Do teams which are penalized more lose more? It turns out, it depends on the type of penalty. From football outsiders we learn that teams that commit offensive penalties lose more often, particularly teams which commit false starts, while defensive penalties are not correlated to losing.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/FO-basicsTeams with more offensive penalties generally lose more games, but there is no correlation between defensive penalties and losses.
... One reason is that defensive penalties often represent good play, not bad. Cornerbacks who play tight coverage may be just on the edge of a penalty on most plays, only occasionally earning a flag. Defensive ends who get a good jump on rushing the passer will gladly trade an encroachment penalty or two for ten snaps where they get off the blocks a split-second before the linemen trying to block them.
...The penalty that correlates highest with losses is the false start, and the penalty that teams will have called most consistently from year to year is also the false start.
In fact, there is evidence that there is a positive correlation between defensive penalties and defensive performance. This study doesn't have the ability to separate defensive penalties from total penalties, so they used total penalties, and found that teams that were more penalized had better defense:
http://tinyurl.com/ohkuyakDeadspin found a similar thing, very little overall correlation between penalties and performance in the NFL:
http://tinyurl.com/lbop2ngSo what does this mean? This doesn't imply that penalties aren't bad for teams; individual penalties are clearly detrimental on both offense and defense. What it does imply, I think, is that the sort of teams that accumulate more penalties—teams you might call "aggressive" when they're winning—aren't necessarily bad teams, and the sort of teams that accumulate fewer penalties aren't necessarily good teams.
Last Edited: 10/18/2014 7:19:44 PM by L.C.