... his picks are basically the same as last year's final standings.....so he's not really going too far out on a limb.
That's pretty normal as a starting point. If a team has huge losses, they get moved lower, and if a team has few losses, they get moved higher. Given the huge losses for the Bobcats on the offensive side, I'd expect most pundits to move them somewhat lower than last year's finish. Personally, because of the improvements I perceive in the defense, and in attitude, I expect them to finish somewhat above last year's finish.