Some people are paralyzed with fear of the unlikely, that which is not fatal....
Why do you say that it was "unlikely" that if Ohio had gone up-tempo and passing, but had failed, that Marshall would have tried to score? Had Ohio gone full up-tempo, but not gotten at least a first down or two, it is a certainty that Marshall would have gotten the ball back with plenty of time on the clock.
Would Marshall have scored? Maybe that's where you're coming from. Maybe you're saying that, "sure they would have gotten the ball back, but it's not likely that they would have scored, given the way Ohio's defense was playing". That may or may not be true. I've seen teams that are struggling offensively go into a 2-minute drill, and suddenly find new life offensively, and move the ball with precision. Had that happened, Marshall would have come out in the second half with more confidence and momentum.
Good coaching, and a high career winning percentage is a result of playing the best odds on lots of little decisions. This was a good example of playing the best odds. It didn't turn out perfectly, but it didn't turn out badly, either. Marshall's offense stayed on the sidelines. The defense rested. Marshall went into the half with no momentum or confidence, and while Ohio didn't get points, they would have had some if the kick had been good, plus they kept the momentum.
As I said, this is not a place we'll ever agree.