So the Tim Beckman firing got me thinking about why some of the guys even get hired away from the MAC. They have one(or a couple) awesome players, dominate the MAC for a season, and go on their way. Tim Beckman seemed like one who was just taking the payday he was offered. No real reason he deserved the job in the first place. I can't imagine anyone thought they got a diamond in the rough when he was hired by Illinois.

I'm not going to suggest these guys shouldn't take an offer 5X their salary compared to what they get in the MAC, but really how many of them are going to be successful at their next school? You can see it coming, no? To me it is obvious that half or so of the coaches that move on rode the coattails of a QB that has pro potential or something similar. A QB that dominates the MAC can make any coach look good, I guess. How does another school deem that as 'next-level' worthy?

Anyway, I tried to make a list of a few guys that have moved on. It's by no means complete, but I tried to give my take on who left and earned it versus who didn't. Feel free to add/critique the list.

Earned it:
- Gary Pinkel. Had a winning season almost every season.
- Urban Meyer, he's pretty good, but thanks Josh Harris for the shot.
- Jim Grobe. Won with a perennial losing team. And very little star power.
- Brian Kelly. He's an ass but he's good, and won a lot.

Not sure:
- Doug Martin doesn't understand how he still has a FBS HC job. And for the record I think he quit his MAC HC spot so he wouldn't be let go.
- Derek Mason, jury still out. Didn't come the head coaching route. And Vanderbilt can't seem to win consistently no matter what
- Butch Jones. Won in MAC, but seems like anyone could have at CMU at that time with Lefevor & Antonio Brown. If he recruited either I might reconsider which I assume he did not.
- Jerry Kill. Ho hum for NIU standards. But thanks his lucky stars for Chandler Harnish for his last year.

No way:
- Turner Gill. How in the heck did this even happen in the first place?
- Tim Beckman thanks Adonis Thomas for his ~2 million dollar payday.
- Brady Hoke thanks Nate Davis for his ticket out of Muncie. Very pedestrian at all of his stops.
- Darrell Hazell thanks Dri Archer for the opportunity to get rich while failing at Purdue.
- Steve Adazzio still doesn't know how he got the BC job.
- Dave Clawson thanks the crappy MAC for his shot but still confusing how he got to leave.
- Mike Haywood. Didn't get a chance to prove he was unworthy though.

And sidenote, funny that multiple fired MAC HCs get their shot at coaching a big ten school, because of the cheating that goes on there. Thinking IU basketball(Dakich) & Illinois football(Cubit) here. Get into an assistant seat, and you'll get your shot eventually.

Another interesting category would be guys who stayed too long.

Gary Darnell
Gary Blackney

Another name you missed is Dave Doeren, and I think he probably belongs in the highest group, though you could also argue that it's still too early to tell. I'd also remove one from the list. I don't think Dave Martin belongs on the list at all. He wasn't hired away, he either fired, or quit (perhaps to avoid being fired), and then ended up as an assistant coach at New Mexico State, and backed into the temporary head coaching job there when the head DeWayne Walker left mid-season. That's a very different situation than the others on the list.

I'd also put Kill higher, as he's the one that built the NIU juggernaut, much as Kelly built CMU into a power. He has also done a very impressive job at Minnesota, and appears to be on track to be their winningest coach since their glory years (1920-1949).

One last comment is that I don't see how you find much separation between Jim Grobe and Dave Clawson. Both won about half their total games in the MAC, but left their respective football teams in a much better situation than when they started. Both ended at Wake Forest, a place that is very difficult to win, historically. While Clawson's first year wasn't great, it's a little early to throw him under bus just yet. In any case, his first year was no worse than Derek Mason, who you also have in a higher group.

Interesting analysis.

I cannot blame a guy taking the cash, but I really believe that if some of these coaches took a more long-term view on the matter they might stick around. You look at a guy like Groce in basketball. Great coach in a lot of areas. Seemingly has everything it takes to succeed at high-major level. There is more to it though... So much rides on hitting on the right recruits. YES, there is heavy skill involved in recruiting the right guys but there is just so much variance. You might pick a guy for all the right reasons and he just doesn't pan out for whatever reason. If you stick around at the school you are at, your success builds on itself and you are able to target a higher caliber recruit. For instance, Groce stays and he is likely able to target/sign higher level recruits. There is still some luck/uncertainty, but being in this conference the base quality you need is lower so you really can escalate it quickly.

I admit I thought Al Golden was a good fit for the U. He was kinda flashy, seemed like that was perfect for Miami... If he gets canned, maybe they go after PJ Fleck... Another guy I would deem as "flashy" who seems like he could work for the U.

I'll disagree with you on Kill. Minnesota is probably one of the hardest places to both recruit and win in the Big Ten just based on location alone. Add that to the other power programs already in the conference that a potential recruit might go to, plus NDSU not far away either and you've got a lot of work on your hands. They've won 8 games the past two years and looked pretty primed to do it again if both Wisconsin and Nebraska take another step back.

Butch Jones is a great recruiter, now he just needs to win at Tennessee. This year is a big year for both him and the program.

Reading this the second time, I'm pretty sure I'm reading it more as intended this time. The first thought was, are they as good as it seemed when they moved up. The second time reading it, though, I see that you meant it as, did they really earn the break to move up or were they just the benefactors of good fortune and maybe a single good team?

I think this argument would be very interesting on the basketball side as well. Somebody like Dambrot has been able to establish a reputation and a program, not just a flash in the pan type of team. The question could be flipped to ask whether somebody like Saul deserved the move to here after his success in NDSU (I'd say yes).

I guess Bill Cubit is the new interim Head Coach at Illinois, so he as acquired a head coaching job in much the same way Martin acquired one. Unless he has a really good year, I would expect he wouldn't stay on, however, unlike Martin. Of course, Martin's stay might end soon, too.