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Topic: Group of Five New Year's Six Bowl Tracker
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GoCats105
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Posted: 10/5/2015 11:03 AM
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Since someone brought this up in another thread, I thought I would start tracking the teams in line for this.

*As of games played through November 21st. Bowling Green has been eliminated following their loss to rival Toledo. Memphis has been eliminated following their loss to Temple.

AAC
Temple (9-2): The Owls got a big W over Memphis, but they can't relax because they've got a surprisingly tough game against surging UConn to close out. If they lose and USF wins, the Bulls take the East Division.

Navy (9-1): The Midshipmen keep chugging along and thanks to UConn, they are now in sole possession of first place in the West. They travel to Houston next week to decide the division champ.

Houston (10-1): The Cougars were stunned on the road at UConn and now have to make up ground by beating Navy next week, which is no small task.

MAC

Toledo (9-1): The Rockets beat BG like a drum again and put themselves in position for a MAC West title if they get a break. They need NIU to lose its final game to Ohio.

EDIT: BYU taken out of the running since they are not included in the G5.
Last Edited: 11/23/2015 7:13:20 AM by GoCats105
OUcats82
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Posted: 10/5/2015 11:58 AM
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If their profiles are strong enough to justify inclusion, I think that Navy and/or BYU would be highly attractive teams, especially BYU, since they both have fairly large fan bases across the country-kind of like Notre Dame, and would sell a good amount of tickets-especially for a marquee bowl game. A Toledo or Boise State don't have large fan bases outside of their greater metro areas I would think.

That being said I don't think the Middies or Cougars will either win enough games to be first in line.
Last Edited: 10/5/2015 11:58:44 AM by OUcats82
GoCats105
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Posted: 10/5/2015 12:49 PM
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I really like Temple's chances. Their defense should be able to slow down Notre Dame. I'm not sure their offense is going to do much against them though.

BYU is an interesting case. You could argue they had/have the toughest schedule in the country, then add on to that the injuries to starters they've faced. You have to give them credit if they go 10-2 I would think.

Eastern Michigan scoring quite a few points on LSU has to excite Brandon Doughty and WKU too.
C Money
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Posted: 10/5/2015 1:11 PM
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OUcats82 wrote:expand_more
If their profiles are strong enough to justify inclusion, I think that Navy and/or BYU would be highly attractive teams, especially BYU, since they both have fairly large fan bases across the country-kind of like Notre Dame, and would sell a good amount of tickets-especially for a marquee bowl game. A Toledo or Boise State don't have large fan bases outside of their greater metro areas I would think.

That being said I don't think the Middies or Cougars will either win enough games to be first in line.

BYU isn't eligible for the G5 slot because they are independent. They would have to qualify for the at-large slot to get in.
mf279801
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Posted: 10/5/2015 1:15 PM
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BYU does would NOT qualify for the "Group of 5 guarantee". That rule provision provides a spot in a New Year's 6 bowl to the best ranked/regarded CONFERENCE CHAMPION from a Group of 5 Conference. BYU is not in a Group of 5 conference, ergo they cannot be a G5 champion. That doesn't preclude them from being selected as an at-large/wild card, but they are not a part of the G5 access rule.

Edit: Ninja'ed
Last Edited: 10/5/2015 1:15:57 PM by mf279801
L.C.
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Posted: 10/5/2015 1:26 PM
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For what it's worth, per TeamRankings, the chances of each of these teams winning out is:
Boise State (4-1): 55.5%
Toledo (4-0): 27.2%
Appalachian State (3-1): 26.7%
BYU (3-2): 18.8%
Houston (4-0): 16.3%
Western Kentucky (4-1): 11.3%
Temple (4-0): 8.9%
Bowling Green (3-2): 4.6%
Ohio (4-1): 3.9%
Navy (4-0): 3.4%
Marshall (4-1): 3.3%
Georgia Southern (4-1): 3.3%
Memphis (5-0): 2.2%

When you look at it this way, you get a pretty good idea of who is the most likely to be there.
OUcats82
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Posted: 10/5/2015 1:59 PM
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C Money wrote:expand_more
If their profiles are strong enough to justify inclusion, I think that Navy and/or BYU would be highly attractive teams, especially BYU, since they both have fairly large fan bases across the country-kind of like Notre Dame, and would sell a good amount of tickets-especially for a marquee bowl game. A Toledo or Boise State don't have large fan bases outside of their greater metro areas I would think.

That being said I don't think the Middies or Cougars will either win enough games to be first in line.

BYU isn't eligible for the G5 slot because they are independent. They would have to qualify for the at-large slot to get in.
Thanks for the correction!
GoCats105
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Posted: 10/5/2015 3:21 PM
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C Money wrote:expand_more
If their profiles are strong enough to justify inclusion, I think that Navy and/or BYU would be highly attractive teams, especially BYU, since they both have fairly large fan bases across the country-kind of like Notre Dame, and would sell a good amount of tickets-especially for a marquee bowl game. A Toledo or Boise State don't have large fan bases outside of their greater metro areas I would think.

That being said I don't think the Middies or Cougars will either win enough games to be first in line.

BYU isn't eligible for the G5 slot because they are independent. They would have to qualify for the at-large slot to get in.
Really? I guess I missed that one. Do they have the same type of exception or preferetial treatment that Notre Dame gets in this case? I would doubt it. And if not, I would be looking to join a conference ASAP if I were them.
GoCats105
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Posted: 10/5/2015 3:25 PM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
For what it's worth, per TeamRankings, the chances of each of these teams winning out is:
Boise State (4-1): 55.5%
Toledo (4-0): 27.2%
Appalachian State (3-1): 26.7%
BYU (3-2): 18.8%
Houston (4-0): 16.3%
Western Kentucky (4-1): 11.3%
Temple (4-0): 8.9%
Bowling Green (3-2): 4.6%
Ohio (4-1): 3.9%
Navy (4-0): 3.4%
Marshall (4-1): 3.3%
Georgia Southern (4-1): 3.3%
Memphis (5-0): 2.2%

When you look at it this way, you get a pretty good idea of who is the most likely to be there.
I'm really excited for Appalachian State. I can't believe the percentage is that high. It would be pretty cool to see them win out and possibly make the NY6 in their first bowl eligible season. The problem is, I don't think the Sun Belt gets the respect it deserves. The top half of that league is solid now with Georgia Southern, Louisiana, Arkansas State and Appy State.
C Money
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Posted: 10/5/2015 4:02 PM
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GoCats105 wrote:expand_more
If their profiles are strong enough to justify inclusion, I think that Navy and/or BYU would be highly attractive teams, especially BYU, since they both have fairly large fan bases across the country-kind of like Notre Dame, and would sell a good amount of tickets-especially for a marquee bowl game. A Toledo or Boise State don't have large fan bases outside of their greater metro areas I would think.

That being said I don't think the Middies or Cougars will either win enough games to be first in line.

BYU isn't eligible for the G5 slot because they are independent. They would have to qualify for the at-large slot to get in.
Really? I guess I missed that one. Do they have the same type of exception or preferetial treatment that Notre Dame gets in this case? I would doubt it. And if not, I would be looking to join a conference ASAP if I were them.
Nope, I think part of Notre Dame's deal with the ACC is that Notre Dame counts as an ACC school for NY6 purposes. Either that, or Notre Dame is just different. I know they had a special rule in place for the BCS, and that may have carried over to the playoff format regardless of their ACC quasi-affiliation.

But to answer the question, Notre Dame and BYU are not treated the same for NY6 purposes.
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Posted: 10/5/2015 4:06 PM
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GoCats105 wrote:expand_more
If their profiles are strong enough to justify inclusion, I think that Navy and/or BYU would be highly attractive teams, especially BYU, since they both have fairly large fan bases across the country-kind of like Notre Dame, and would sell a good amount of tickets-especially for a marquee bowl game. A Toledo or Boise State don't have large fan bases outside of their greater metro areas I would think.

That being said I don't think the Middies or Cougars will either win enough games to be first in line.

BYU isn't eligible for the G5 slot because they are independent. They would have to qualify for the at-large slot to get in.
Really? I guess I missed that one. Do they have the same type of exception or preferetial treatment that Notre Dame gets in this case? I would doubt it. And if not, I would be looking to join a conference ASAP if I were them.
Notre Dame has no de jure exemption/exception/preferential treatment either. Their only GUARANTEED path into a New Years-6 bowl is a top-4 selection committee ranking (same as for all non-power5 FBS teams, and all non-conference champions from the power5), or otherwise an at-large selection to one of the 6 truely at-large bowl billets (6 "New Year's 6" bowls = 12 billets -5 Power5 conference champions -1 Group-of-5 meta-champion = 6 at-large slots). Notre Dame does enjoy a de facto advantage (history, generally a pretty strong strength of schedule).

Edit: Damnit C Money, ninja'ed me again
Last Edited: 10/5/2015 4:06:59 PM by mf279801
L.C.
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Posted: 10/5/2015 4:09 PM
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GoCats105 wrote:expand_more
I'm really excited for Appalachian State. I can't believe the percentage is that high. ...

The percentages reflect who they have left, and whether the games are at home or on the road. I'm guessing that they have their hardest games at home. By contrast Ohio's percentages is low because of the way the schedule lines up, with some of their hardest games on the road, and easier ones at home.
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Posted: 10/16/2015 11:08 PM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
For what it's worth, per TeamRankings, the chances of each of these teams winning out is:
Boise State (4-1): 55.5%
Toledo (4-0): 27.2%
Appalachian State (3-1): 26.7%
BYU (3-2): 18.8%
Houston (4-0): 16.3%
Western Kentucky (4-1): 11.3%
Temple (4-0): 8.9%
Bowling Green (3-2): 4.6%
Ohio (4-1): 3.9%
Navy (4-0): 3.4%
Marshall (4-1): 3.3%
Georgia Southern (4-1): 3.3%
Memphis (5-0): 2.2%

When you look at it this way, you get a pretty good idea of who is the most likely to be there.
Boise down 45-10 at the half to Utah State.
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Posted: 10/16/2015 11:55 PM
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The Optimist wrote:expand_more
For what it's worth, per TeamRankings, the chances of each of these teams winning out is:
Boise State (4-1): 55.5%
Toledo (4-0): 27.2%
Appalachian State (3-1): 26.7%
BYU (3-2): 18.8%
Houston (4-0): 16.3%
Western Kentucky (4-1): 11.3%
Temple (4-0): 8.9%
Bowling Green (3-2): 4.6%
Ohio (4-1): 3.9%
Navy (4-0): 3.4%
Marshall (4-1): 3.3%
Georgia Southern (4-1): 3.3%
Memphis (5-0): 2.2%

When you look at it this way, you get a pretty good idea of who is the most likely to be there.

19 minutes left and 45-10. They are toast.

Boise down 45-10 at the half to Utah State.
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Posted: 10/17/2015 8:07 AM
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52-26 win by Utah State puts Toledo in the drivers seat, at least for now.
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Posted: 10/17/2015 8:51 AM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
52-26 win by Utah State puts Toledo in the drivers seat, at least for now.
Yeah, an unbeaten team in the American will pass them. If its a Navy or a Memphis or some American team that played a really tough ooc game Toledo could still lose out to a once beaten American team.

Which Ohio and Toledo are going 12-1 anyway, right?
Last Edited: 10/17/2015 8:52:30 AM by Victory
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Posted: 10/17/2015 10:19 AM
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Victory wrote:expand_more
52-26 win by Utah State puts Toledo in the drivers seat, at least for now.
Yeah, an unbeaten team in the American will pass them. If its a Navy or a Memphis or some American team that played a really tough ooc game Toledo could still lose out to a once beaten American team.

Which Ohio and Toledo are going 12-1 anyway, right?
I relish the opportunity for OHIO to be facing an unbeaten Toledo in the MACC with an opportunity to lose a couple million dollars by beating the Rockets.
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Posted: 10/17/2015 2:36 PM
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Time to delete lock this thread.
The Optimist
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Posted: 10/17/2015 4:11 PM
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Alan Swank wrote:expand_more
Time to delete lock this thread.
I'm interested in following this for Toledo.
GoCats105
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Posted: 10/19/2015 9:57 AM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
52-26 win by Utah State puts Toledo in the drivers seat, at least for now.
I'll update the thread later, but I think you're probably right for now. If Temple beats Notre Dame, they'll most likely move to the top spot.

This is gonna get pretty interesting actually. Georgia Southern has been an absolute tear since they lost to WVU. If they beat Georgia, you could make the argument that they might belong there too.
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Posted: 10/19/2015 12:55 PM
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How about Memphis? Didn't they jump up one spot ahead of Toledo?
GoCats105
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Posted: 10/19/2015 1:00 PM
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The Optimist wrote:expand_more
How about Memphis? Didn't they jump up one spot ahead of Toledo?
Yeah they did in the actual rankings. I'm guessing they're just basing that off of Ole Miss being better than Arkansas/Iowa State.

I'm interested to see how Memphis responds after this. They've got some tough upcoming conferences games.
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Posted: 10/21/2015 12:41 PM
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The AAC West is really good this year with Memphis, Houston and now Navy joining the conference. It's ironic for Navy, though, as they agreed to join the West instead of the more geographic-logical East because of the level of the perceived competition there (Cincy, ECU, UCF). Even the team that is leading the east is a surprise (Temple).

Houston, Memphis and Navy have yet to play each other, though. Houston has a crossover with UC remaining, and Memphis with Temple (who also has a game with Notre Dame). So those four teams from the AAC will most likely all end up with a couple of losses each. If one does remain undefeated they will ranked fairly high.
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Posted: 11/16/2015 7:33 AM
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Pretty crazy weekend for the Group of Five. Memphis and Houston had a great game go down to the wire which Houston won after coming back from a 20 point deficit twice, with a backup QB.

Boise State lost to New Mexico, all but ending their NY6 hopes.

Temple was upset on the road at South Florida.

Toledo and BG play tomorrow night. Winner of that one is right back in the thick of this race I think.
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Posted: 11/16/2015 8:59 AM
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GoCats105 wrote:expand_more
Pretty crazy weekend for the Group of Five. Memphis and Houston had a great game go down to the wire which Houston won after coming back from a 20 point deficit twice, with a backup QB.
That was the best game of the weekend, IMO, in a weekend full of great games. Oregon/Stanford was entertaining, and Indiana/Michigan was crazy at the end, but that Memphis/Houston game was great, fun-to-watch football.
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