Recently just one down year and a general uptrend--really?
There is a direct parallel between 2013-2014 and 2007-2008. The recruits from 2002-2003 powered the team to success in 2006, and then left, leaving a rebuilding time. The recruits from 2008-2009 powered the team to success from 2011-12, and then left a rebuilding time. During the first valley (2007-2008) the team was a combined 10-14 (.417). During the second valley, 2013-4, the team was a combined 13-12 (.520). Was this improvement because of playing more easy teams? Splitting it by winning record/not winning record, 2007-8 was 1-4 against teams with winning records, and 9-9 against teams without winning records. The 2013-14 teams were 2-8 against teams with winning records, and 11-4 against teams without a winning record.
When I look at data and try to determine if there is an uptrend, I usually connect the valleys and see if the direction is pointed up or down. If I connect .417 to .520 6 years later, I get a general uptrend. It is also true that the last peak (2009-2012) was both higher and broader than the peak before (2006), another indicator of an uptrend. Will the next peak (2015-2018) be higher than the last peak (2009-2012)? Since I believe that the uptrend continues to be true, I certainly expect that.
There is a difference between a 20 yard pass and a 20 yard completion. Going 2-4 with 10 yards passing leaves no room for the above mentioned "explosive" pass play. Moot point.
Yes, OCF already acknowledged that he must have been mistaken about whether the pass was complete or not. I do agree with you that Billy's point about whether 20 yards was a big play or not was moot, but it was interesting to learn that, while you hear lots of people talking about "explosive plays", there is no consensus about exactly what constitutes an "explosive play".
By the way, one of the things I love about this board is the use of language. Moot is a word that I think is misused more often than it is used correctly, and in this case, it applies perfectly, since Billy's question, whether a 20 yard pass was a "big play", was in this case simply an abstract question that does not arise from existing facts.
Last Edited: 4/8/2015 5:09:25 PM by L.C.