I think the BBVA Compass Bowl might be a possibility still. The thought was it would go to a MAC team because the SEC wouldn't be able to fill its spot, but then Miss State won the Egg Bowl gave the SEC its 10th team. But if an SEC team (Alabama) gets an at large bid to the BCS, we're right back where we started. Plus, if both SMU and Rutgers lose, the Big East won't be have enough teams to fill the spots in either the BOB Bowl or the Compass Bowl.
The MAC may have actually done something smart in securing so many secondary tie-ins.
I think the BBVA has priority over the Advocare Bowl in terms of SEC placement. My guess is for the BBVA to be in play, the MAC would need both AAC teams (SMU, Rutgers) to lose this weekend. If 2 SEC teams go to the BCS, then Advocare would open up and that would be a true at large, and probably not one a MAC school would land into this year.
Taking a second look at it, you're right. My math was off. Indy Bowl is SEC No. 10 and Compass Bowl SEC No. 9. In my head I was thinking 2 SEC teams in the BCS means SEC No. 10 and SEC No. 9 open up. But SEC No. 1 is one of the BCS selections, so only the Indy Bowl opens up.
Still, Rutgers has not been looking good lately, and USF is looking better, so both SMU and Rutgers losing is a definitely possibility.