Bobcat Attack - Ohio Football - Whate are the odds that Ohio wins the last three games?

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Topic: Whate are the odds that Ohio wins the last three games?

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L.C.

11/13/2024 3:58 PM

These aren't specific odds, obtained from detailed analysis, but for argument's sake, lets say that the favorite in a MAC game has a 2/3 chance of winning, and a 1/3 chance of losing. Ohio will be favored against EMU, and probably also against Ball St, but will be the underdog against Toledo. Thus, their odds of getting to 7-1 in the MAC are currently about (2/3)*(1/3)*(2/3), or about a 15% chance.

That's a real chance, but it is still pretty long odds, so keep that in mind. If this team manages to pull it off, they have accomplished a lot. If you add on that a 50% chance of winning the MACC game, that drops the chance of winning the MACC to about 7.5%. Again, it's not likely, but not impossible. TeamRankings actually gives Ohio a slightly better chance, of 11.6%, so I like that better.

Go Bobcats! Beat EMU, and we'll worry about the rest later.

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Victory

11/13/2024 7:04 PM

teaamrankings chance at winning the last 3: 22.1%
Massey:22.3%
ESPN FPI:17.1%

I tried this on my own ratings and get 29.8%

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M.D.W.S.T

11/13/2024 9:25 PM

ESPN had up a graphic early. It was BG and Toledo 1-2 in the MACC.

Somewhat surprised to see Toledo as #2 best odds. That assumes we lose to them. And that BG beats Miami.

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BillyTheCat

11/13/2024 9:56 PM

M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more

ESPN had up a graphic early. It was BG and Toledo 1-2 in the MACC.

Somewhat surprised to see Toledo as #2 best odds. That assumes we lose to them. And that BG beats Miami.

If you go on history, we don’t fare well vs Toledo.

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Andrew Ruck

11/14/2024 8:18 AM

Are there any early lines for the Toledo game? Very curious to see where that shakes out, I would guess only a line of 3ish. Ohio's point diff in the MAC is +109 while Toledo's is +15.

Last Edited: 11/14/2024 8:24:03 AM by Andrew Ruck

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L.C.

11/14/2024 8:37 AM

Victory wrote:expand_more

teaamrankings chance at winning the last 3: 22.1%
Massey:22.3%
ESPN FPI:17.1%

I tried this on my own ratings and get 29.8% [/QUOTE]
Odds are somewhat better now. TeamRankings has Ohio's odds of winning the last two at 32.9%. They still show 6 teams as possible MAC champions, so everyone in the top 6 has some chance.

I did an interesting analysis. I split the MAC into two halves, the top 7, and the rest. Only once has one of "the rest" beaten one of the top 7, that being Ball State beating NIU. Viewing the top 7 as a mini-conference of it's own, the records are:
BG 2-1 with one to play (Miami)
Miami 1-1 with two to play (BG, NIU)
Ohio 1-1 with one to play (Toledo)
Buffalo 2-2 final
Toledo 2-2 with one to play (Ohio)
NIU 2-2 with one to play (Miami)
WMU 1-2 final

It looks to me like the top 7 are all very even, and any team that ends up with a final winning record in this mini-conference will likely be one of the teams in the MACC game, unless they have a loss to Ball State. That latter already applies to NIU, and if Ohio isn't careful, could apply to them, as well. While not everyone played the same number of Top teams, it seems that the system works, and the best teams will end up being the final two.

Right now, it looks to me like the most likely MACC game will be the winner of the Ohio-Toledo game versus the winner of the Miami-BG game, though a Ball State win over Ohio or an NIU win over Miami could mess that up.

[QUOTE=BillyTheCat]If you go on history, we don’t fare well vs Toledo.

Only one win for Ohio in the Glass Bowl since 1968.... but, all streaks eventually end. Now would be a good time for that one to end.

Last Edited: 11/14/2024 9:12:55 AM by L.C.

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Tymaster

11/14/2024 10:05 AM

Toledo favored by 2.5 as of rn. We've one once up there since 1968, I believe. I'd say this is the toughest game of the Albin era. A bowl is inevitable but it will seem anticlimactic if we can't beat Toledo in the Glass Bowl but it's certainly a tall order, even from the best teams of the Solich era.

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Victory

11/14/2024 11:01 AM

L.C. wrote:expand_more

Victory wrote:expand_more

teaamrankings chance at winning the last 3: 22.1%
Massey:22.3%
ESPN FPI:17.1%

I tried this on my own ratings and get 29.8%

Odds are somewhat better now. TeamRankings has Ohio's odds of winning the last two at 32.9%. They still show 6 teams as possible MAC champions, so everyone in the top 6 has some chance.

I did an interesting analysis. I split the MAC into two halves, the top 7, and the rest. Only once has one of "the rest" beaten one of the top 7, that being Ball State beating NIU. Viewing the top 7 as a mini-conference of it's own, the records are:
BG 2-1 with one to play (Miami)
Miami 1-1 with two to play (BG, NIU)
Ohio 1-1 with one to play (Toledo)
Buffalo 2-2 final
Toledo 2-2 with one to play (Ohio)
NIU 2-2 with one to play (Miami)
WMU 1-2 final

It looks to me like the top 7 are all very even, and any team that ends up with a final winning record in this mini-conference will likely be one of the teams in the MACC game, unless they have a loss to Ball State. That latter already applies to NIU, and if Ohio isn't careful, could apply to them, as well. While not everyone played the same number of Top teams, it seems that the system works, and the best teams will end up being the final two.

Right now, it looks to me like the most likely MACC game will be the winner of the Ohio-Toledo game versus the winner of the Miami-BG game, though a Ball State win over Ohio or an NIU win over Miami could mess that up.

BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more

If you go on history, we don’t fare well vs Toledo.

Only one win for Ohio in the Glass Bowl since 1968.... but, all streaks eventually end. Now would be a good time for that one to end.

Massey is now at 34.0% and FPI at 31.77. This shows what I said about a month ago. The MAC schedule was friendly to WMU and Ohio and not friendly at all to Toledo and NIU.

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L.C.

11/14/2024 3:19 PM

Victory wrote:expand_more

...
This shows what I said about a month ago. The MAC schedule was friendly to WMU and Ohio and not friendly at all to Toledo and NIU.

That is certainly true. Ohio and WMU each played only 3 of the top 7 teams. BG, Miami, and Buffalo each play 4, while Toledo and NIU each play 5. What I commented that is interesting, however, is that regardless of how many team they played, any team that wins more than half will likely be in the MACC game, (with the exception of NIU):
If BG beats Miami to go 3-1, they will be in (unless they lose to Ball State)
In Miami beats both BG and NIU to go 3-1, they will be in
If Ohio beats Toledo to go 2-1, they will be in (unless they lose to Ball State)
If Toledo beats Ohio to go 3-2, they may be in, but could be excluded via tiebreaker. If so, they are the one team that was hurt by the harder schedule.
NIU could beat Miami to go 3-2, but they will still not be in, solely because they lost to Ball State

Win more than half, you are in, but beware of Ball State, as a loss to them will knock you back out.

Last Edited: 11/14/2024 4:03:33 PM by L.C.

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OhioBobcat

11/14/2024 3:52 PM

Ohio is rolling and no one wants to have to play them right now. This isn’t the same kind of Toledo team we’ve seen the last few years and there’s no way is Ball State winning in Peden. Ohio is Motor City bound. The real question is, against who? I think it’ll be a rematch vs Miami - with a different outcome!

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mid70sbobcat

11/14/2024 11:03 PM

OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more

LOL. Your posting history, certainly optimistic, makes me laugh. I love the optimism, but cringe at the outcomes over time. I hope we win both games, but you seem incapable of realizing any MAC game can have ANY outcome.

PS Re: "No one wants to play us right now" ...... 4 EMU TO's gave us the game. We were losing 7-0.

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Ohio69

11/15/2024 10:11 AM

mid70sbobcat wrote:expand_more

OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more

Meh. So negative. I saw a high IQ, motivated, athletic D make some great plays. Jumped routes. Diving INT downfield. DE tip and dive for an INT. And a QB step up and account for 383 yards and 4TDs. All good stuff.

We have the ability to win out. We won't quit because mid70sbobcat bombed Pearl Harbor. Lets Do This!

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L.C.

11/15/2024 8:42 PM

Ohio69 wrote:expand_more

...
We have the ability to win out. We won't quit because mid70sbobcat bombed Pearl Harbor. Lets Do This!

...And we won't win because OhioBobcat guaranteed a win. Ohio just needs to keep improving every week, keep focused, and take care of business.

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L.C.

11/16/2024 5:21 PM

Victory wrote:expand_more

... This shows what I said about a month ago. The MAC schedule was friendly to WMU and Ohio and not friendly at all to Toledo and NIU.

Yes, in the MAC, the schedules are slightly unbalanced, with some teams playing three games among the top 7, and other teams playing five. Consider the Big Ten/Eighteen. I was impressed that Indiana was 7-0 in conference play, and then started looking at their schedule. As it happens, among the Big "Ten", there are 8 teams with less than four in-conference losses, and 10 teams with four or more losses. Indiana is undefeated, but this year their schedule includes only one team from among the top 8 teams. By contrast, Michigan plays five of the top 8 teams. That's what happens with a conference gets too big.

Last Edited: 11/16/2024 5:23:31 PM by L.C.

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Tymaster

11/18/2024 1:13 PM

History tells me that this team winning out PLUS winning the MACC game and whatever Bowl, just isn't likely. More likely? A loss to Toledo, followed by a win against BSU and a Bowl win.

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ExCat21

11/19/2024 8:14 PM

L.C. wrote:expand_more

Victory wrote:expand_more

...
This shows what I said about a month ago. The MAC schedule was friendly to WMU and Ohio and not friendly at all to Toledo and NIU.

Buffalo holds the tie over Toledo if Rockets beat us. Buffalo would move up 3 spots from 5th to 2nd. Remember Buffalo beat Toledo who beat Miami so they are rooting for Toledo to beat us and BG beating Miami.

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M.D.W.S.T

11/20/2024 9:15 AM

Tymaster wrote:expand_more

History tells me that this team winning out PLUS winning the MACC game and whatever Bowl, just isn't likely. More likely? A loss to Toledo, followed by a win against BSU and a Bowl win.

I hate this and you're correct.

Toledo has been my big loss all season. Unfortunately, we also got a big loss against Miami so now we HAVE TO win.

This is a flawed team, but what they do well - they do very well. If we can run it down their throat and not turn it over, I think we win without a ton of stress.

If we get cute, which Tim has big brained himself into doing the opposite when everyone sees a clear path to victory before, and come out throwing because everyone thinks we're gonna run... oof.

Toledo is a great 3 loss team. Hopefully after tonight, they're a great 4 loss team.

Stupid Miami.

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L.C.

11/20/2024 10:27 PM

Two down, one to go. I don't want to have to worry about possible tie-breakers if Ohio were to lose to Ball State.

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bobcatsquared

11/20/2024 10:28 PM

I'd say around 87% after beating EMU and UT.