Per L.C.'s comments earlier today, losses are now incorporated into the OPPA rankings. Previously OPPA++ did not deduct points for losses.

The latest OPPA update subtracts a "loss penalty" (LP) for every loss. All other methodology remains the same. The loss penalty ranges from ~0.0 to 1.0 point. The penalty is relative to OPPA++ rankings. For calculation penalty is applied to OPPA++ rankings; the teams are re-ranked, the loss penalty is re-calculated based on the re-rank, and then re-applied to OPPA++ rankings.

A loss to the best team carries a loss penalty of 1/(# of FBS teams). Currently losing to Alabama carries a penalty of 0.008, losing to OHIO carries a penalty of 0.711 points. The current loss penalty value chart will be in the next post. Total loss penalties are subtracted per game played.

OPPA rankings that include a LP are referred to as OPPA+-.

Last week OPPA++ predicted 74% of outcomes. Last OPPA+- would've predicted 74% of outcomes (but not identical outcomes).

There are some big movers in OPPA+-. Pitt dropped the most, moving 18 spots. Most teams saw mid-to-low single digit ranking changes.

Moving forward I will use OPPA+-. Although this method uses more assumptions (but does not necessarily produce significantly improved results), a large portion of the feedback I received weeks ago wanted to see loss penalties in the objective criteria.


OPPA+- === OPPA++ === TEAM/CONFERENCE

34 ---- 36 ---- SEC
1 ---- 1 ---- Alabama (11-1)
5 ---- 5 ---- Mississippi (9-3)
7 ---- 8 ---- Mississippi State (10-2)
9 ---- 7 ---- Missouri (10-2)
11 ---- 12 ---- Auburn (8-4)
16 ---- 14 ---- Georgia (9-3)
19 ---- 18 ---- Louisiana State (8-4)
28 ---- 28 ---- Arkansas (6-6)
32 ---- 39 ---- Texas A&M (7-5)
49 ---- 57 ---- Tennessee (6-6)
50 ---- 44 ---- South Carolina (6-6)
68 ---- 67 ---- Florida (6-6)
76 ---- 85 ---- Kentucky (5-7)
104 ---- 113 ---- Vanderbilt (3-9)
45 ---- 48 ---- Pac-12
4 ---- 6 ---- Oregon (11-1)
13 ---- 13 ---- UCLA (9-3)
14 ---- 15 ---- Arizona (10-2)
22 ---- 19 ---- Arizona State (9-3)
24 ---- 22 ---- Southern California (8-4)
26 ---- 21 ---- Utah (8-4)
35 ---- 38 ---- Stanford (7-5)
60 ---- 71 ---- Washington (8-5)
73 ---- 76 ---- California (5-7)
81 ---- 81 ---- Oregon State (5-7)
89 ---- 94 ---- Washington State (3-9)
99 ---- 114 ---- Colorado (2-10)
47 ---- 46 ---- ACC
2 ---- 2 ---- Florida State (12-0)
6 ---- 3 ---- Georgia Tech (10-2)
25 ---- 27 ---- Clemson (9-3)
27 ---- 26 ---- Louisville (9-3)
37 ---- 40 ---- Duke (9-3)
39 ---- 42 ---- Boston College (7-5)
42 ---- 41 ---- Miami (FL) (6-6)
43 ---- 30 ---- Virginia Tech (6-6)
51 ---- 65 ---- North Carolina State (7-5)
57 ---- 55 ---- Virginia (5-7)
58 ---- 47 ---- North Carolina (6-6)
67 ---- 49 ---- Pittsburgh (6-6)
102 ---- 115 ---- Syracuse (3-9)
105 ---- 106 ---- Wake Forest (3-9)
48 ---- 48 ---- Big 10
3 ---- 4 ---- Ohio State (11-1)
12 ---- 10 ---- Wisconsin (10-2)
18 ---- 17 ---- Nebraska (9-3)
21 ---- 25 ---- Michigan State (10-2)
30 ---- 35 ---- Minnesota (8-4)
41 ---- 37 ---- Iowa (7-5)
48 ---- 60 ---- Rutgers (7-5)
52 ---- 61 ---- Maryland (7-5)
59 ---- 51 ---- Illinois (6-6)
62 ---- 50 ---- Penn State (6-6)
70 ---- 56 ---- Northwestern (5-7)
72 ---- 74 ---- Michigan (5-7)
93 ---- 96 ---- Indiana (4-8)
97 ---- 99 ---- Purdue (3-9)
55 ---- 59 ---- Big 12
8 ---- 9 ---- Texas Christian (10-1)
17 ---- 20 ---- Kansas State (9-2)
20 ---- 23 ---- Baylor (10-1)
23 ---- 24 ---- Oklahoma (8-3)
44 ---- 52 ---- West Virginia (7-5)
64 ---- 70 ---- Texas (6-6)
77 ---- 89 ---- Oklahoma State (5-6)
91 ---- 102 ---- Texas Tech (4-8)
101 ---- 107 ---- Kansas (3-9)
108 ---- 97 ---- Iowa State (2-9)
61 ---- 58 ---- Independent
31 ---- 32 ---- Notre Dame (7-5)
47 ---- 43 ---- Brigham Young (8-4)
54 ---- 54 ---- Navy (6-5)
112 ---- 104 ---- Army (4-7)
75 ---- 75 ---- MWC
10 ---- 11 ---- Boise State (10-2)
29 ---- 33 ---- Colorado State (10-2)
34 ---- 29 ---- Air Force (9-3)
55 ---- 59 ---- Utah State (9-4)
61 ---- 63 ---- Nevada (7-5)
80 ---- 82 ---- Fresno State (6-6)
83 ---- 84 ---- San Diego State (7-5)
94 ---- 90 ---- Wyoming (4-8)
96 ---- 103 ---- New Mexico (4-8)
114 ---- 110 ---- Hawaii (4-9)
116 ---- 121 ---- San Jose State (3-9)
123 ---- 120 ---- Nevada-Las Vegas (2-11)
77 ---- 73 ---- C-USA
15 ---- 16 ---- Marshall (11-1)
36 ---- 31 ---- Louisiana Tech (8-4)
45 ---- 34 ---- Western Kentucky (7-5)
69 ---- 66 ---- Texas-El Paso (7-5)
71 ---- 72 ---- Rice (7-5)
74 ---- 68 ---- Middle Tennessee State (6-6)
78 ---- 83 ---- Alabama-Birmingham (6-6)
82 ---- 78 ---- Old Dominion (6-6)
95 ---- 91 ---- Texas-San Antonio (4-8)
103 ---- 95 ---- Florida Atlantic (3-9)
106 ---- 93 ---- Florida International (4-8)
107 ---- 108 ---- Southern Mississippi (3-9)
118 ---- 118 ---- North Texas (4-8)
87 ---- 90 ---- AAC
38 ---- 45 ---- Memphis (9-3)
46 ---- 62 ---- Cincinnati (8-3)
56 ---- 53 ---- Central Florida (8-3)
63 ---- 58 ---- East Carolina (8-3)
79 ---- 75 ---- Houston (7-4)
90 ---- 92 ---- Temple (5-6)
109 ---- 111 ---- Tulane (3-8)
113 ---- 122 ---- South Florida (4-8)
120 ---- 119 ---- Connecticut (2-9)
122 ---- 123 ---- Tulsa (2-10)
126 ---- 128 ---- Southern Methodist (0-11)
92 ---- 88 ---- MAC
33 ---- 36 ---- Northern Illinois (10-2)
53 ---- 48 ---- Toledo (8-4)
66 ---- 64 ---- Western Michigan (8-4)
75 ---- 73 ---- Bowling Green State (7-5)
87 ---- 77 ---- Central Michigan (7-5)
92 ---- 98 ---- Ohio (6-6)
98 ---- 88 ---- Ball State (5-7)
110 ---- 105 ---- Akron (5-7)
111 ---- 100 ---- Buffalo (5-6)
115 ---- 112 ---- Kent State (2-9)
117 ---- 109 ---- Massachusetts (3-9)
119 ---- 116 ---- Miami (OH) (2-10)
125 ---- 124 ---- Eastern Michigan (2-10)
95 ---- 95 ---- Sun Belt
40 ---- 45 ---- Georgia Southern (9-3)
65 ---- 69 ---- Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4)
84 ---- 80 ---- Arkansas State (7-5)
85 ---- 87 ---- South Alabama (6-6)
86 ---- 86 ---- Texas State (7-5)
88 ---- 79 ---- Appalachian State (7-5)
100 ---- 101 ---- Louisiana-Monroe (4-8)
121 ---- 126 ---- Troy (3-9)
124 ---- 117 ---- Idaho (2-10)
127 ---- 125 ---- New Mexico State (2-10)
128 ---- 127 ---- Georgia State (1-11)