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Topic: MAC P5 wins, by year
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L.C.
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Posted: 9/1/2015 7:00 PM
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Based on the MAC Weekly Press release, here are wins over teams that are now P5:
2000 (4) - Vanderbilt, Minnesota, Penn St, Iowa
2001 (3) - Missouri, Minnesota, Northwestern
2002 (5) - Rutgers, N. Carolina, Missouri, Kansas, Wake Forest
2003 (7) - Kansas St, Northwestern, Purdue, Maryland, Alabama, Iowa St, Pitt
2004 (1) - Kentucky
2005 (1) - Pitt
2006 (4) - Kansas, Virginia, NC State, Illinois
2007 (5) - Iowa State twice, Iowa, Minnesota, Syracuse
2008 (6) - Indiana twice, Michigan, Illinois, Syracuse, Pitt
2009 (3) - Michigan St, Purdue, Colorado
2010 (2) - Minnesota, Purdue
2011 (2) - Indiana, Maryland
2012 (5) - Penn St, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Rutgers
2013 (3) - Iowa, Purdue, Virginia
2014 (4) - Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana, Pitt

On a conference by conference basis:
B1G Tenfinity - 31 wins
5 each Indiana and Illinois
4 each Iowa and Minnesota
3 Northwestern
2 each Penn St, Rutgers, Maryland, Illinois
1 each Michgan, Michigan St
The only schools not beaten are Ohio St, Nebraska, and Wisconsin

ACC - 11 Wins
4 Pitt
2 each Virginia, Syracuse
1 each NC, Wake Forest, NC St

Big Twelveten - 7 wins
3 each Kansas, Iowa St
1 Kansas St

SEC - 3 wins
1 each Vandy, Kentucky, and Alabama

PAC 12 - 1 win, Colorado

That's an average of 3.7 a year, and 4 a year for the last three years. Can the MAC manage 4 again this year? Last year before the season I predicted 4 wins, and that's exactly what the MAC got. I just don't see them getting 4 this year. In fact, I'm only expecting two wins. Here are the best chances:

I see two toss up games, Iowa State at Toledo and BG at Purdue. The MAC should expect one win from those two games.

I see four games where the MAC has about a one in four shot at wins, so I expect one win from the following 4 games:
UMass at Colorado
BG at Maryland
Ball State at Northwestern
Michigan State at WMU

Here are the rest of the games, ranked from most likely wins to least likely:
Kent at Illinois
BG versus Tenn (neutral site)
NIU at BC
Pitt at Akron
Ohio at Minnesota
CMU at Syracuse
Toledo at Arkansas
Ball State at Texas A&M
Kent at Minnesota
UMass at Notre Dame
WMU at Ohio State
Okahoma State at CMU
Buffalo at Penn State
NIU at Ohio State
Akron at Oklahoma
CMU at Michigan State
Miami at Wisconsin
and, ugly game of the year, EMU at LSU
Cats-22
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Posted: 9/1/2015 7:41 PM
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Not sure I'd give BG a better chance over Tenn than the MAC teams in some of those others (including Ohio at Minnesota).

Thanks very much for all the info LC.
Valley Cat
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Posted: 9/2/2015 10:54 AM
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Purdue at Marshall intrigues me. No MAC ties but certainly interesting for us.
GoCats105
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Posted: 9/2/2015 11:17 AM
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I'd probably give CMU a pretty good chance to win at Syracuse.

Kent at Illinois should be interesting. Kent's defense is good enough to win that game.
Last Edited: 9/2/2015 11:18:38 AM by GoCats105
Mike Johnson
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Posted: 9/2/2015 11:22 AM
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UMass at Notre Dame. Hmmm...Just how pumped will ND be for a supposed walkover opponent?
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 9/2/2015 11:04 PM
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On a tangent, a friend who's a U-Washington Huskies fan is not looking forward to their year: 3 members of their D taken first round 2015 draft...graduated 4/5 of their O-line starters with the 5th not playing (kicked off, I think he said). That, in the PAC-12 which has 6 teams in the top 25. And open Friday at highly ranked Boise State. Ouch.
L.C.
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Posted: 9/6/2015 9:21 AM
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Toss-Ups (Hopefully 1 of these)
Iowa State at Toledo
BG at Purdue

Some Chance (Hopefully one of these)
UMass at Colorado
BG at Maryland
Ball State at Northwestern
Michigan State at WMU -13 (Mich St 37, WMU 24)

Unlikely
Kent at Illinois -49 (Illinois 52, Kent 3)
BG versus Tenn (neutral site) -29 (Tennesee 59, BG 30)
NIU at BC
Pitt at Akron
Ohio at Minnesota
CMU at Syracuse
Toledo at Arkansas
Ball State at Texas A&M
Kent at Minnesota
UMass at Notre Dame
WMU at Ohio State
Okahoma State at CMU -11 (OK State 24, CMU 13)
Buffalo at Penn State
NIU at Ohio State
Akron at Oklahoma
CMU at Michigan State
Miami at Wisconsin
EMU at LSU
Mike Johnson
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Posted: 9/6/2015 10:34 AM
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Once again FCS teams knocked off some FBS teams:

South Dakota State over Kansas
North Dakota over Wyoming
Fordham over Army
Portland over Washington State

Pitt exacted "revenge" for its 2012 31-17 loss to Youngstown State by "trouncing" YSU 45-37.

Indiana needed a goal-line stop on Southern Ill's 2-pt conversion attempt to prevail 48-47.

East Carolina fans might have been a tad nervous while watching the Pirates take Towson 28-20.

SE LA won big; hoping the Bobcats don't take a nap against the Lions.
LuckySparrow
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Posted: 9/6/2015 3:31 PM
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Seems like WMU put up a good performance against a highly ranked MSU? Nice. And BG/Tennessee was close at times.

BG probably should beat Purdue.

Also, stating the obvious, but it would be so glorious to see a MAC team beat A&M. While we're at it, Wisconsin and Nebraska too just to have the Big 10 completed.
Last Edited: 9/6/2015 3:32:49 PM by LuckySparrow
L.C.
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Posted: 9/6/2015 5:07 PM
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LuckySparrow wrote:expand_more
Seems like WMU put up a good performance against a highly ranked MSU? Nice. ...

Yes, but that was expected. I thought they had a chance to win. The biggest surprise to me was how well CMU played.
BillyTheCat
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Posted: 9/7/2015 9:42 AM
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Western was a pipe dream.
L.C.
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Posted: 9/7/2015 10:39 AM
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BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
Western was a pipe dream.

Lol, I didn't say likely, just a chance. Every year there are a few upsets, and an upset here wasn't impossible.
Athens
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Posted: 9/9/2015 7:11 PM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
Based on the MAC Weekly Press release, here are wins over teams that are now P5:
2000 (4) - Vanderbilt, Minnesota, Penn St, Iowa
2001 (3) - Missouri, Minnesota, Northwestern
2002 (5) - Rutgers, N. Carolina, Missouri, Kansas, Wake Forest
2003 (7) - Kansas St, Northwestern, Purdue, Maryland, Alabama, Iowa St, Pitt
2004 (1) - Kentucky
2005 (1) - Pitt
2006 (4) - Kansas, Virginia, NC State, Illinois
2007 (5) - Iowa State twice, Iowa, Minnesota, Syracuse
2008 (6) - Indiana twice, Michigan, Illinois, Syracuse, Pitt
2009 (3) - Michigan St, Purdue, Colorado
2010 (2) - Minnesota, Purdue
2011 (2) - Indiana, Maryland
2012 (5) - Penn St, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Rutgers
2013 (3) - Iowa, Purdue, Virginia
2014 (4) - Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana, Pitt
When the MAC has a very good year the next couple of seasons tend to have a drop off in performance. For a typical MAC team to hit 8 wins it requires a senior QB and senior playmaker on defense. Ohio's averaged 7.5 wins since Frank's second season in Athens. With recruiting pretty much the same every year at the non-skill positions the key to having a Top 25 year at a MAC school resides on getting lucky on a skill player. A non-qualifier that should be at an SEC school. Marshall landing Randy Moss or BGSU landing Roger Lewis are two good examples of this.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 9/9/2015 11:43 PM
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How often have I posted that ya gotta have stars, playmakers?!
Athens
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Posted: 9/10/2015 12:05 AM
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Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
How often have I posted that ya gotta have stars, playmakers?!
Well you don't have to have stars to go 7-5 out of the MAC but if you're talking about making a major bowl I think its crucial. SEC teams that are usually mediocre follow this pattern. Once in a while Ole Miss will have an exceptional player (Eli Manning) but then drop back into obscurity. Having success consistently at the top like TCU or Miami Fl did in years before requires a natural recruiting advantage over other schools.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 9/10/2015 2:49 AM
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Wes--To MACC, ya gotta have a pretty serious number of 1st and 2nd team All-MAC. Not necessarily SEC caliber or sure pro prospects (though that'd be good!)--but top of MAC guys.

Very difficult to MACC with merely solid overall play and depth.
OhioBobcat
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Posted: 9/12/2015 5:41 PM
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BG picks up the MAC's first win of the year vs the Power Five with a victory over the Big 10 as they blasted Maryland, 48-27!
L.C.
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Posted: 9/12/2015 10:53 PM
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Two MAC wins tonight, plus MAC defeats of Marshall and Wyoming, and I would say it is very likely that the MAC will get their 4 P5 wins this year, and the first two on my list look VERY likely. Let's hope the Bobcats chip in with a win at Minnesota.

(Hopefully both of these)
Iowa State at Toledo
BG at Purdue

Some Chance (Already have one of these)
UMass at Colorado -34 (Colorado 48, UMass 14)
BG at Maryland - MAC Win +21 (BG 48, Maryland 27)
Ball State at Northwestern
Michigan State at WMU -13 (Mich St 37, WMU 24)

Unlikely (and have one of these as well)
Kent at Illinois -49 (Illinois 52, Kent 3)
BG versus Tenn (neutral site) -29 (Tennesee 59, BG 30)
NIU at BC
Pitt at Akron -17 (Pitt 24, Akron 7)
Ohio at Minnesota
CMU at Syracuse
Toledo at Arkansas MAC Win +4 (Toledo 16, Arkansas 12)
Ball State at Texas A&M -33 (Texas A&M 56, Ball State 23)
Kent at Minnesota
UMass at Notre Dame
WMU at Ohio State
Okahoma State at CMU -11 (OK State 24, CMU 13)
Buffalo at Penn State -13 (Penn State 27, Buffalo 14)
NIU at Ohio State
Akron at Oklahoma
CMU at Michigan State
Miami at Wisconsin -58 (Wisconsin 58, Miami 0)
EMU at LSU <=== can this be uglier than 58-0? I doubt it.
Last Edited: 9/12/2015 10:55:10 PM by L.C.
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