The difference is that we are losing guys to P-5 teams and picking them mostly up from FCS or below.. To me, it’s confirmed my assumption that we are not at all competitive in the NIL market. There’s still plenty of better players in the lesser levels, but I’m sure not expecting to get many FBS players who have played much.
One thing that will come from this is that, as players flow up and down through the various levels of football, we will all have a better picture of the talent dispersion. Obviously, most of the very best players are at the P5 level. Ohio rarely has any players drafted anymore, and that is probably true for more G5 teams. Yet, a few players do get drafted from G5, and a few are drafted from lower levels as well, so we know there is overlap in the current system.
I would expect that, as you get to lower levels, there is even more overlap. How does a G5 starter compare with a P5 starter, or with a P5 backup? When a G5 starter moves up to P5, will he be a backup, or will he be good enough to start? Similarly, when an FCS starter moves up to G5, will he be a starter, or will he provide depth?
As data, let's look at 2023 transfers. Transfers to Ohio were:
Dane Jackson, OL, from NTSU, ended up as the #2 Center
Miles Flemming, CB from Minnesota, ended up as the #2 SS
Jared Wheatley, P/K from Vandy, ended up at the #2 Punter
Kwame Sutton, DE from Austin Peay, played in 10 games, made 19 tackles
Kaci Seegars, LB from Liberty, #3 Jack, played in 10 games, Jack, 4 tackles
Tristan Cox, DT from Purdue, played in 6 games, 9 total tackles
Jack Kenneally, TE from Youngstown St, DNP, Not on roster
Ches Jackson, OL from Colorado State, no show
Walter Reynolds, S, Holy Cross, Starting FS, #3 on the team in tackles
So, we have:
No show?: 2 (Ches Jackson, Kenneally)
Starter: 1 (Reynolds Gr)
Backups: 3 (Dane Jackson Jr, Wheatley Wh, Flemming Jr)
Depth: 3 (Seegars So., Tristan Cox, Sutton Gr)
So, in total, from 9 transfers, Ohio got one starter. They also got 3 second string players, of who two have more years remaining, and might become starters, and one #3 who is only a Sophomore, and might also become a starter in time. At the other extreme, they also got two no shows, and one player that came, played very little, and who is back in the portal, and a couple of Graduate students who provided Depth, but who may be gone.
For me, one takeaway is that the players who were moving down a level were less likely to contribute. That would be Wheatley, Tristan Cox, and Miles Flemming, though Flemming has more time remaining, and may move up the chart. Next is that players who were backups moving sideways at the G5 level were likely to be backups at Ohio as well. And, finally, players who were starters at lower levels were the most likely to become starters.
Ohio seems to be behaving as if they believe this, too. The recruits they are adding so far this year are pretty much all players who were outstanding at lower levels. Hopefully that will mean a high percentage of them will be able to contribute immediately.
If the players leaving Ohio have a similar future, many of them are players who excelled at Ohio. As a result, many of them may become starters at P5 as well. On the other hand, the data above implies that those who are leaving because they are down the depth chart at Ohio may find themselves down the depth chart wherever they end up, and thus may end up having to go down a level to find new homes.