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Topic: The race to fill the bowl slots
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Pataskala
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Posted: 10/14/2013 9:29 PM
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FINAL UPDATE (for those still interested): There are 79 bowl-eligible teams plus UTSA, but UTSA appears to no longer be considered to fill a slot.  The "In Solid" column assumes that all bowl-eligible AQs will go to a bowl, regardless of record.  San Jose St (6-6) is put in this column even though Colo St has 7 wins; both are 5-3 in the MWC and SJSU beat Colo St plus has the marquee win over Fresno.  At this point, there are 68 teams that are "in solid," so there appear to be only two open bowl slots.  Buffalo and WKU should get them.  Bowl tie-ins could affect all this, as well as any AQ teams being overlooked.  Asterisks denote that one BCS slot is included in the conference total.  The five italicized teams are 6-6 AQ teams whose conference has more eligible teams than slots to fill; these teams are likely to be looking for a slot to fill.  The Open Bowls are those that have the last pick from the conferences that don't have enough eligible teams to fill all the slots, except for the Poinsettia, which was to be filled by Army.  The bowl in brackets might come open if the conference fills two BCS slots.  The italicized teams could fill some of these slots. 

Conference (Slots)

In Solid

In But Waiting

Open Bowls

8-win

7-win

6-win

American (6*)

(5) UCF, Louisville, Cincy, Houston, Rutgers

 

 

 

Beef O’Brady’s

ACC (8*)

(11) FSU, Clemson, Duke, Miami(F), Va Tech, Ga Tech, BC, Maryland, Pitt, UNC, Syracuse

 

 

 

 

Big 12 (7*)

(6) Baylor, Okla St, Okla, Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas St.

 

 

 

Pinstripe, [Texas]

Big Ten (8*)

(7) MSU, OSU, Wis, Minn, Neb, Iowa, Mich

 

 

 

Pizza, [Heart of Dallas]

Pac-12 (7*)

(9) Stanford, Arizona St, Oregon, UCLA, USC, Wash, Arizona, Ore St, Wash St

 

 

 

 

SEC (10*)

(10) Auburn, Bama, Mizzou, SoCar, LSU, Texas A&M, Miss, Georgia, Vandy, Miss St

 

 

 

[Independence]

BSC At-Large (4)

///////////////////////////

////////

/////////

////////////

 //////////////////////

AQ Total (50)

48

0

0

0

3-6

CUSA (6)

(6) Rice, Marshall, ECU, Tulane, N. Texas, MTSU

 

 

FAU

 

Indies (3)

(3) ND, BYU {Fight Hunger}, Navy {Armed Forces}

 

 

 

Poinsettia

MAC (3)

(3) NIU, BSU, BG

Buffalo

Toledo; Ohio

CMU

 

MWC (6)

(6) Fresno St, Boise, Utah St, San Diego St, UNLV, San Jose St

 

Colo St

 

 

Sun Belt (2)

(2) La-Laf, Ark St

WKU

 

Texas St; Troy; ULM; S. Bama

 

Non-AQ Total (20)

20

2

3

6

1

GRAND TOTAL (70)

68

2

3

6

4-7
Last Edited: 12/7/2013 11:56:57 PM by Pataskala
catfan28
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Posted: 10/15/2013 1:04 AM
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With less schools on probation, it's going to be even harder this year. I think 9 wins might be a must to get us feeling comfortable. 8 at a minimum.
Victory
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Posted: 10/15/2013 11:14 AM
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I think only 4 MAC teams will go in the end.
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Posted: 10/15/2013 11:34 AM
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Posted: 10/15/2013 1:07 PM
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Pataskala wrote:expand_more
This may invite a visit from Coach Mora, but here's the latest on the race to fill the 70 bowl slots.  After week 7, 11 teams are already in and another 71 have to win half or fewer of their remaining games to become bowl eligible.  Asterisks denote that one BCS slot is included in the conference total.  Italics denote transition teams that may become bowl eligible based on last year's criteria from the NCAA (i.e., they could be chosen if slots remain open after all other eligible D1A teams are chosen).  The NCAA shows this year's transition teams to be App St, ODU, Ga Southern, Ga State and UTSA.

 

Conference (Slots)

Teams Already In

Teams ≥ .500

Teams Already Out

American (6*)

(1) Louisville

(4) Houston (5-0), UCF (4-1), Cincy (4-2), Rutgers (4-2)

 

ACC (8*)

(2) Clemson, Va Tech

(10) FSU (5-0), Miami(F) (5-0), Maryland (5-1), Duke (4-2), Pitt (3-2), Syracuse (3-3), BC (3-3), Wake (3-3), NC St (3-3), Ga Tech (3-3)

 

Big 12 (7*)

(1) Texas Tech

(6) Baylor (5-0), Okla (5-1), OK St (4-1), Texas (4-2), TCU (3-3), WVU (3-3)

 

Big Ten (8*)

(1) OSU

(9) MSU (5-1), Neb (5-1), Mich (5-1), Iowa (4-2), Minn (4-2), NW (4-2), Wis (4-2), Illinois (3-2), Ind (3-3)

Penn St

CUSA (6)

 

(5) Tulane (5-2), Marshall (4-2), ECU (4-2), Rice (4-2), N. Tex (3-3)

 

Indies (3)

 

(3) BYU (4-2), ND (4-2), Navy (3-2), ODU (4-2)

 

MAC (3)

(2) NIU, BSU

(4) BG (5-2), Buffalo (4-2), Ohio (4-2), Toledo (3-3)

WMU

MWC (6)

 

(7) Fresno St (5-0), UNLV (4-2), Wyoming (4-2), Boise (4-2), San Diego St (3-3), Nevada (3-3), San Jose St (3-3)

 

Pac-12 (7*)

(1) Oregon

(9) UCLA (5-0), Oregon St (5-1), Stanford (5-1), Wash (4-2), Ariz St (4-2), Utah (4-2), USC (4-2), Ariz (3-2), Wash St (4-3)

 

SEC (10*)

(3) Bama, Mizzou, LSU

(9) SC (5-1), Auburn (5-1), Tx A&M (5-1), Florida (4-2), Georgia (4-2), Tenn (3-3), Vandy (3-3), Miss (3-3), Miss St (3-3)

 

Sun Belt (2)

 

(5) WKU (4-2), Troy (4-3), La-Laf (3-3), Ark St (3-3), Texas St (3-3)

 

BSC At-Large (4)

 

 

 

TOTAL (70)

11

71 (+ODU)

2

I love this chart, You do know you HAVE opened the can of worms and we will now expect this to be updated everyweek by  Saturday at midnight Pacific time..

Nice job. I love it..

 
Victory
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Posted: 10/15/2013 1:28 PM
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More information on who is likely to be eligible can be found on sites like this where the odds of winning each future game are considered.  TeamRankings specifically would say 76 eligible teams when you add the percents up.
Casper71
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Posted: 10/15/2013 2:00 PM
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USATODAY today has us on the outside looking in with 5 MAC schools bowling...Balls, BG, Buff, Toledo and NIU.  Looks like we just need to beat Buff and BG on the road and take care of business everywhere else in the East to go bowling again.  What are the odds of that?  More or LESS than 50-50?
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Posted: 10/15/2013 2:08 PM
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Prediction: We beat both Beefs and Ziggy-Zoombas IF we don't have any of our punts blocked or otherwise screwed up (safeties in the end zone) and don't drop any of their punts. I seriously doubt that we'll come out flat in either of these games.  GO OHIO!
Pataskala
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Posted: 10/15/2013 2:09 PM
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Chris_PHS89 wrote:expand_more

I love this chart, You do know you HAVE opened the can of worms and we will now expect this to be updated everyweek by  Saturday at midnight Pacific time..

Nice job. I love it..

 


I'm glad you appreciate it.  Last season I usually had it updated by noon ET Sunday. 
Pataskala
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Posted: 10/15/2013 10:33 PM
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I didn't put teams that are one game under .500 on the chart because there are so few of them, about one per conference.  But one that will likely show up this week and ultimately get bowl eligible is Army.  They're 3-4 and the remainder of their schedule is pretty soft: @ Temps (0-6); @ AFA (1-6); home to WKU (4-2); @ Hawaii (0-6); & vs. Navy (3-2).  They could win at least three of those last five and go to the Poinsettia Bowl.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 10/15/2013 10:53 PM
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Temps at 0-6.  Time to make MH65, or was it 56, the head coach and change the mascot to the boa.  
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Posted: 10/18/2013 3:08 PM
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I think Old Dominion and possibly Georgia State, South Alabama and UTSA are not eligible because of transitioning years from FCS to FBS.. 

Anyone know for sure?

 
Pataskala
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Posted: 10/18/2013 3:17 PM
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Chris_PHS89 wrote:expand_more
I think Old Dominion and possibly Georgia State, South Alabama and UTSA are not eligible because of transitioning years from FCS to FBS.. 

Anyone know for sure?

 


Last year when it looked like there wouldn't be enough teams with 6-6 records or better to fill the bowl slots, the NCAA came up with a contingency plan that included allowing transition teams with at least a 6-6 record to go to a bowl (see this).  They could go only if there were no other 1A teams with at least 6 regular season wins available.  I haven't seen anything withdrawing this plan for this season, and ESPN (my key source for this sort of thing) doesn't list any of the transition teams as ineligible, even though they've noted Penn St as such all season.
Last Edited: 10/18/2013 3:18:51 PM by Pataskala
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Posted: 10/20/2013 6:30 PM
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OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
Prediction: We beat both Beefs and Ziggy-Zoombas IF we don't have any of our punts blocked or otherwise screwed up (safeties in the end zone) and don't drop any of their punts. I seriously doubt that we'll come out flat in either of these games.  GO OHIO!

Buffalo for the team is going to be a super bowl for the Cats. The team knows the season is toast without a win there. Buffalo is not used to playing in a championship type atmosphere and is beatable. Bowling Green is a legitimate MAC Championship contender with a Top 10 defense. On paper they have a better team and its going to be an uphill climb.

 
Casper71
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Posted: 10/22/2013 1:36 PM
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USATODAY today has 5 MAC teams in Bowls and OHIO is not, as of now, one of them!

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2013/10/22/bowl-projections-bcs-title-game-oregon-alabama-major-changes/3149131/

We better beat BG and/or Buffs or we are out for sure even at 8-4!
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Posted: 10/22/2013 1:39 PM
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Casper71 wrote:expand_more
USATODAY today has 5 MAC teams in Bowls and OHIO is not, as of now, one of them!

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2013/10/22/bowl-projections-bcs-title-game-oregon-alabama-major-changes/3149131/

We better beat BG and/or Buffs or we are out for sure even at 8-4!


While I think we had better (and should) beat BG and UB, we are not "out for sure even at 8-4". This is just hyperbole and/or scaremongering.
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Posted: 10/27/2013 3:37 PM
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We are setting up a scenario where there could be four 8-4 teams in the mac. Bowl selection could come down to conference record and quality ooc wins.
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Posted: 10/27/2013 4:38 PM
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1 Central FL 100.0%
2 Louisville 100.0%
3 Houston 100.0%
4 Florida St 100.0%
5 Clemson 100.0%
6 Miami (FL) 100.0%
7 VA Tech 100.0%
8 GA Tech 100.0%
9 Duke 100.0%
10 Baylor 100.0%
11 Oklahoma St 100.0%
12 Oklahoma 100.0%
13 Texas Tech 100.0%
14 Ohio State 100.0%
15 Wisconsin 100.0%
16 Michigan St 100.0%
17 Michigan 100.0%
18 Minnesota 100.0%
19 E Carolina 100.0%
20 Rice 100.0%
21 Tulane 100.0%
22 Notre Dame 100.0%
23 BYU 100.0%
24 Buffalo 100.0%
25 Ohio 100.0%
26 Ball State 100.0%
27 N Illinois 100.0%
28 Boise State 100.0%
29 Fresno St 100.0%
30 Oregon 100.0%
31 Stanford 100.0%
32 Oregon St 100.0%
33 Missouri 100.0%
34 S Carolina 100.0%
35 Alabama 100.0%
36 Auburn 100.0%
37 LSU 100.0%
38 Texas A&M 100.0%
39 LA Lafayette 100.0%
40 Bowling Grn 99.9%
41 Toledo 99.9%
42 Marshall 99.8%
43 North Texas 99.8%
44 Utah State 99.8%
45 Mississippi 99.8%
46 Texas 99.7%
47 Washington 99.7%
48 UCLA 99.7%
49 Arizona St 99.6%
50 Arizona 98.9%
51 Nebraska 97.9%
52 Middle Tenn 97.9%
53 Georgia 97.3%
54 Cincinnati 96.6%
55 Iowa 95.8%
56 Florida 93.9%
57 USC 93.6%
58 Maryland 92.7%
59 Navy 92.4%
60 Texas State 92.3%
61 Rutgers 91.3%
62 Troy 89.2%
63 W Kentucky 88.1%
64 UNLV 82.1%
65 San Jose St 80.7%
66 Kansas St 78.7%
67 Utah 72.9%
68 Vanderbilt 71.8%
69 Arkansas St 67.6%
70 Pittsburgh 59.2%
71 Tennessee 57.8%
72 S Alabama 57.3%
73 Boston Col 56.9%
74 Indiana 55.1%
75 Northwestern 55.0%
76 Miss State 51.4%
77 Colorado St 51.1%
78 N Carolina 50.3%
79 San Diego St 47.5%
80 Fla Atlantic 47.2%
81 LA Monroe 37.5%
82 Syracuse 34.6%
83 Central Mich 29.6%
84 NC State 28.9%
85 Wake Forest 28.3%
86 Wyoming 28.1%
87 TX-San Ant 28.0%
88 TX Christian 23.1%
89 Wash State 21.1%
90 S Methodist 19.8%
91 Illinois 17.7%
92 Army 17.5%
93 W Virginia 17.2%
94 Memphis 14.9%
95 LA Tech 14.0%
96 Tulsa 11.7%
97 Nevada 5.5%
98 Colorado 1.5%
99 UAB 1.3%
100 New Mexico 1.1%
101 Arkansas 0.8%
102 S Florida 0.5%
103 Kentucky 0.3%
104 Virginia 0.2%
105 Iowa State 0.2%
106 Kansas 0.2%
107 Temple 0.0%
108 Connecticut 0.0%
109 Penn State 0.0%
110 Purdue 0.0%
111 Florida Intl 0.0%
112 S Mississippi 0.0%
113 TX El Paso 0.0%
114 Idaho 0.0%
115 N Mex State 0.0%
116 Kent State 0.0%
117 Akron 0.0%
118 U Mass 0.0%
119 Miami (OH) 0.0%
120 W Michigan 0.0%
121 E Michigan 0.0%
122 Air Force 0.0%
123 Hawaii 0.0%
124 California 0.0%
125 Georgia State 0.0%
    7641.8%

So according to teamrankings 76 is still the mean number.
 
Teams at >85% - 63
Teams 50%-85% - 15
Teams 15%-50 - 15
Teams <15% - 32

Given the fact that the MWC and CUSA still have bowl tie-ins based on the strength that they were before they got picked over they may have enough existing contracts to cover their eligible teams.  Nearly all of the teams eligible that will get left home will be MAC and Sunbelt teams.  If there are 76 or 77 eligible teams then I think that its is a very good bet that we need to win 9 games.

Last Edited: 10/27/2013 4:42:56 PM by Victory
Casper71
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Posted: 11/3/2013 1:06 AM
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I'd say Toledo and NIU took care of business today.  Still say we MUST beat either Buffs or BeeGees and take care of Kent and UMASS that both lost today to get to a Bowl and 9-3.
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Posted: 11/3/2013 11:18 AM
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Casper71 wrote:expand_more
I'd say Toledo and NIU took care of business today. Still say we MUST beat either Buffs or BeeGees and take care of Kent and UMASS that both lost today to get to a Bowl and 9-3.
and I don't think that scenario would guarantee us a bowl bid as it more depends on teams outside the MAC since it only has 3 primary bowl tie ins.
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Posted: 11/3/2013 12:02 PM
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Via twitter, Army agreement is as you state, 6 wins before Army-Navy game. So they're out, and the Poinsettia backup for them is the MAC, giving us four guaranteed slots now.
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Posted: 11/3/2013 12:47 PM
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anorris wrote:expand_more
Via twitter, Army agreement is as you state, 6 wins before Army-Navy game. So they're out, and the Poinsettia backup for them is the MAC, giving us four guaranteed slots now.
do you or anybody have a list of all the back-up or secondary spots for the MAC?
anorris
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Posted: 11/3/2013 12:57 PM
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Can't vouch for every piece of accuracy, but everything I checked here checks out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_bids_to_college_bo...
Victory
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Posted: 11/3/2013 1:23 PM
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We are still looking at around six eligible teams staying home as the most likely per teamrankings.com.



Teams >85% 66
Teams 50% to 85% 11
Teams 15%-50% 10
Teams <15% 38







 
Pataskala
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Posted: 11/3/2013 2:13 PM
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anorris wrote:expand_more
Via twitter, Army agreement is as you state, 6 wins before Army-Navy game. So they're out, and the Poinsettia backup for them is the MAC, giving us four guaranteed slots now.


That puts Navy on a bit of a spot, too.  They're 4-4 with home games vs Hawaii (should be easy) and South Alabama (not so easy) plus San Jose St on the road (not easy).  If they don't win two of the next three their spot in the Armed Forces Bowl in Dallas (Ft Worth?) opens up.

Also I noticed this morning that ESPN has ODU not eligible.  I've always been suspect about their eligibility since they play 8 games vs 1AA schools; they haven't beaten a 1A school this season  I'm moving them to out.  It doesn't affect our chances because they would be in line after all other 6+-win teams anyway.
Last Edited: 11/3/2013 2:16:19 PM by Pataskala
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