This quote inspired me:

Some here are aware I've developed my own ranking system I refer to as OPPA+- (Objective Points Per Attempt +-). This ranking system pulls in raw win, loss, and score data from a server and through a consistent methodology ranks each FBS team by the same criteria. I perform no manual manipulation of the data. There is no "eye test" override a team's ranking. And up until this week I've merely ranked teams and made no foray into projecting the final score.

But, I am not one to back away from a challenge! My score projections for Week 11 are listed below (based on data Weeks 1-10). To clarify, as with the OPPA rankings, these score projections are not manually manipulated. The projections below are the output from applying the same consistent methodology to each FBS team.

Now since this week's Vegas spreads have already been published some could speculate I'm merely piggy backing off Vegas' numbers and not creating my own projections. To demonstrate this is my projection system I will post Week 12's score projections in the following post (based on data Weeks 1-10).

#: Team's OPPA+- Ranking
( ): Projected Points Scored
[ ]: Projected OPPA Point Spread


WEEK 11

#103 Kent State (15) AT #72 Ohio (28) [-13.5]
#25 Toledo (27) AT #56 Central Michigan (18) [8.5]
#33 Bowling Green State (38) AT #53 Western Michigan (31) [7]
#64 Northern Illinois (30) AT #73 Buffalo (24) [6]
#93 Louisiana-Lafayette (32) AT #85 South Alabama (30) [1.5]
#80 Virginia Tech (27) AT #78 Georgia Tech (31) [-4]
#23 Southern California (45) AT #94 Colorado (16) [28.5]
#86 Akron (31) AT #119 Miami (OH) (15) [16]
#2 Alabama (27) AT #18 Mississippi State (19) [7.5]
#45 Appalachian State (47) AT #110 Idaho (19) [28]
#36 Arkansas (24) AT #7 Louisiana State (34) [-10.5]
#41 Arkansas State (50) AT #127 Louisiana-Monroe (21) [30]
#14 Brigham Young (27) AT #69 Missouri (17) [10.5]
#1 Clemson (40) AT #91 Syracuse (19) [21]
#4 Florida (35) AT #83 South Carolina (16) [19]
#97 Florida International (22) AT #47 Marshall (32) [-10]
#116 Fresno State (26) AT #117 Hawaii (30) [-4.5]
#42 Georgia (24) AT #35 Auburn (26) [-2.5]
#57 Georgia Southern (38) AT #106 Troy (24) [14.5]
#113 Georgia State (28) AT #111 Texas State (28) [0]
#124 Kansas (18) AT #12 Texas Christian (59) [-40.5]
#77 Kansas State (28) AT #63 Texas Tech (35) [-7]
#62 Kentucky (23) AT #81 Vanderbilt (19) [3.5]
#95 Maryland (20) AT #10 Michigan State (36) [-16]
#112 Massachusetts (24) AT #126 Eastern Michigan (20) [3.5]
#19 Memphis (33) AT #22 Houston (30) [3]
#40 Miami (FL) (19) AT #21 North Carolina (41) [-22.5]
#20 Michigan (35) AT #61 Indiana (19) [15.5]
#74 Middle Tennessee State (40) AT #109 Florida Atlantic (22) [18.5]
#60 Minnesota (16) AT #8 Iowa (32) [-16]
#49 Nebraska (39) AT #88 Rutgers (26) [13]
#101 Nevada-Las Vegas (27) AT #98 Colorado State (28) [-1]
#92 New Mexico (10) AT #44 Boise State (36) [-26.5]
#46 North Carolina State (26) AT #30 Florida State (33) [-7]
#123 North Texas (21) AT #31 Tennessee (52) [-31.5]
#6 Ohio State (37) AT #59 Illinois (10) [27.5]
#17 Oklahoma (39) AT #13 Baylor (41) [-2]
#5 Oklahoma State (47) AT #89 Iowa State (21) [26]
#27 Oregon (27) AT #16 Stanford (39) [-12]
#108 Oregon State (18) AT #37 California (46) [-27.5]
#32 Pittsburgh (31) AT #52 Duke (24) [7]
#102 Purdue (17) AT #15 Northwestern (27) [-10]
#90 San Jose State (27) AT #84 Nevada (27) [-0.5]
#120 Southern Methodist (20) AT #9 Navy (46) [-27]
#68 Southern Mississippi (39) AT #96 Rice (23) [16]
#29 Temple (29) AT #65 South Florida (18) [11]
#66 Texas (21) AT #58 West Virginia (33) [-11.5]
#100 Texas-El Paso (30) AT #104 Old Dominion (31) [-1]
#118 Texas-San Antonio (29) AT #121 Charlotte (23) [6]
#115 Tulane (28) AT #122 Army (34) [-6]
#79 Tulsa (30) AT #54 Cincinnati (41) [-11]
#11 Utah (44) AT #70 Arizona (21) [23.5]
#75 Utah State (27) AT #71 Air Force (27) [0]
#82 Virginia (22) AT #50 Louisville (29) [-7]
#99 Wake Forest (20) AT #3 Notre Dame (45) [-24.5]
#51 Washington (33) AT #67 Arizona State (22) [10.5]
#48 Washington State (33) AT #28 UCLA (35) [-2.5]
#125 Wyoming (12) AT #55 San Diego State (34) [-22.5]

Looks pretty good! Here's one that I didn't understand:
#59 Illinois (25) AT #60 Minnesota (22) [3]

I'm not saying it's a bad prediction (Minn+3 seems about right) but the spread doesn't seem to jive with the rankings. I would expect the #60 team playing at home to be favored over the #59 team...

I bet 4 game parley each week. Quick look (so far - not done comparing) at your odds vs Vegas shows (so far) 5 games with decent difference (7+)
VA/Louisville - Vegas 14 - you 7 (though Louisville at home)
Wash/AZ - Vegas 3 - you 10 (without home field bump for AZ)
Miami/NC ST - Vegas 12.5 - you 22.5 (without home field bump for NC)
OK St/Iowa St - Vegas 14 - you 26
Utah/AZ - Vegas 6 - You 23.5

I'll see if they are on the sheet. See what happens.

I'll post the differences between Vegas and the OPPA spread on my lunch break. I believe there are 20 games where I'm 7 or more points different than Vegas this week. And that's exactly where I start to look for spread mismatches.

To clarify, the spreads listed above for OPPA and Vegas are still a 50-50 proposition.

Betting one way or the other when OPPA and Vegas are most different isn't going to help your 50-50 odds much either.

I posted the OPPA comparison to Vegas for cc-cat just so he didn't spend time looking for information I already had.

This is just one part of the game of trying to beat the spread. There are a number of additional factors not covered here that I use to eliminate games from contention (including games that are 7 or more points different than Vegas).

My objective was to demonstrate to BTC, if no one else, that I am capable of producing automated spreads that pass the "eye test" of the general public. On a quantifiable basis, the OPPA spread relates as well as (or better than) Vegas to the final end of game score margin outside of the first 4-5 weeks of the season. Last week for example, the OPPA spread was on average 280% different than the final margin of all games. Vegas was on average 640% different than the final margin of all games.

Long story short, piss off, BTC.

P.S.

My biggest hint that I've found sifting through all this data the past couple years is that the winner (not necessarily the favorite) of one-possession spread games cover the Vegas spread >90% of the time. This is important because the effect of the spread on the odds in this bracket is nearly neutralized. In the one-possession spread range the choice is most nearly on who you think will win, not who you think will win AND whether or not they will cover.