menu
Logo
99+
Bobcat Attack Menu
Logo
99+
Ohio Football Topic
Topic: How Often Do Underdogs Win Outright?
Page: 1 of 1
Ted Thompson
Administrator
Member Since: 11/11/2004
Location: MAC Play
Post Count: 7,948
mail
Ted Thompson
mail
Posted: 7/31/2014 3:12 PM
settings_applications edit_note
Interesting article from Phil Steele: http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2014/JULY14/DBJuly31.html

The math:

1997-2013
Favorite of # of Games Lost Outright %
31.5 or more pts 756 7 0.93%
24.5-31 902 36 3.99%
17.5-24 1522 97 6.37%
14.5-17 984 127 12.91%
10.5-14 1656 346 20.89%
7.5-10 1543 399 25.86%
3.5-7 2854 997 34.93%
3 or less 1890 892 47.20%
brucecuth
General User
B
Member Since: 12/21/2004
Post Count: 1,855
person
mail
brucecuth
mail
Posted: 7/31/2014 5:07 PM
settings_applications edit_note
Interesting stats, particularly for those of us who like to wager.  Kind of illustrates what I was taught long ago:  When betting underdogs, don't simply take the points.  Split off maybe 25% of your wager and make a second bet on the underdog to win outright (the moneyline).  You'll make money over time on these bets because of bigger payoffs for outright wins. 
L.C.
General User
LC
Member Since: 9/1/2005
Post Count: 10,584
person
mail
L.C.
mail
Posted: 7/31/2014 6:55 PM
settings_applications edit_note
Those numbers are about what I would expect, but I see one curious thing about them. If you chart them, you don't get a nice neat curve, as you would expect.  In particular, the odds of the underdog winning when the point spread is in the 14.5-24 point range is somewhat lower than you'd think from the other points on the curve, or alternately, the odds of the underdog winning are somewhat higher than you'd expect from 10.5-14 and from 24-31.
Business_Cat
General User
Member Since: 11/17/2011
Post Count: 251
mail
Business_Cat
mail
Posted: 7/31/2014 8:28 PM
settings_applications edit_note
I'd also wager that the majority of the "underdog" teams are also the 'away' team. There are statistical advantages for the home team in nearly all sports. It'd be interesting to see the outcomes of games where the money team is away. 
Showing Messages: 1 - 4 of 4
reply
vertical_align_top
vertical_align_center
vertical_align_bottom
add_comment
MAC News Links



extra small (< 576px)
small (>= 576px)
medium (>= 768px)
large (>= 992px)
x-large (>= 1200px)
xx-large (>= 1400px)