BG 3-1
Akron 2-1
Ohio 2-2
UMass 2-2
Buff 1-2
Fiami 1-3
Kent 0-3

We're only one game behind BG, but...BG has the tiebreaker vs every 2-loss team in the division. We can still win the division, but we need a lot of help. We can't be in a tie with BG, no matter who else is involved. So, we need to win out, BG has to lose two and Akron has to lose at least one more. (Don't expect UMass to win out; they still have Toledo and Akron on the schedule, and either Pohl will be back or Woodson will be better by 11/18 when they play.) The toughest games left on BG's schedule are at Akron (11/4 -- BG doesn't play 'til then; they have 18 days 'til their next game) and at Toledo (11/19). They also have Kent and BSU at home.

I think we lose that 3 way tie-breaker due to the worse East Division record (we only play 5 East teams, so at best we would be 4-1 to BG's 5-1).

I think this is right. Either that, or if Akron's second loss is to an East team (next week at Ball State is their last game against the West), they would drop out of the three-way tie and BG would have us beat on head-to-head record.

Either way, we need to win out and have BG lose two of four.

Per Team Rankings, the odds of each team winning the MACC:

Toledo 42.1%
Akron 21.0%
BG 14.5%
NIU 13.8%
WMU 4.5%
CMU 1.2%
Ohio 1.2%
Buffalo 1.1%
UMass .3%
Ball State .1%
Kent .1%

They also project the most likely bowl teams, and expected wins:
NIU 8.3
Toledo 7.7
WMU 7.4
Akron 7.3
BG 7.1
CMU 6.8
Ohio 5.6

They give Ohio a 54.6% chance of being bowl eligible.
http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/ohio-bo...

1.2% isn't worth worrying about. Let's hope they can win one at a time, and see where things end up.