of division teams].

The Toledo win over BG preserves the possibility of a bizarre finish with 3 way ties in both East and West. Meanwhile, NIU, Ball State, Ohio, and Buffalo all still control their own destiny, while Toledo and BG now need help.

NIU                      51.0%             31.5% Down Slightly
Ball State               42.7%             23.9% Up slightly
Toledo                    6.3%              3.5% Up slightly

Buffalo                  37.8%             14.9% Up a lot
BG                       42.7%             18.2% Down a lot
Ohio                     19.5%              8.0%  Barely up
Losing to Toledo made BG drop a lot, but they are still favored to win the East by Team Rankings. The Ohio-Buffalo game will move things a lot.

I went to the coach's show at Donatos last night. I came away with the impression that Frank will be bringing his "A" game to the remaining part of the schedule.  He seemed very confident without being cocky.  He also seemed very relaxed and was quite sarcastic and humorous.  At one point, he told Russell that he'd like to hire him as a defensive coordinator -- for the other team!  This was in response to a statement that Russell had made about the fade route in the end zone that Frank took exception to.  I've noticed in the past that when Frank is in this kind of a mood, he seems to do his best coaching.  Just one man's anecdotal observation.  No rigorous data or statistical analysis to back it up.

Coach Solich has been at this a long time. If you are thinking/expecting he has his team peaking every week, well, I don't.  This is not to say they are jogging thru games.  They are expected to outperform the opponent every week. However, there is an intensity that comes when your back is against the wall.  What is being said is at this point coach is feeling the wall and well I hope you get it.