Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Prediction for this week
Page: 1 of 1
L.C.
General User
LC
Member Since: 9/1/2005
Post Count: 10,584
person
mail
L.C.
mail
Posted: 9/15/2014 7:03 PM
I will make an easy prediction. I predict that Idaho gets a heavy load of AJ this week. In looking at the rushing stats thus far this year, on a game by game basis, the average yards/carry by game for each running back are:
Daz 3.6, 3.1, 3.6 = 3.4 yards/carry for the season
AJ 4.7, 4.0, 9.3 = 6.3 yards/carry for the season
Brown 4.6, n/a, 1.8 = 3.2 yards/carry for the season
White 3.8, n/a, n/a
Edmond 2.5, -1, 2.0 = .7 yards/carry for the season

In all three games so far, AJ has averaged more yards/carry than any of the other ball carriers. Is is just because his carries tend to be late in the games? Maybe. I think he deserves some carries early so that we can find out, especially since he has yet to turn the ball over.

If the running game can average over 4-5 yards/carry, the passing game will open up, and then the offense will look fine. Time for OUTM? For what it's worth, here are some comparison numbers for prior running backs only:
2005 - McRae 5.5, Average all running backs 5.5
2006 - McRae 4.7, Average all running backs 4.5
2007 - McRae 4.9, Average all running backs 4.9
2008 - Harden 5.2, Garrett 4.5, Davidson 3.9, Avg all 4.6
2009 - Garrett 4.9, Davidson 3.9, Harden 3.9, Avg all 4.2
2010 - Harden 4.8, Davidson 4.0, Boykin 5.2, Avg all 4.3
2011 - Harden 5.3, Blankenship 5.0, Boykin 4.2, Avg all 4.9
2012 - Blankenship 5.1, Boykin 6.0, Daz 6.3, Avg all 5.3
2013 - Blankenship 4.5, Boykin 3.9, Daz 5.6, Edmond 3.1, Avg 4.3
2014 - Avg so far 3.6

This wasn't what I expected to find. I see that the average was falling steadily from 2005 until Ohio changed the offense to a one-back set, after which the average actually went up significantly. Thus, an effective passing attack can open up the run, just as an effective run can open up the passes.

In any case, I expect Ohio's offense to continue to improve this year, but I think it's possible that we'll see AJ as the "wear them down" back, and Daz as the change of pace back. Daz was very effective in the change of pace role in 2012 and 2013.
Casper71
General User
C71
Member Since: 12/1/2006
Post Count: 3,237
person
mail
Casper71
mail
Posted: 9/15/2014 11:42 PM
I stated on BA that I thought the Marshall game might get ugly if Cato threw the ball all over the field last week and it did. This week, I think the Defense returns and the O finds itself a bit. 24-3 win. If we dismantle anyone this year I will be surprised.
Ohio69
General User
O69
Member Since: 12/20/2004
Post Count: 3,124
person
mail
Ohio69
mail
Posted: 9/16/2014 12:12 AM
My Prediction: I will continue to be surprised and puzzled regarding why the offense looks better with Sprague at QB than Vick.

Also, I won't like the beer sales in the Tower as much as I should.
Last Edited: 9/16/2014 12:12:45 AM by Ohio69
Showing Messages: 1 - 3 of 3
MAC News Links



extra small (< 576px)
small (>= 576px)
medium (>= 768px)
large (>= 992px)
x-large (>= 1200px)
xx-large (>= 1400px)