The MAC has 5 bids, plus is the back-up to both the ACC and B1G in the new Detroit bowl game (Quick Lane) and Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl. To maximize our chances at getting one of those bids, here's what we should be rooting for.

MAC Primary Tie-Ins:

Ohio to win over NIU and Fiami (obvious)
Akron to lose at least one (preferably two or more) to Buffalo, UMass or Kent
Buffalo to lose at least one to Akron, Kent or UMass
CMU to lose to Fiami and WMU
Ball State to lose at least one to UMass, EMU, and BG

---Would put Ohio in 5th in MAC standings
---C Money's prediction: CMU beats Fiami, Ohio finishes 6th in the conference



MAC Secondary Tie-Ins (ACC/Notre Dame, B1G, and Navy):

ACC/Notre Dame (10 slots to fill + 1 if FSU is in the Playoff or access bowl)
FSU to win out
NC State to lose to Wake and UNC
UNC to beat NC State, lose to Duke and Pitt
Pitt to beat UNC, lose to Syracuse and Miami
Virginia to beat VaTech, lose to Miami
VaTech to lose two between Duke, Wake and Virginia

---Would leave only 8 teams eligible for 11 slots
---C Money's prediction: NC State and Pitt get eligible, leaving 1 open slot


B1G (9 slots to fill + 1 if osu is in Playoff or access bowl)
Michigan to lose to Maryland and osu
Penn State to lose to Temple, Illinois, and Michigan State
Rutgers to lose to Indiana, Michigan State, and Maryland
Indiana to beat Rutgers, lose to osu or Purdue
Northwestern to beat Illinois, lose to one of Notre Dame or Purdue
Illinois to beat Penn State, lose to Iowa and Northwestern

---Would leave only 7 teams eligible for 10 slots
---C Money's prediction: Penn State and Rutgers get eligible, osu in access bowl, leaving 1 open slot


Navy (Poinsettia Bowl)
Navy lose two of three to Ga. Southern, So. Alabama, and Army
(Note: I can't find one way or the other whether the Army/Navy Game counts for eligibility purposes, as the game is played after bowl bids are announced)

---C Money's prediction: Navy loses to Ga. Southern, beats So. Alabama, and BA gets into a tizzy trying to figure out if the Army game has an impact on us.

It used to be that Army and Navy had to have six wins before the bids are handed out, but I don't think that's the case anymore. Army already has six losses but ESPN hasn't written them off, and I saw a story about Navy that said its eligibility could come down to the Army-Navy game.

Also, Georgia Southern is in a transition year, so even though they have the best record in the Sun Belt (8-2, 7-0), they go to a bowl only if there aren't enough bowl eligible teams to fill all the slots. That puts them at the back of the line.

Washington plays 13 games because of a trip to Hawaii, so they need 7 wins to be bowl eligible. That shouldn't be hard -- they have 6 and still play Washington St (3-7) after Arizona and Oregon St.

I got bored this evening and went through the rest of the conferences. I'm thinking there will be 2 or 3 open bowl slots, so, yeah 6-6 would get us in. What I can't figure is if both the ACC and B1G can't fill their allotment, do we get a MAC vs. MAC bowl game in Detroit? The MAC appears to be the backup for both conferences.


Here's the rundown on the conferences not previously discussed:

American:
Temple needs to win one between Penn State, Cincinnati, and Tulane to be eligible.

--AAC winds up either filling all its slots or is one short


Big XII:
Winner of Texas/Okie State gets eligible. Loser is probably out, as Texas would have to beat #6 TCU, and Okie State would have to beat #12 Baylor and #15 Oklahoma.

--If TCU makes the playoff and another team (Baylor) gets an at-large bid to an access bowl, the conference would be -1.


C-USA:
MTSU has to win one of FAU, FIU, and UTEP to be eligible. Probably does that.
UAB either has to upset Marshall or beat So. Miss to be eligible. Probably does the latter.
WKU has to win two between Army, UTSA, and Marshall to be eligible. 50-50 odds.
UTEP has to win one of North Texas, Rice, and MTSU to be eligible. North Texas is the most winnable, but…
North Texas has to win out between UTEP, FIU, and UTSA to be eligible. All winnable.

--C-USA could be have anywhere from 6 to 8 bowl eligible teams for 5 slots (6 slots if Marshall gets the access bowl bid).


Independents not previously mentioned:
BYU has to win one from UNLV, Savannah State, and Cal. Count 'em in.
Army has to win its last 3 games vs. WKU, Fordham, and Navy to be eligible. Probably won't happen.

--Army's slot in the Armed Forces Bowl opens up


Mountain West:
SDSU has to win one against Boise St., Air Force, and San Jose State. SJSU is their best chance.
Fresno State has to beat both Nevada and Hawaii to be eligible. Nevada will be tough.
San Jose State has to beat all of Hawaii, Utah State, and SDSU. Probably doesn't get in.
Wyoming has to beat Boise St. and New Mexico. Probably not eligible.

--Mountain West probably winds up with 6 eligible teams for 6 slots (7 slots if Boise or Colorado St. get the access bowl bid)


PAC-12
Stanford has to win one from #17 Utah, Cal, or #18 UCLA. Not the easiest path.
Cal has to win one from USC, Stanford, or BYU. Again, not the easiest path, but at least one of Stanford or Cal will be eligible.
Washington has to win one with Arizona, Oregon State, and Wazzu still to play. Probably gets it.
Oregon State has to win 2 versus Arizona State, Washington, and Oregon. Probably won't.

--PAC-12 probably gets 8 or 9 eligible teams for 6 slots (plus 2 if Oregon and ASU get playoff and/or access bowl spots).


SEC:
Florida needs one win versus South Carolina, Eastern Kentucky, and FSU. Count them in.
Kentucky needs to beat Tennessee or Louisville to be eligible. 50-50 shot.
South Carolina has to win 2 from Florida, South Alabama, and Clemson. 50-50 shot.
Tennessee has to win 2 from Kentucky, Missouri, and Vandy. 50-50 shot.
Arky has to win 2 from LSU, Ole Miss, and Missouri. Probably won't.

--SEC probably winds up with 10 eligible teams for 9 slots (plus probably 2 slots in the playoff and/or access bowls)

I think the conference to watch here is probably the ACC. There are currently five teams fighting for bowl eligibility and there are only two spots left for ACC/Notre Dame.

The kicker here is, if an ACC team makes the Playoff (which FSU probably will), then another ACC team has to go to the Orange Bowl. I'm not sure if that counts against their 10 or not, but it's an interesting dynamic.

All five of those teams are playing at least one game against another team fighting for eligibility, so it's possible all 5 could become eligible or none. Four of those five have to win two games to get in.

My wife works at the Academy, and would be traveling with the team should they go to the bowl game in San Diego. They have been counting this one all year. She said the question has come up, and nobody in her immediate group knows the answer about what the bowl will do if they don't become eligible. She said the bowl itself has reached out and said that they really don't want to lose Navy because of the crowd size it can bring, especially in San Diego. It's a gamble worth taking for the bowl because even if they give the bid to another team a week prior on 12/13 they will not come close to bringing a fraction of what the Navy contingent would. If they give that bid to a MAC/CUSA/Sun Belt team it guarantees very low attendance. There's also about a 95% change of beating Army this year, especially at "home" in Baltimore.

I also think the prediction above should be reversed. Ga Southern is good, but the game is at home for Navy, it's senior day, and they know Paul Johnson's system. Navy is well-rested, too, having two bye weeks out of the last three. The game I think at risk is at S. Alabama. They played here last year and were big, athletic, and very good.

My neighbor is one of the Asst. AD's - I'll try and ask him tonight what the official deal is.

One other note - S. Alabama is 5-4 with three tough games left. Home vs Texas State (5-4), Navy and South Carolina. If they lose to Texas St they might not make it.