Albin was asked in the press conference why he didn't go for it on three fourth downs in Akron territory. His answer, "Because our defense was dominating. Next question."
My next question would be, isn't the dominance of your defense a reason to take risks to score points?
I'm not saying punting was right, I'm not commenting on that, but the logic checks out fine.
I'm old enough to remember that some coaches that cut their teeth in the business back in the middle of the twentieth century that were still around used to have a fairly common phrase. You used to hear, "It's not a sin to punt." Maybe this adage is less common because rule changes in defensive holding, pass interference, and protecting offensive players have increased point totals or maybe adages just change over time. It is what they do. But I think everyone agrees that scoring points is just about always better than punting and punting very, very probably results in a better situation than turning it over. It also, I think, squares with nearly everyone's intuition, traditional coaching styles, and modern analytics that it is usually more of a sin to punt when you are trailing that if you have the lead and usually more of a sin to punt in an offensive shootout than a defensive struggle.
This DOESN'T mean that it is ALWAYS right to punt if you have the lead on a defensive battle. Being up 14-10 with fourth and short just outside your kicker's trusted range with 7 minutes left is very different that being up 20-0 with fourth and 15 in your own redzone with 7 minutes left. But if you have the lead and how the game is going affects the analysis and just about every situation and coaching style makes you more inclined to punt with the lead or in a defensive game.
Consider the exact opposite of what you are arguing. I recall a game against UMass in 2018 where we kicked off, gave up a quick over the top TD, and then threw a pick six to fall behind 14-0 almost immediately. Ohio then scored a TD on their next 6 drives and then a field goal on the 7th. UMass started going for it on every fourth down. When Mark Whipple was asked about it, he said he couldn't afford to punt because it was clear Ohio was going to get points on most of their possessions.
You could flip this on its head just like you did in the opposite scenario. If you are having trouble stopping Ohio isn't it important to give your defense a chance by not giving Ohio a short field. Also, in a game that is 45-35 early in the second half, why not trust that your offense won't be in this position of facing 4th down too many times for the rest of the game and to trust that they will capitalize on the rest of their possessions and that you should be more inclined to punt in this type of game than in other games. I'm guessing that your gut is telling you that is just wrong without a background in coaching or doing any complex analytics. The opposite is also true.
I'm not arguing either way on if all those punts yesterday were correct strategy. The idea of taking less risks trying to get points with the lead in a defensive battle than you would in most other situations totally analytically checks out though.
Last Edited: 9/29/2024 2:02:25 PM by Victory