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Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Week 16 OPPA+- Conference Rankings
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The Situation
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Posted: 12/7/2014 11:26 AM
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34 ---- SEC
1 ---- Alabama (12-1)
5 ---- Mississippi (9-3)
6 ---- Mississippi State (10-2)
10 ---- Auburn (8-4)
14 ---- Missouri (10-3)
15 ---- Georgia (9-3)
18 ---- Louisiana State (8-4)
27 ---- Arkansas (6-6)
31 ---- Texas A&M (7-5)
49 ---- South Carolina (6-6)
51 ---- Tennessee (6-6)
67 ---- Florida (6-6)
76 ---- Kentucky (5-7)
103 ---- Vanderbilt (3-9)
45 ---- Pac-12
4 ---- Oregon (12-1)
12 ---- UCLA (9-3)
16 ---- Arizona (10-3)
21 ---- Arizona State (9-3)
23 ---- Southern California (8-4)
25 ---- Utah (8-4)
34 ---- Stanford (7-5)
59 ---- Washington (8-5)
74 ---- California (5-7)
80 ---- Oregon State (5-7)
90 ---- Washington State (3-9)
98 ---- Colorado (2-10)
47 ---- ACC
2 ---- Florida State (13-0)
7 ---- Georgia Tech (10-3)
22 ---- Clemson (9-3)
26 ---- Louisville (9-3)
37 ---- Duke (9-3)
38 ---- Boston College (7-5)
39 ---- Miami (FL) (6-6)
44 ---- Virginia Tech (6-6)
52 ---- North Carolina State (7-5)
57 ---- Virginia (5-7)
58 ---- North Carolina (6-6)
65 ---- Pittsburgh (6-6)
102 ---- Syracuse (3-9)
104 ---- Wake Forest (3-9)
50 ---- Big 10
3 ---- Ohio State (12-1)
17 ---- Nebraska (9-3)
19 ---- Wisconsin (10-3)
20 ---- Michigan State (10-2)
32 ---- Minnesota (8-4)
45 ---- Iowa (7-5)
50 ---- Rutgers (7-5)
54 ---- Maryland (7-5)
56 ---- Penn State (6-6)
63 ---- Illinois (6-6)
72 ---- Northwestern (5-7)
73 ---- Michigan (5-7)
93 ---- Indiana (4-8)
97 ---- Purdue (3-9)
55 ---- Big 12
8 ---- Texas Christian (11-1)
13 ---- Baylor (11-1)
24 ---- Kansas State (9-3)
29 ---- Oklahoma (8-4)
43 ---- West Virginia (7-5)
62 ---- Texas (6-6)
71 ---- Oklahoma State (6-6)
91 ---- Texas Tech (4-8)
100 ---- Kansas (3-9)
108 ---- Iowa State (2-10)
61 ---- Independent
30 ---- Notre Dame (7-5)
48 ---- Brigham Young (8-4)
53 ---- Navy (6-5)
113 ---- Army (4-7)
75 ---- MWC
9 ---- Boise State (11-2)
28 ---- Colorado State (10-2)
33 ---- Air Force (9-3)
55 ---- Utah State (9-4)
61 ---- Nevada (7-5)
82 ---- San Diego State (7-5)
85 ---- Fresno State (6-7)
94 ---- Wyoming (4-8)
96 ---- New Mexico (4-8)
114 ---- Hawaii (4-9)
115 ---- San Jose State (3-9)
122 ---- Nevada-Las Vegas (2-11)
77 ---- C-USA
11 ---- Marshall (12-1)
42 ---- Louisiana Tech (8-5)
46 ---- Western Kentucky (7-5)
69 ---- Texas-El Paso (7-5)
70 ---- Rice (7-5)
75 ---- Middle Tennessee State (6-6)
79 ---- Alabama-Birmingham (6-6)
81 ---- Old Dominion (6-6)
95 ---- Texas-San Antonio (4-8)
105 ---- Florida Atlantic (3-9)
106 ---- Florida International (4-8)
107 ---- Southern Mississippi (3-9)
117 ---- North Texas (4-8)
86 ---- AAC
36 ---- Memphis (9-3)
40 ---- Cincinnati (9-3)
47 ---- Central Florida (9-3)
66 ---- East Carolina (8-4)
77 ---- Houston (7-5)
87 ---- Temple (6-6)
110 ---- Tulane (3-9)
112 ---- South Florida (4-8)
120 ---- Tulsa (2-10)
123 ---- Connecticut (2-10)
125 ---- Southern Methodist (1-11)
94 ---- MAC
35 ---- Northern Illinois (11-2)
60 ---- Toledo (8-4)
68 ---- Western Michigan (8-4)
78 ---- Bowling Green State (7-6)
88 ---- Central Michigan (7-5)
92 ---- Ohio (6-6)
101 ---- Ball State (5-7)
109 ---- Akron (5-7)
111 ---- Buffalo (5-6)
116 ---- Kent State (2-9)
118 ---- Massachusetts (3-9)
119 ---- Miami (OH) (2-10)
126 ---- Eastern Michigan (2-10)
95 ---- Sun Belt
41 ---- Georgia Southern (9-3)
64 ---- Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4)
83 ---- Arkansas State (7-5)
84 ---- South Alabama (6-6)
86 ---- Texas State (7-5)
89 ---- Appalachian State (7-5)
99 ---- Louisiana-Monroe (4-8)
121 ---- Troy (3-9)
124 ---- Idaho (2-10)
127 ---- New Mexico State (2-10)
128 ---- Georgia State (1-11)
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 12/7/2014 1:09 PM
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Since you control this, why is OHIO not rated #1.

Where is your allegiance, friend?
The Situation
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Posted: 12/7/2014 1:27 PM
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The official playoff committee and their eye tests came up with the same Top 4 teams as my objective ranking system.

Jerry Rigg Jeff Sagarin's Top 4?

1. Alabama
2. TCU
3. Oregon
4. Ole Miss

...

5. Ohio State
15. Florida State (ayfkm Jeff!!!)

---------

Who do you trust to rank the Ohio Bobcats, Monroe?
Casper71
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Posted: 12/7/2014 2:36 PM
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I'm sure the Committee asked Situation for his rankings before making their decision. Seriously, how can anyone have FSU #2/#3? The won their last 4 games by like 12 points.

I know nobody here likes Ohio St and neither do I. But, I do respect their play and I understand why the Committee thinks they are one of the Top 4 right now. The really punished a decent Wisconsin team!

Don't you wish we had any of their Top 3 QBs?
The Situation
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Posted: 12/7/2014 3:27 PM
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Casper71 wrote:expand_more
I'm sure the Committee asked Situation for his rankings before making their decision. Seriously, how can anyone have FSU #2/#3? The won their last 4 games by like 12 points.
Florida State is the defending National Champion. The Seminoles haven't lost since 2012. They've won two (2) BCS games since their last loss. They're literally undefeated this year. And they have the reigning Heisman QB running their offense.

The 'Noles are 6-0 against teams with winning records this season. No team in college football has beaten more teams with winning records this season than Florida State.

If you don't have Florida State in your top 3, you might as well have the Ohio Bobcats #1.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 12/7/2014 7:09 PM
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I agree with that. FSU done won 'em all. What more you want.
Casper71
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Posted: 12/7/2014 11:34 PM
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OMG, Casper and Monroe do NOT agree on something. We do have our own opinions.

I know the records and the "body of work". If you look at the way FSU ended the season you can't seriously be impressed. I sure wasn't. It's just a difference of opinion.

You may not like it and I may not like it but sports nowdays is mostly about "what have you done for us lately", not what did you do last year or five years ago or ten years ago or twenty!
JSF
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Posted: 12/8/2014 12:11 AM
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They're undefeated. How can you leave them out?
GoCats105
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Posted: 12/8/2014 9:10 AM
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Situation,

Even more interesting is that your rankings almost correctly predicted the New Year's Six Bowls correctly as well. The only differences I can see at first glance is Marshall (obviously they didn't make it since they are ranked lower than Boise) and Michigan State.

Kudos to you on the hard work.

Full disclosure: I hate the ACC/Orange Bowl rule that an ACC team has to make that game if there is another ACC team in the Playoff. It worked out this year, but I have a feeling it won't in the future.
Casper71
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Posted: 12/8/2014 11:59 AM
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JSF, look at their opponents and scores from the last 4 weeks.
Deciduous Forest Cat
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Posted: 12/8/2014 12:39 PM
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Casper71 wrote:expand_more
JSF, look at their opponents and scores from the last 4 weeks.
Hmmm... I see Win, Win, Win, Win.
Casper71
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Posted: 12/8/2014 12:45 PM
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Deciduous, you are half way there...now look at the SCORES and OPPONENTS!
JSF
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Posted: 12/8/2014 4:06 PM
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Casper71 wrote:expand_more
Deciduous, you are half way there...now look at the SCORES and OPPONENTS!
Again, undefeated.
GoCats105
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Posted: 12/8/2014 4:16 PM
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Casper71 wrote:expand_more
Deciduous, you are half way there...now look at the SCORES and OPPONENTS!
They played 9 bowl teams and beat all of them. At the end of the day, who cares what the scores are. I don't think FSU is all that good either, but they won them all. I don't think margin of victory really comes into play when comparing undefeated teams vs non-undefeated teams. Especially when that team is the undefeated defending national champion on a ridiculous win streak.
Last Edited: 12/8/2014 4:18:12 PM by GoCats105
The Situation
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Posted: 12/8/2014 8:55 PM
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Thank you for the compliment GoCats. I appreciated your feedback this year.
The Situation
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Posted: 12/8/2014 9:38 PM
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Some people like to hang onto this notion that, hypothetically, if two teams played 100 times, one team would most definitely win more than the other. This type of person likes to consider them-self "realistic".

However, a direct, and quite visible contradiction of their alleged "realism" is that these teams will not play 100 times. These teams play once, maybe twice. And as far as the rest of human existence is concerned, Florida State has won them all this season. There will not be 99 more chances.

P.S.

Casper,

Margin of Victory plays a very small part (on the losing side) in OPPA+- rankings. MOV only appears in the form of the Strong Loss Bonus, which is given out for one (1) possession losses (25% of the value of a would've been win).

I've been arguing all along that margin of victory is statistical noise.

And end of year I'm looking at OPPA+- Rankings with the same top 4 teams as "The Committee" (in a different order).

Would you care to comment Casper how you believe I stumbled onto the same Top 4 without accounting for margin of victory?
Last Edited: 12/8/2014 9:57:14 PM by The Situation
L.C.
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Posted: 12/8/2014 10:31 PM
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The Situation wrote:expand_more
...
Would you care to comment Casper how you believe I stumbled onto the same Top 4 without accounting for margin of victory?

There is no way the committee would be allowed to consider margin of victory. That has been the rule for a long time. Use of the margin of victory is not politically correct as it encourages teams to run up scores. None of the computer ratings that have gone into the BCS choices have been allowed to use margin of victory since 2000.

BTW, congratulations on correctly predicting the top 4.
Last Edited: 12/8/2014 10:31:54 PM by L.C.
Casper71
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Posted: 12/8/2014 10:34 PM
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Uh, a number of the talking heads had the four teams without using your system. What I have tried to say was that if one of the four did not belong it was FSU because of their play the last four weeks. But that does not mean I was the least bit surprised they were in.
JSF
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Posted: 12/9/2014 12:44 AM
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So because the won less impressively for the last four weeks, that undoes everything?
The Situation
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Posted: 12/9/2014 8:21 AM
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JSF wrote:expand_more
So because the won less impressively for the last four weeks, that undoes everything?
Any time someone wants to throw out or illegitmize 60-70% of the available data mined under the same constraints we know they have no intention of a fair argument.

I pity the fool that pays for that opinion.

And hypothetically, if you are really to rank teams based solely on the last four weeks, shouldn't every team be ranked on the last 4 weeks? (Including the 2-1 Ohio Bobcats)
Casper71
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Posted: 12/9/2014 9:34 AM
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Situation, I want to be real honest with you. I respect the research you've done on the OPAA+-. You have obviously put a lot of time and effort into the rankings. I think the tweaks that many on this board suggested probably made the rankings even better. I would only say that like the Sagrin rankings, there are always limits to objectively trying to rank teams. That is why they play the games on the field not on paper.

Having said that, and on an even more serious note, and I really mean this...with all the effort you have put into the OPAA+- and the accuracy you got from the rankings this year you should seriously see if there is any commerccial value. It is obvioously your passion and I always say you have to do something in life that you really enjoy. And, if you could somehow turn the "rankings" into a system that not only ranks but gives a team strength quotient/point spread I am here to tell you, you could make enough money to fund the FB and the entire athletic program for the next decade.

Good luck!
The Situation
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Posted: 12/9/2014 12:58 PM
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Thank you for the words of encouragement Casper. I appreciate it.

I too believe there is an opportunity identify spread mismatches and potentially benefit financially. Following the creation of OPPA, the model was 2 of 4 on "Pick 3" spread mismatches over the remainder of the season (which are not disclosed). Someone I may or may not know may have potentially been able to realize a 300% ROI.

Certainly outcomes are not guranteed. But as with black jack, there are better times to double down than others. With OPPA you can see all the cards, but the ones coming next. (smh at the Stanford upset of UCLA)

Spread mis-matches historically only appear from ~Week 7-8 through the end of the year. But they don't necessarily appear every week in that period of time as underrated teams play other underrated teams among other reasons.
Last Edited: 12/9/2014 12:59:24 PM by The Situation
Ozcat
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Posted: 12/9/2014 2:39 PM
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Casper71 wrote:expand_more
Deciduous, you are half way there...now look at the SCORES and OPPONENTS!

(Forgets that TCU barely beat Kansas by 4 and that Baylor only beat Texas Tech by 2)
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