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Topic: Let the countdowns begin
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Pataskala
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Posted: 4/24/2015 10:11 PM
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We're less than 128 days away from the first kickoff of the 2015 regular season, and the Orlando Sentinel's countdown of 1A teams has begun. Here are those relevant to the Bobcats (for some reason we're having trouble maintaining links to the Sentinel):

Idaho #127
CMU #124 Worst in the MAC. Didn't see that coming.
Fiami #113 Only one MAC team in the bottom 15! A first!!!
Kent #110
EMU #101
Akron #99
UMass #91 -- a bit surprising; I think they'll be upper half of the MAC
Buffalo #82
WMU #74
OHIO #65 (better than I thought)
BSU #55
Minn #44
Toledo #41 http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/college/college-gri...
T'erd #40 http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/college/college-gri...
BG #36 http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/college/college-gri...
NIU #29 http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/college/college-gri...
Last Edited: 7/30/2015 11:45:08 AM by Pataskala
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 4/25/2015 12:08 PM
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So, we're opening our season against the dead=worst-ranked team (in this ranking)?

Can't wait for us to win so all the pundits here can point to that as a sign that everything is A-okay with OHIO FOOTBALL.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 4/25/2015 2:24 PM
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Please stop exaggerating, Monroe.;-) Idaho is ranked the second worst FBS team at 127. They ranked UNLV #128. And, don't expect this game to be a blow out Frank will use enough firepower to win, but he's not likely to run up the score unless our third team scores at will against them.
perimeterpost
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Posted: 4/25/2015 2:47 PM
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using a win against Idaho to declare that everything is ok with the program is no more ridiculous that using the win to declare that it isn't.
Bcat2
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Posted: 4/25/2015 4:45 PM
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perimeterpost wrote:expand_more
using a win against Idaho to declare that everything is ok with the program is no more ridiculous that using the win to declare that it isn't.
Touche
C Money
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Posted: 4/25/2015 5:22 PM
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Deciduous Forest Cat
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Posted: 4/25/2015 6:46 PM
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Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
So, we're opening our season against the dead=worst-ranked team (in this ranking)?

Can't wait for us to win so all the pundits here can point to that as a sign that everything is A-okay with OHIO FOOTBALL.
Which no one will actually do, but you'll act like they did. And then you'll DEMAND answers!
L.C.
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Posted: 4/25/2015 7:38 PM
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C Money wrote:expand_more

Cute, but no. This is the reaction to a win by 4 1/2 TDs:
http://tinyurl.com/l4yypn3
LuckySparrow
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Posted: 4/29/2015 10:23 PM
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Ordered over $100 worth of Bobcat gear today. I'm all set for this season.
L.C.
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Posted: 5/9/2015 12:08 PM
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Just to show how differently people can view things, CMU is listed very low in this poll, but in the article that was recently linked on the home page, projecting the bowl games for the upcoming year, CMU was one of the six mentioned as possible bowl contenders from the MAC.
L.C.
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Posted: 5/22/2015 1:15 PM
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The order I expected to seem them was:
EMU #101 [They have EMU way higher than I do]
(huge gap)

CMU #124 [They have CMU somewhat lower than I do]
Miami #113
(gap)

Akron #99
Kent #110
Buffalo #82 (They have Buffalo somewhat higher than I do
(gap)

NIU
Ohio #65
U.Mass #91 [They have UMass somewhat lower than i do]
Ball State #55
Toledo #41
BG
WMU #74 (They have WMU lower than I do)

They are apparently expecting huge improvement at EMU. I don't see any reason to expect that magnitude of improvement. Even if Chris Creighton does a good job there over the long term, they are so far behind the rest of the MAC that it will take long while before they are no longer last.

The rest of the rankings aren't too surprising so far, though I'd reverse Kent and Akron.

Edit - I'd also reverse UMass and Buffalo, and I'd have WMU quite a bit higher
Last Edited: 7/19/2015 7:04:26 PM by L.C.
Pataskala
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Posted: 5/22/2015 4:46 PM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
The order I expected to seem them was:
EMU #101
(huge gap)

CMU #124
Miami #113
(gap)

Akron #99
Kent #110
Buffalo
(gap)

NIU
Ohio
U.Mass
Ball State
Toledo
BG
WMU

They are apparently expecting huge improvement at EMU. I don't see any reason to expect that magnitude of improvement. Even if Chris Creighton does a good job there over the long term, they are so far behind the rest of the MAC that it will take long while before they are no longer last.

The rest of the rankings aren't too surprising so far, though I'd reverse Kent and Akron.
I don't know if it's so much an improvement on EMU's part as it is downgrading of some "P"5 teams. There are seven "P"5 teams in the 100+ crowd (Oregon St., Colorado, Purdue, Syracuse, Iowa St, UVA and Kansas), including two of the bottom four. I don't recall seeing that many "P"5 teams ranked so low in previous years.
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Posted: 5/22/2015 4:58 PM
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Pataskala wrote:expand_more
I don't know if it's so much an improvement on EMU's part as it is downgrading of some "P"5 teams. There are seven "P"5 teams in the 100+ crowd (Oregon St., Colorado, Purdue, Syracuse, Iowa St, UVA and Kansas), including two of the bottom four. I don't recall seeing that many "P"5 teams ranked so low in previous years.

To put it in perspective, using Sagarin ratings, EMU last year was #208, 40 positions lower than anyone else in the MAC, and below most FCS schools. If you tell me that they can knock over a pile of cinderblocks with a sledgehammer, I'll believe you. If you tell me that they can move from #208 to 101 in a year, I'll have to see it first.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 5/29/2015 10:51 PM
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I'd pick us over EMU. On their field or ours?
Pataskala
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Posted: 5/30/2015 12:50 PM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
I don't know if it's so much an improvement on EMU's part as it is downgrading of some "P"5 teams. There are seven "P"5 teams in the 100+ crowd (Oregon St., Colorado, Purdue, Syracuse, Iowa St, UVA and Kansas), including two of the bottom four. I don't recall seeing that many "P"5 teams ranked so low in previous years.

To put it in perspective, using Sagarin ratings, EMU last year was #208, 40 positions lower than anyone else in the MAC, and below most FCS schools. If you tell me that they can knock over a pile of cinderblocks with a sledgehammer, I'll believe you. If you tell me that they can move from #208 to 101 in a year, I'll have to see it first.
Of course, the Sentinel ranks only the 1A/BS schools; the 1AA/CS schools aren't included. As I recall, last year EMU was somewhere around 125 of the 128 1A schools. Still, I don't they'll be better than a lot of the teams the Sentinel has ranked below 101, and they certainly won't be that much better than they were last year.
L.C.
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Posted: 5/30/2015 2:37 PM
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Let me say it another way, then. The Sentinel has EMU ranked #101. I believe that if EMU played a 12 game schedule of teams ranked between #102 and #125, they would end up no better than 1-11. I personally would rank EMU deserves #128 until they prove they deserve to be higher.
L.C.
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Posted: 6/1/2015 6:19 PM
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Athlon apparently is counting in the other direction:
http://athlonsports.com/college-football/top-25

They have MAC teams at:
#75 Toledo
#78 BG
#80 NIU
#81 WMU
#92 UMass
#94 Ball State
#97 Akron
#98 Ohio
#105 Buffalo
#111 CMU

Edit - A couple more teams have now been added.
Not yet ranked are Kent State, EMU, and Miami. Here is their writeup for Ohio:
http://tinyurl.com/nk9hlzz
Last Edited: 6/2/2015 11:29:09 AM by L.C.
Paul Graham
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Posted: 6/1/2015 6:44 PM
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That was a surprisingly good analysis.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 6/1/2015 10:49 PM
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Paul Graham wrote:expand_more
That was a surprisingly good analysis.
+1 I agree that it was a good objective analysis and the writer seems to have done a decent amount of homework. It'll be interesting to see what Phil Steele says when his analysis is available. He's had a real good track record at predicting OHIO specifically and the MAC in general.
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Posted: 6/1/2015 11:43 PM
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The review is factual as stated, but they sure don't go out on a limb much with a projected #4 in the MAC East. Doesn't really make much sense to me. With all the experience returning, you would think he could at least stretch to #3.
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Posted: 6/2/2015 11:34 AM
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colobobcat66 wrote:expand_more
The review is factual as stated, but they sure don't go out on a limb much with a projected #4 in the MAC East. Doesn't really make much sense to me. With all the experience returning, you would think he could at least stretch to #3.

Well that's true, but I see their ratings as placing the MAC in tiers:
Tier 1 (#75-81) Toledo, BG, NIU, and WMU
Tier 2 (#92-98) UMass, Ball State, Akron, and Ohio
Tier 3 (#105-111) Buffalo, CMU
Tier 4 Kent, Miami, EMU

I don't have any major disagreement with these tiers, though I think Akron belongs in Tier 3.
TheBobcatBandit
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Posted: 6/2/2015 3:15 PM
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Their rank for us in the MAC doesn't match their prediction of our season. If we're 4th in the MAC east there is no way we make a bowl. For the past two years the team that finished 4th went 5-7. Not to mention we were 2nd in the east last year. How do they have us dropping two spots while we return almost everyone.
C Money
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Posted: 6/2/2015 4:15 PM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
I don't have any major disagreement with these tiers, though I think Akron belongs in Tier 3.
Agreed. Kron is overrated until they prove otherwise. And I MIGHT move BUGS into Tier 2 until I see evidence that their defense has improved.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 6/2/2015 4:54 PM
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Review seems reasonable.

This is beginning to have an odor about it.

Five thousand fans is about the difference. The difference between a lackluster, very average, very quiet--Hey, are we in a library here??--crowd and real enthusiasm, intenseness intensity and an actual home field, sorry, no-room-turning-'em-away-at-the-gate, ya-better-get-there-early-to-get-a-seat home field advantage that actually means something.

I get that Athens' remote location makes bringing in an additional 5000 fans somewhat of a challenge.

But 5000 is not a large number--if we're winning and playing exciting ball.

I said "if we're winning and playing exciting ball."



How long ?????
Last Edited: 6/2/2015 4:55:17 PM by Monroe Slavin
L.C.
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Posted: 6/2/2015 5:10 PM
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C Money wrote:expand_more
I don't have any major disagreement with these tiers, though I think Akron belongs in Tier 3.
Agreed. Kron is overrated until they prove otherwise. And I MIGHT move BUGS into Tier 2 until I see evidence that their defense has improved.

I agree with that as well. BG does have a new DC, so their defense will be different. Their offense should be very good, though.

As for Kron, the thing is that they improved a lot, quickly, since Bowden took over, however they did a lot of it with JUCOs and transfers. The problem with that approach is that you are constantly reloading, so after a couple years it is difficult to make more progress, and easy to give up some of the gains. I'm curious to see how the next couple years work out for them.
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