Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Best two teams in the MAC East?
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L.C.
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Posted: 11/13/2014 9:11 AM
colobobcat66 wrote:expand_more
UMASS is probably the second best team in the East because they actually have an offense, although they don't have a defense. They are pretty exciting to watch. Like others have said, I'm glad we didn't play them this year.

The pecking order in the East, if you exclude UMass, is pretty clear: BG, Ohio, Buffalo, Akron, Miami, Kent. If you put them in that order, direct head to head results give you no upsets at all.

When you throw UMass into the mix, the picture gets murkier. They have a win over Kent and a loss to Miami, plus a loss to BG. They don't play Ohio at all, and have yet to play Akron or Buffalo. How they do in those two games will tell a lot about where they fit. If they win both, they fit up up with Ohio behind BG, and their loss to Miami was an upset. If they lose both, they belong between Miami and Kent.
C Money
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Posted: 11/13/2014 9:53 AM
Isn't UMass out of the MAC after this year? Or is next year their last year?

2nd place in the East could be a trainwreck. I think 4 teams (us, Kron, UMass, and Buffalo) could wind up in 2nd. If we win out, it's us. If we don't, the chaos starts.

If we go 1-1 and UMass wins out, it's them, via better conference record (5-3 vs. 4-4). If we beat Fiami and UMass goes 1-1, it's us, via a better record vs. the East.

If we go 1-1, and either Kron or Buffalo, or both, win out, it's us, via head-to-head tiebreaker (both still play UMass, so UMass would be 3-5 in conference in that scenario).

If we go 0-2, and both Kron and Buffalo lose to Kent but beat UMass, it's us....even at 3-5 in conference (and 5-7 overall), due to head-to-head wins over both Kron and Buffalo, and UMass's worse record vs. the East.

If we go 0-2, and UMass beats either Kron or Buffalo, it's UMass, with a better conference record than all others, unless the other wins out. In that case, whoever beats UMass would have the head to head over UMass.

Kent almost kinda sorta looked respectable at times last night vs. BG...dug themselves 20-0 hole, then got within 3 points in the 4th quarter. I could see Kent beating either Kron or Buffalo, depending on which Zipper or Beefs team shows up.

But...it's Kent, so we might as well just win the last 2 games and not worry about tiebreakers.
colobobcat66
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Posted: 11/13/2014 9:54 AM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
UMASS is probably the second best team in the East because they actually have an offense, although they don't have a defense. They are pretty exciting to watch. Like others have said, I'm glad we didn't play them this year.

The pecking order in the East, if you exclude UMass, is pretty clear: BG, Ohio, Buffalo, Akron, Miami, Kent. If you put them in that order, direct head to head results give you no upsets at all.

When you throw UMass into the mix, the picture gets murkier. They have a win over Kent and a loss to Miami, plus a loss to BG. They don't play Ohio at all, and have yet to play Akron or Buffalo. How they do in those two games will tell a lot about where they fit. If they win both, they fit up up with Ohio behind BG, and their loss to Miami was an upset. If they lose both, they belong between Miami and Kent.

Come on LC, UMASS lost to colorado and Vandy by 3 points each, lost to BG by 5, toledo by 7, miami by 1, and beat Kent by 23.
lest we forget, we haven't played Miami yet and that game will not be easy IMHO. Anyway, I think UMASS has come a long way since last year and I think they're right up with us for number 2 right now.
Last Edited: 11/13/2014 10:19:31 AM by colobobcat66
OhioBobcat
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Posted: 11/13/2014 10:12 AM
BG is clearly the best team in the East. Again. BG won the East for the second straight season, has gone undefeated against the entire MAC East the last two years, won the MAC Championship last season and will play in the MAC Championship game again this year. Behind BG, I think it's Ohio and UMass for second best. I think we dodged a HUGE bullet not having to face UMass this year and this is a game that I think the home team would win if we faced one another.
L.C.
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Posted: 11/13/2014 7:56 PM
colobobcat66 wrote:expand_more
Come on LC, UMASS lost to colorado and Vandy by 3 points each, lost to BG by 5, toledo by 7, miami by 1, and beat Kent by 23.
lest we forget, we haven't played Miami yet and that game will not be easy IMHO. Anyway, I think UMASS has come a long way since last year and I think they're right up with us for number 2 right now.

In my post I referred to head to head games, not OOC games. I am not impressed at all by close losses to two of the worst P5 teams in the country. Since beating UMass, both schools have turned out to be pretty horrible.

Let's look at the head to head games of teams in the East:

BG - Beat Ohio, Beat Buffalo, Beat Akron, DNP Miami, Beat UMass, Future Kent
Ohio - Beat Buffalo, Beat Akron, Future game Miami, DNP UMass, Beat Kent
Buffalo - Lost BG, Lost Ohio, Beat Akron, Beat Miami, Future UMass, Future Kent
Akron - Lost BG, Lost Ohio, Lost Buffalo, Beat Miami, Beat UMass, Future Kent
Miami - DNP BG, Future Ohio, Lost Buffalo, Lost Akron, Beat UMass, Beat Kent
UMass - Lost BG, DNP Ohio, Future Buffalo, lost Akron, lost Miami, Beat Kent
Kent - Future BG, Lost Ohio, Future Buffalo, Future Akron, Lost Miami, lost UMass

With the teams in this order, so far every team has beaten every team they have played that is below them on this list, and lost to every team higher on the list. UMass may or may not belong higher on this list, depending on how they do against Kent and Akron. If they beat both, then the belong above Buffalo, and their loss to Miami was an anomaly.

Edit - It continues to be true that in this order, the higher ranked team has always beaten the lower ranked team in head-on-head games. There are enough games left that some will probably not fit that pattern.
Last Edited: 11/19/2014 7:06:39 PM by L.C.
L.C.
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Posted: 11/28/2014 6:01 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
The pecking order in the East, if you exclude UMass, is pretty clear: BG, Ohio, Buffalo, Akron, Miami, Kent. If you put them in that order, direct head to head results give you no upsets at all.

When you throw UMass into the mix, the picture gets murkier. They have a win over Kent and a loss to Miami, plus a loss to BG. They don't play Ohio at all, and have yet to play Akron or Buffalo. How they do in those two games will tell a lot about where they fit. If they win both, they fit up up with Ohio behind BG, and their loss to Miami was an upset. If they lose both, they belong between Miami and Kent.

UMass lost both, so they belong just above Kent. If you include only games against other MAC East teams, the records are:
BG: 5-0 (didn't play Miami)
Ohio: 4-1 (didn't play UMass)
Buffalo: 3-2 (didn't play Kent)
Akron: 2-4
Miami: 2-3 (didn't play BG)
UMass: 1-4 (didn't play Ohio)
Kent: 1-4 (didn't play Buffalo)

In this order, the only game where a team lost to a team below them was Akron's loss today to Kent.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 11/29/2014 12:45 PM
Sad criteria; being 2nd best in the East is not particularly a prideful distinction.
L.C.
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Posted: 11/29/2014 1:07 PM
Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
Sad criteria; being 2nd best in the East is not particularly a prideful distinction.

It's better than being in the bottom 5, and it was done with a very young team.
Pataskala
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Posted: 11/29/2014 4:57 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Sad criteria; being 2nd best in the East is not particularly a prideful distinction.

It's better than being in the bottom 5, and it was done with a very young team.
I was thinking about that too. With all the personnel we lost from last year's offense, we matched last year's MAC record and were one down overall. Not too bad for a rebuilding year. Despite the blowouts, the defense looked really good. Eight of our 12 opponents were held to 24 pts or less, and we won six of those (UK and NIU were the losses). I think this bodes well for next year, when we should have improvement on offense (yes, Monroe, despite the play-calling).
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