Bobcat Attack - Ohio Football - 2015 Bowl Projections

Ohio Football Topic

Topic: 2015 Bowl Projections

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MariettaCatFanatic

9/14/2015 12:50 PM

Used to do this on a weekly basis, so with the 2-0 start..let's fire it up again.

After Week 13:

ESPN: Bahamas Bowl vs. MTSU
Potato Bowl (Boise, ID) vs. Nevada
http://espn.go.com/ncf/story/_/id/14254993/college-footba...

SB Nation: Boca Raton Bowl vs. Cincinnati
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/11/29/98135...

CBS: Boca Raton Bowl vs. Temple
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

College Sports Madness: Bahamas Bowl vs. MTSU
http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/football/bowl-project...

Orlando Sentinel: Potato Bowl vs. Utah St.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/college/college-gri...

Campus Insiders: Camellia Bowl vs. Georgia Southern
http://campusinsiders.com/news/2015-2016-college-football...

Last Edited: 11/30/2015 9:09:28 AM by MariettaCatFanatic

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TWT

9/14/2015 10:51 PM

If a MAC school starts 3-0 all they will have to do is go 3-5 in MAC play to be bowl eligible. A bowl is almost assured at this point. MAC Championship projections is what I want to see right now.

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L.C.

9/14/2015 11:14 PM

Uncle Wes wrote:expand_more

If a MAC school starts 3-0 all they will have to do is go 3-5 in MAC play to be bowl eligible. A bowl is almost assured at this point. MAC Championship projections is what I want to see right now.

You will find those here:
http://tinyurl.com/qfwa8ob
They currently project Toledo over Ohio in the Championship. The odds of winning the championship, per them are:
Toledo: 38.4%
Ohio: 15.0%
NIU: 12.3%
BG: 11.3%
Buffalo: 6.1%
CMU: 4.2%
WMU: 4.1%
Akron: 3.4%
Ball St:3.2%
All others combined: 2.0%
Ohio was about 5.5% to begin the season, and 10.8% last week, so the numbers change every week depending on how everyone is doing.

They also project Ohio with a 90.8% chance of being bowl eligible, so they would agree with your statement that it is "almost assured".

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OUbobcat9092

9/20/2015 9:39 AM

It would be awesome to have the Basketball team play in the Virgin Islands, and the Football team play in the Bahamas!

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L.C.

10/4/2015 10:45 AM

L.C. wrote:expand_more

Uncle Wes wrote:expand_more

... MAC Championship projections is what I want to see right now.

You will find those here:
http://tinyurl.com/qfwa8ob ...

Revised percentages after the first week of MACtion:
Toledo - 47.8% chance of MACC, 64.3% chances of MAC West, 9.9 wins
CMU - 8.9% chance of MACC, 17.6% chance of MAC West, 6.0 wins
NIU - 7.6% chance of MACC, 12.2% chance of MAC West, 7.1 wins

BG - 14.5% chance of MACC, 39.4% chance of MAC East, 7.3 wins
Ohio - 11.8% chance of MACC, 35.4% chance of MAC East, 8.4 wins
Akron - 3.7% chance of MACC, 12.3% chance of MAC East, 6.5 wins

I note that only 5 MAC teams are projected as likely to end with a winning record, Toledo, Ohio, BG, NIU, and Akron. The OOC schedules were just not that favorable this year, and the MAC had too many close losses, and not enough where they pulled out wins.

It looks like Toledo is wearing the eyepatch now.

Last Edited: 10/4/2015 10:46:38 AM by L.C.

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Victory

10/6/2015 11:00 AM

L.C. wrote:expand_more

I note that only 5 MAC teams are projected as likely to end with a winning record, Toledo, Ohio, BG, NIU, and Akron. The OOC schedules were just not that favorable this year, and the MAC had too many close losses, and not enough where they pulled out wins.

It does give CMU and Buffalo (barely) a better than 50/50 chance to be bowl eligible. 7/13 would be pretty typical. FCS wins inflates the number of .500 FBS teams. Toledo is a lock and Ohio is better than 98%.

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Toast

10/6/2015 2:23 PM

Hopefully they'll get a bowl in AL or FL.

OUbobcat9092 wrote:expand_more

It would be awesome to have the Basketball team play in the Virgin Islands, and the Football team play in the Bahamas!

Last Edited: 10/6/2015 2:31:55 PM by Toast

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Toast

10/6/2015 2:35 PM

Last Edited: 10/6/2015 2:38:33 PM by Toast

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L.C.

10/11/2015 6:58 PM

L.C. wrote:expand_more

http://tinyurl.com/qfwa8ob
Revised percentages after the first week of MACtion:
Toledo - 47.8% chance of MACC, 64.3% chances of MAC West, 9.9 wins
CMU - 8.9% chance of MACC, 17.6% chance of MAC West, 6.0 wins
NIU - 7.6% chance of MACC, 12.2% chance of MAC West, 7.1 wins

BG - 14.5% chance of MACC, 39.4% chance of MAC East, 7.3 wins
Ohio - 11.8% chance of MACC, 35.4% chance of MAC East, 8.4 wins
Akron - 3.7% chance of MACC, 12.3% chance of MAC East, 6.5 wins

There was not much change this week. CMU losing to WMU cost them about 4.5% chance, which was split between the contenders:
Toledo - 49.8% chance of MACC +2.0%
NIU - 8.6% chance of MACC +1.0%
CMU - 4.5 chance of MACC -4.4%

BG - 15.9% chance of MACC +1.4%
Ohio - 12.9% chance of MACC +1.1%
Akron - 3.8% chance of MACC +.1%

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Victory

10/11/2015 7:33 PM

From the projections on teamrankings all bowl eligible teams may get a bowl. Its possible that a 5-7 team or two may have to go.

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Victory

10/11/2015 7:50 PM

Also interesting from teamrankings for conference championships.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/projections/standings /

AAC: Temple over Houston
ACC: Clemson over Duke (yes, Duke again?)
Big XII: Baylor
Big Ten: Michigan over Wisconsin
CUSA: Western Kentucky over Louisiana Tech

MAC: Toledo over Ohio
Well, this is the one we care most about but the in doubt one. The site gives us 5.7 average MAC wins to BGSU's 5.6. It gives BG a slightly better chance to win the MAC. I suspect rather than giving BG a much better odds of beating Toledo in the MACC it has lots scenarios where we end up tied and BGSU wins over 50% of those since home field will make them a small favorite in that game hand give them H2H in over 50% of tiebreaker scenarios. Also, they play Toledo and we don't which will drag down their average wins but have a lesser effect on all possible MAC scenarios than other losses. It doesn't explicitly rate divisional chances. It may give BG a slightly better chance to win the East if we could see that.

MWC: Boise State over San Diego State
Pac 12: Stanford over Utah (I'm surprised their computers picked Stanford)
SEC: Florida over Alabama
Sun Belt: Appalachian State

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L.C.

10/11/2015 8:00 PM

Victory wrote:expand_more

.... It doesn't explicitly rate divisional chances. It may give BG a slightly better chance to win the East if we could see that.
...

Actually it does. They are on the individual team projection pages.
Chances of winning the East:
BG 43.0%
Ohio 37.6%
Akron 12.9%
Buffalo 4.5%
Kent 1.1%
UMass 0.9%
Miami 0.0%

Doing the math, if BG wins the East, they give BG a 37.0% chance of beating Toledo, whereas if Ohio wins the East, they give Ohio a 34.3% change of beating Toledo.

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The Optimist

10/12/2015 8:58 AM

MariettaCatFanatic wrote:expand_more

Used to do this on a weekly basis, so with the 2-0 start..let's fire it up again.

After Week 6:

ESPN: Camellia Bowl (Montgomery, AL) vs. Georgia Southern
Boca Raton Bowl vs. Cincinnati
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/13859863/c...

SB Nation: Bahamas Bowl vs. Old Dominion
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/10/11/94967...

CBS: Poinsettia (San Diego) vs. Utah State
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

College Sports Madness: Cactus Bowl (Tempe) vs. Washington
http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/football/bowl-project...

Starting to get a bit more prestigious.

I don't know what the official scale for bowl game prestige is, but the Poinsettia & Cactus bowls feel like that next tier up from what we've been seeing this far.

Just keep winning!

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MariettaCatFanatic

10/12/2015 9:04 AM

The Optimist wrote:expand_more

MariettaCatFanatic wrote:expand_more

It's a double edged sword here as we have seen in the past...the MAC has a number of tie-ins that we would consider less prestigious that select the best teams out of the conference. The fringe MAC teams that are 7-5 or 6-6 usually end up filling openings that larger conferences do not...bowls that are generally against better teams and in better locations.

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The Optimist

10/12/2015 9:15 AM

MariettaCatFanatic wrote:expand_more

The Optimist wrote:expand_more

MariettaCatFanatic wrote:expand_more

Very true. We've seen that ourselves the last decade.

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colobobcat66

10/26/2015 9:47 AM

Hard to believe that we will play in a bowl game even if we win 6 games. Just like last year.

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Bobcat1998

10/26/2015 10:51 AM

Hard to believe that we will be 6-6. I think we should be favored to beat Balls but other than them I can't imagine us winning another game so if we're upset by the Cards we are 5-7. We certainly can't beat BG or Northern with the state we're in and Kent State is playing pretty well right now.

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Deciduous Forest Cat

10/26/2015 1:28 PM

Bobcat1998 wrote:expand_more

I don't see us as a favorite in any of our last games. who feels comfortable against ball state, who played Northwestern very tight and nearly knocked off CMU? They're losing too, but they're competitive.

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L.C.

10/26/2015 1:37 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-oSFYxDGKy8

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OUcats82

11/2/2015 11:58 AM

L.C. wrote:expand_more

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-oSFYxDGKy8

Or this......

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4jGSvxCRp4

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GoCats105

11/23/2015 9:46 AM

NCAA is meeting in case there aren't enough bowl teams to fill the bowl slots. This is pathetic.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/dennis-do...

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UpSan Bobcat

11/23/2015 10:40 AM

That should have had this figured out before now. This isn't the first time there was a question if this could happen and now there are even more games, so they had to know this was a possibility.

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GoCats105

11/23/2015 11:14 AM

UpSan Bobcat wrote:expand_more

That should have had this figured out before now. This isn't the first time there was a question if this could happen and now there are even more games, so they had to know this was a possibility.

It shouldn't even be a possibility. If you have a losing record you shouldn't be rewarded with bowl games and extra practices. Too many bowl games.

Last Edited: 11/23/2015 11:14:26 AM by GoCats105

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Victory

11/23/2015 11:26 AM

They have rules on this already but they aren't clear. It says the 5-7 teams with grad rates in the top 5 are eligible. To me this implies that if none on the top 5 APR have exactly 5 wins then APR itself is the next tiebreaker.

I'll bet they shift gears and just let the bowls take whatever 5 win teams that they want as long as all the 6 win teams get picked somewhere.

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OhioStunter

11/23/2015 1:12 PM

OSU vs. Houston in the Fiesta Bowl? Watch C-bus implode.

CBS: Boca Raton Bowl vs. Temple
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions