I like the third one best, personally. You have to give the NIU promotion staff credit for drumming interest in the the things they are doing. With their promotions, and the quality of their teams, it's hard for me to grasp why their attendance keeps falling.
For many of the same reasons our real (not sold) attendance is weak most games: Weekday night games in frigid weather. TV providing a better experience. Apathy toward MAC opponents. Relative isolation from population centers.
I posted more detailed data in this thread:
http://tinyurl.com/n4lzgcgNone of the factors that you give seem to explain the data. In 2005 they averaged over 22,000, but last year they only averaged 13,500. The game by game data is awful:
August 28th, Saturday, 6PM v. Presbyterian 12,338
Oct. 4th, Saturday, 4PM v. Kent 15,620
Oct. 11th, Saturday, 4PM v. CMU 20,122
Oct. 18th, Saturday, 4PM v. Miami (Oh) 11,211
Nov. 11th, Tuesday 7PM v. Toledo for West Crown, 8,462
OK, the Nov. 11th game was a Tuesday, but the attendance was bad for all of the Saturday games before it. We could throw in the argument that "no one wants to see FCS teams like Presbyterian", but if that was the problem, why did over 26,000 show up to see Tennessee Tech in 2005? The fact is that 9 of their top 30 attendance games all time were against FCS foes, so I don't think that's the reason, either.
Was the weather horrible on all these dates? Possible, I guess, but doubtful. In the end, I have no idea why their attendance keeps dropping.