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Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Weeks 10 and 11 MAC schedule
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Pataskala
10/28/2024 5:12 PM
Saturday November 2
Buffalo (4-4, 2-2) at Akron (2-6, 1-3) noon, CBSSN
Toledo (5-3, 2-2) at EMU (5-3, 2-2) noon, ESPNU

Tuesday November 5
BG (4-4,3-1) at CMU (3-5, 1-3) 7 pm, ESPN2
MOFO (4-4, 3-1) at BSU (3-5, 2-2) 8 pm, ESPN

Wednesday November 6
OHIO (5-3, 3-1) at Kent (0-8, 0-4) 7 pm, ESPNU
NIU (4-4,1-3) at WMU (5-3, 4-0) 7 pm, ESPN2
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TWT
10/28/2024 5:27 PM
Hoping for a big election surprise next Tuesday.

CMU
BSU
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ExCat21
10/30/2024 7:18 PM
Pataskala wrote:expand_more
Saturday November 2
Buffalo (4-4, 2-2) at Akron (2-6, 1-3) noon, CBSSN
Toledo (5-3, 2-2) at EMU (5-3, 2-2) noon, ESPNU

Tuesday November 5
BG (4-4,3-1) at CMU (3-5, 1-3) 7 pm, ESPN2
MOFO (4-4, 3-1) at BSU (3-5, 2-2) 8 pm, ESPN

Wednesday November 6
OHIO (5-3, 3-1) at Kent (0-8, 0-4) 7 pm, ESPNU
NIU (4-4,1-3) at WMU (5-3, 4-0) 7 pm, ESPN2
November 2nd and 5th - Cheering for home teams.

November 6 - Cheering for away teams.
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Pataskala
10/31/2024 12:44 PM
Kent has the nation's longest losing streak. They've lost 17 straight games overall, 18 straight to D1A/FBS teams, and 12 straight MAC games. Their last win was vs Central Connecticut on Sept 16, 2023 and their last win vs a D1A team was an OT win at Buffalo in the last game of the 2022 season. They haven't won a MAC home game since beating Akron on Oct 22, 2022. Keep these streaks going.
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ExCat21
10/31/2024 1:13 PM
Thomas Neumann thinks Akron will upset Buffalo.

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-footbal...

Not sure if he thinks Buffalo has lost steam and Akron's upset of EMU has built confidence but Buffs do have outstanding LBers. He also has EMU over Toledo which is very interesting too. EMU will have to shake off last week to overcome this week.

Big week of ball in the MAC. Games 9-12 is where we see the cream rise to the top.
Last Edited: 10/31/2024 1:16:09 PM by ExCat21
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SBH
10/31/2024 1:23 PM
You heard it here first: BG loses at CMU. Akron loses big to Buffalo. Miami crushes BSU. Toledo escapes EMU by a late field goal.
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OhioCatFan
10/31/2024 2:06 PM
SBH wrote:expand_more
You heard it here first: BG loses at CMU. Akron loses big to Buffalo. Miami crushes BSU. Toledo escapes EMU by a late field goal.
I'm with you, except for the first one. I think BG wins out and ends up in the MACC.
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Pataskala
11/2/2024 4:07 PM
Saturday's results:

Buffalo 41--Akron 30
Toledo 29--EMU 28

EMU missed two 2-pt conversions, one with a 19-7 lead in the third quarter and the other after completing a Hail Mary TD pass with no time left in the 4th to go for the win instead of OT.
Last Edited: 11/2/2024 4:14:08 PM by Pataskala
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ExCat21
11/2/2024 4:44 PM
Akron down 38-7 and fought hard in 4th quarter. Even though it's another loss, I was impressed with Ben Finley and the Zips will to fight back.

EMU should have won. Bad coaching strategies in the second half.
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Ted Thompson
11/3/2024 7:18 PM

 

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M.D.W.S.T
11/5/2024 8:26 PM
Big fan of these BG uniforms. Except the non-matching stripes on the top/bottom annoy me.
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Pataskala
11/5/2024 11:21 PM
Tuesday's results:

BG 23--CMU 13
MOFO 27--BSU 21
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ExCat21
11/6/2024 9:22 PM
Huskies came to play tonight. Still early though.
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bobcatsquared
11/6/2024 9:45 PM
Ohio getting help from huskies at WMU. Lead 42-21 after 3 qtrs.
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Pataskala
11/6/2024 10:24 PM
Wednesday's results:

OHIO 41--Kent 0
NIU 42--wmu 28

Four-way tie for first in the MAC.
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ExCat21
11/6/2024 11:42 PM
Pataskala wrote:expand_more
Wednesday's results:

OHIO 41--Kent 0
NIU 42--wmu 28

Four-way tie for first in the MAC.
We need to win out with WMU beating BG. Then BG beating Miami. Right?
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shabamon
11/7/2024 7:46 AM
ExCat21 wrote:expand_more
Wednesday's results:

OHIO 41--Kent 0
NIU 42--wmu 28

Four-way tie for first in the MAC.
We need to win out with WMU beating BG. Then BG beating Miami. Right?
Win out and Miami losing to anyone would be enough. It doesn't have to be that, but that would seem the most simple scenario. NIU could play spoiler again and beat Miami.

Or win out and the winner of BG/WMU drops one.

Or how about this? BG beats WMU and we win out, we should clinch. That BG/Miami game would be an elimination game.

The loser of BG/WMU will need tons of help to stay alive.
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L.C.
11/7/2024 8:37 AM
ExCat21 wrote:expand_more
Wednesday's results:

OHIO 41--Kent 0
NIU 42--wmu 28

Four-way tie for first in the MAC.
We need to win out with WMU beating BG. Then BG beating Miami. Right?

There are four teams left with only one MAC loss. There are two key elimination games left:
11/13 WMU at BG
11/29 Miami at BG

Let's start with the assumption that Ohio wins out, and finishes 7-1. Then Ohio is in the MACC game unless two other teams are also 7-1, and both win tiebreakers against Ohio. They only way that could happen is if BG loses both games, creating the possibility that both WMU and Miami go 7-1. That would be bad because I know Miami wins the tiebreaker with Ohio, and I have no idea about a tiebreaker between Ohio and WMU, but it's quite possible that in that situation, a 7-1 Ohio team could be at home.

Now, what if Ohio only goes 2-1 down the stretch, finishing at 6-2? It is entirely possible that every MAC team will have 2 or more losses. Suppose, for example, that Ohio loses to Toledo, Miami loses to BG, BG loses to WMU, and WMU loses to EMU? Now, suppose that Toledo and Buffalo win out. That gets you a 6 way tie at 6-2. Who wins the tiebreaker in that situation? I have no idea, but I'm sure it isn't Ohio.

My conclusion is that, for Ohio to get into the MACC, Ohio probably has to go 3-0 down the stretch, and BG has to beat either WMU or Miami. If BG does lose both games, then Ohio probably needs either WMU or Miami to find another loss.
Last Edited: 11/7/2024 8:39:54 AM by L.C.
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shabamon
11/7/2024 9:09 AM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Wednesday's results:

OHIO 41--Kent 0
NIU 42--wmu 28

Four-way tie for first in the MAC.
We need to win out with WMU beating BG. Then BG beating Miami. Right?

There are four teams left with only one MAC loss. There are two key elimination games left:
11/13 WMU at BG
11/29 Miami at BG

Let's start with the assumption that Ohio wins out, and finishes 7-1. Then Ohio is in the MACC game unless two other teams are also 7-1, and both win tiebreakers against Ohio. They only way that could happen is if BG loses both games, creating the possibility that both WMU and Miami go 7-1. That would be bad because I know Miami wins the tiebreaker with Ohio, and I have no idea about a tiebreaker between Ohio and WMU, but it's quite possible that in that situation, a 7-1 Ohio team could be at home.

Now, what if Ohio only goes 2-1 down the stretch, finishing at 6-2? It is entirely possible that every MAC team will have 2 or more losses. Suppose, for example, that Ohio loses to Toledo, Miami loses to BG, BG loses to WMU, and WMU loses to EMU? Now, suppose that Toledo and Buffalo win out. That gets you a 6 way tie at 6-2. Who wins the tiebreaker in that situation? I have no idea, but I'm sure it isn't Ohio.

My conclusion is that, for Ohio to get into the MACC, Ohio probably has to go 3-0 down the stretch, and BG has to beat either WMU or Miami. If BG does lose both games, then Ohio probably needs either WMU or Miami to find another loss.
The way I see it:
-Ohio win out AND one of the following:
-The BG/WMU winner loses another game OR
-Miami loses another game (can be BG if BG beats WMU, that would not hurt Ohio)

I think BG beating WMU would let Ohio control its own destiny.

I don't know what could happen if Ohio does not win out.
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OhioCatFan
11/7/2024 9:52 AM
I like the prospects of BG winning the rest of its games. In which case, if OHIO does likewise, we play BG in the MACC.
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L.C.
11/7/2024 9:56 AM
shabamon wrote:expand_more
The way I see it:
-Ohio win out AND one of the following:
-The BG/WMU winner loses another game OR
-Miami loses another game (can be BG if BG beats WMU, that would not hurt Ohio)

I think BG beating WMU would let Ohio control its own destiny.

I don't know what could happen if Ohio does not win out. [/QUOTE]
You are basically same the same thing I did, but in a different way. We both agree that Ohio needs to win out, because 6-2 is unlikely to get Ohio to the MACC, and that a BG win over WMU guarantees that Ohio controls it's destiny.

As for the situation where WMU beats BG, again, we agree, but this is the way I addressed it:
[QUOTE=L.C.]... if BG loses both games, [it creates] the possibility that both WMU and Miami go 7-1. That would be bad because I know Miami wins the tiebreaker with Ohio, and I have no idea about a tiebreaker between Ohio and WMU, but it's quite possible that in that situation, a 7-1 Ohio team could be at home.

Thus, I agree that, even if BG loses both games, another loss by either WMU or Miami would suffice. Really, the only place where we differ is that I left open the possibility that if Ohio, WMU, and Miami all go 7-1, it's possible that Ohio would win a tiebreaker against WMU. I have no idea how that would go, so I'd rather avoid that situation.

In the end, it comes down to "Just win, baby", and letting the chips fall where they may.
Last Edited: 11/7/2024 9:57:40 AM by L.C.
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ExCat21
11/8/2024 2:40 AM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Wednesday's results:

OHIO 41--Kent 0
NIU 42--wmu 28

Four-way tie for first in the MAC.
We need to win out with WMU beating BG. Then BG beating Miami. Right?

There are four teams left with only one MAC loss. There are two key elimination games left:
11/13 WMU at BG
11/29 Miami at BG

Let's start with the assumption that Ohio wins out, and finishes 7-1. Then Ohio is in the MACC game unless two other teams are also 7-1, and both win tiebreakers against Ohio. They only way that could happen is if BG loses both games, creating the possibility that both WMU and Miami go 7-1. That would be bad because I know Miami wins the tiebreaker with Ohio, and I have no idea about a tiebreaker between Ohio and WMU, but it's quite possible that in that situation, a 7-1 Ohio team could be at home.

Now, what if Ohio only goes 2-1 down the stretch, finishing at 6-2? It is entirely possible that every MAC team will have 2 or more losses. Suppose, for example, that Ohio loses to Toledo, Miami loses to BG, BG loses to WMU, and WMU loses to EMU? Now, suppose that Toledo and Buffalo win out. That gets you a 6 way tie at 6-2. Who wins the tiebreaker in that situation? I have no idea, but I'm sure it isn't Ohio.

My conclusion is that, for Ohio to get into the MACC, Ohio probably has to go 3-0 down the stretch, and BG has to beat either WMU or Miami. If BG does lose both games, then Ohio probably needs either WMU or Miami to find another loss.
After research, we need WMU to beat BG, then the following week we need BG to knock off Miami. We need to win out as well.

When it comes down to the MAC Rules, it gets wild with 3+ team ties. If it's a 3-way race with OU, Miami and WMU, then Miami and OU will play because we will have a higher SSA rating than WMU.

OU, WMU and BG can not tie because BG and WMU play next.

If 6 teams end up 6-2, it would be BG and Toledo (toughest in-conference schedule of all the tied teams). Those teams played 1 extra in-conference opponent that finished with above .500 or higher win percentage. (BG beat Toledo and Toledo beat Miami and OU later in the schedule).

MAC Tie Breaker:

https://www.ypsi11.com/p/new-mac-football-tiebreak-rules-...


Who is SSA?

http://sportsourceanalytics.com/football-analytics.html

According to BRUCE_MF from another messageboard (https://csnbbs.com/thread-997315-post-19768428.html#pid19... )
this firm decides for CFP.


They will use this advance tool to determine who will go if no other deciding factors. Please click on ADVANCED tab at top left:

https://www.sportsourceanalytics.com/rankingtool/?mode=si...


Basically after plugging in the info, BG and Miami have the higher rankings but BG and OU are the most efficient teams in the conference (so far).


After looking at all this data I'm leaning towards BG and OU playing in MAC title.
Even though BG has the toughest games remaining (WMU and Miami), I believe BG can beat them as favored teams already. (Knock on wood for no injuries).
Last Edited: 11/8/2024 2:50:10 AM by ExCat21
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L.C.
11/8/2024 5:30 AM
I'm sure that you are right that Ohio will not be in the MACC if they end up 6-2, but I disagree with one part of your post.

ExCat21 wrote:expand_more
After research, we need WMU to beat BG....

If Ohio can get to 7-1, Ohio goes to the MACC game. The following are all possible:
1. Everyone else could falter, and Ohio could face some 6-2 team
2. BG could defeat WMU and Miami, then Ohio could face a 7-1 BG team
3. WMU could defeat BG, and BG could defeat Miami, and Ohio could face a 7-1 WMU team
4. Miami could beat BG, in which case Ohio could face a 7-1 Miami team. In this case, it doesn't matter if WMU also finishes 7-1 as Ohio would eliminate WMU via the tiebreaker.
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ExCat21
11/8/2024 1:32 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
I'm sure that you are right that Ohio will not be in the MACC if they end up 6-2, but I disagree with one part of your post.

After research, we need WMU to beat BG....

If Ohio can get to 7-1, Ohio goes to the MACC game. The following are all possible:
1. Everyone else could falter, and Ohio could face some 6-2 team
2. BG could defeat WMU and Miami, then Ohio could face a 7-1 BG team
3. WMU could defeat BG, and BG could defeat Miami, and Ohio could face a 7-1 WMU team
4. Miami could beat BG, in which case Ohio could face a 7-1 Miami team. In this case, it doesn't matter if WMU also finishes 7-1 as Ohio would eliminate WMU via the tiebreaker.
You are correct good sir!

https://x.com/TheMSCPodcast/status/1854539619842347411?t=...


I guess the question I should ask is which team would you rather play against if we win out?

Give me Miami in a rematch for the title.
Last Edited: 11/8/2024 1:39:09 PM by ExCat21
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Victory
11/8/2024 7:01 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
I'm sure that you are right that Ohio will not be in the MACC if they end up 6-2, but I disagree with one part of your post.

After research, we need WMU to beat BG....

If Ohio can get to 7-1, Ohio goes to the MACC game. The following are all possible:
1. Everyone else could falter, and Ohio could face some 6-2 team
2. BG could defeat WMU and Miami, then Ohio could face a 7-1 BG team
3. WMU could defeat BG, and BG could defeat Miami, and Ohio could face a 7-1 WMU team
4. Miami could beat BG, in which case Ohio could face a 7-1 Miami team. In this case, it doesn't matter if WMU also finishes 7-1 as Ohio would eliminate WMU via the tiebreaker.
This wasn't the easiest thing to figure out. I mean, it isn't complicated but I certainly wouldn't call it obvious. We COULD win out and lose a tiebreaker to WMU based on conference record of opponents if we are both 7-1. But the only was that could happen would be in two-way tie which I assume they would actually be applied to see who gets locker room and uniform choice now that there aren't divisions. But as LC cleverly noticed after I put up the methodology and current opponent conference records that the only way this can matter for elimination is if Miami wins out too and since WMU doesn't play Miami they can't catch us from behind on that in the only situation that matters. It gets me thinking about if the staff actually is aware of the fact that Ohio now controls its own destiny. I assume that they do by now. But I wouldn't be totally shocked if they don't. It isn't like we have a huge athletic staff to guarantee someone is working on scenarios or a huge amount of media coverage where someone publishes this fact.
Last Edited: 11/8/2024 7:02:21 PM by Victory
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