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Topic: Bowl picture
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OUbobcat9092
11/11/2015 10:39 AM
71 BOBCAT wrote:expand_more
Let's be realistic, no MAC team will receive a bowl bid with a 6-6 record. You can take that to the bank.
7-5 will be the minimum to make it.
I think you will see that EVERY team that has a 6-6 record or better will be offered a bowl slot
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UpSan Bobcat
11/11/2015 10:45 AM
71 BOBCAT wrote:expand_more
Let's be realistic, no MAC team will receive a bowl bid with a 6-6 record. You can take that to the bank.
7-5 will be the minimum to make it.
With the MAC in on 5 bowls and it appears that 4 teams are a lock that leaves 1 slot open.
After last night, CMU has put themselves in a must win position for their last 2 games. They are on the road but face teams with loosing records.
Ohio has certainly helped itself and now, IMHO, need only win 1 in their last 2 to get to that 7 win total. We are home next week against BS, another team with a loosing record.
Tonight BU plays @ home against NIU. A loss puts them in the same position as CMU,
and their last 2 games, 1 home & 1 away are against teams with loosing records.
There could certainly be 2 or more teams with a 7-5 record at which time I believe the decision will come down to other factors that will come into play. If so I also believe Ohio has the advantage.



GO BOBCATS
Central Michigan got a bowl in 2012 with a 6-6 record.

Most people who evaluate those kinds of things insist every 6-6 team in the country will get a bowl game this year. There are so many bowls now, no 6-6 team is going to get shut out.
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71 BOBCAT
11/11/2015 10:51 AM
To OUbobcat9091 & UPSAN Bobcat.........
You both could be right this year, however, I do not think it will happen. If I am wrong I will note it at the appropriate time.





GO BOBCATS
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OhioCatFan
11/11/2015 11:30 AM
Given recent commentary on this board, I thought the following commentary on the CFP rankings was interesting:

"The committee still likes Baylor more [than Okie State], even though the Bears are yet to beat a team with a winning record."
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L.C.
11/11/2015 11:47 AM
5 MAC teams have 6 wins already, and three more have a good chance of getting there. Here is the current projections from TeamRankings:
BG 9.6 wins (8 currently, remaining Toledo, @Ball St)
Toledo 9.0 wins (8 currently, remaining @BG, WMU)
N. Illinois 8.5 wins (7 currently, remaining WMU, Ohio)
Ohio 6.9 wins (6 currently, remaining Ball St, @NIU)
CMU 6.8 wins (5 currently, remaining @Kent, EMU)
WMU 6.6 wins (6 currently, remaining @NIU, @Toledo)
Buffalo 6.2 wins (5 currently, @Akron, UMass)
Akron 6.2 wins (4 currently, @Miami, Buffalo, Kent)

Can the MAC place 8 teams in bowls? Would that be a record?

It seems certain that we will find out the answer the to the eternal question that, no doubt, millions of fans across the country are dying to know, "Can a 6-6 MAC team get a bowl invitation?".

Edit - Updated 11/12
Last Edited: 11/12/2015 10:37:23 AM by L.C.
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A-townBound
11/11/2015 6:41 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
It seems certain that we will find out the answer the to the eternal question that, no doubt, millions of fans across the country are dying to know, "Can a 6-6 MAC team get a bowl invitation?".
Didn't Central Michigan get an invite a couple of years ago with a 6-6 record?
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OhioCatFan
11/11/2015 6:47 PM
A-townBound wrote:expand_more
It seems certain that we will find out the answer the to the eternal question that, no doubt, millions of fans across the country are dying to know, "Can a 6-6 MAC team get a bowl invitation?".
Didn't Central Michigan get an invite a couple of years ago with a 6-6 record?
Yes
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71 BOBCAT
11/12/2015 9:54 AM
Here are my thoughts on the MAC only bowl picture after this weeks games;
3 TEAMS are in, TU, BG, & NIU. 2 spots remain for the 4 teams in contention.
Buffalo lost this week and is now 5-5 with their next game @ Akron and they finish @ home against UMASS.
Central Michigan lost and is now 5-5 with their next game @ Kent and they finish @ EMU.
Ohio WINS and is now 6-4 with their next game @ home against BSU and they finish @ NIU.
Western Michigan lost and is now 6-4 with their next 2 games @ NIU & @ TU. This team clearly has the most difficult remaining schedule of all the teams still in the hunt for the last 2 spots.

Summary:
I believe that a MAC team will need 7 wins to receive a bowl bid, and at least 2 teams will reach this mark. If 2 teams reach this mark no team, IMHO, with 6 wins will get in.
Clearly both Ohio and CMU need just 1 win in their last 2 games to secure a bid. CMU & BU at best can get to 7 wins, while WMU & Ohio could get to 8 wins.
BU & CMU both will need to win their last 2 games. Even though they are each playing teams with loosing records they each are on the road for 1 of these games.
While it is possible that there could be a 4 way W-L record tie at 7-5 I would tend to doubt this to be the outcome. If I am wrong and there are 4 teams @ 7-5 this is my projected bowl bid winners.
WMU will get a bowl bid based on their play and teams they beat and how the won.
Ohio would be my second choice to secure a bowl bid. We have a better story, famous coach and a fan base that travels better than other teams.



GO BOBCATS
Last Edited: 11/12/2015 9:57:43 AM by 71 BOBCAT
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L.C.
11/12/2015 10:49 AM
I agree that BG, Toledo, and NIU are safely in. Beyond those, the most likely outcome:
Ohio beats Ball State and loses to NIU, they get to 7-5.
CMU Beats Kent and EMU, they get to 7-5

That gets 5 teams to 7 wins. Then I think Buffalo and Akron will both win all their remaining games, except the one against each other. Whoever wins that game will be 7-5, and the loser will be 6-6. That gets 6 teams to 7-5, and another one is 6-6.

The mystery team is WMU. They are 6-6, but have two very tough road games left, @NIU, and @Toledo. They could end up anywhere between 6-6 and 8-4.

Conclusion: It's seems likely that the MAC will have at least 6 teams that have 7 or more wins, and they could have 7. It also seems likely that 8 teams could have 6 wins, though Kent, UMass, EMU or Miami could disrupt with some upset wins.

Personally, I'm hoping that Ohio can get to 8-4, but first things, first, they have to beat Ball State.
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C Money
11/12/2015 10:52 AM
71 BOBCAT wrote:expand_more
Here are my thoughts on the MAC only bowl picture after this weeks games....
GO BOBCATS
I just did a similar analysis, but FBS-wide, and NOT considering the playoffs or the access bowl at-large spots. Here's what I've got (Number in parens = net change on bowl slots):

AAC: Probably one more team eligible than bowl slots. (-1)
ACC: Probably one more bowl slot than eligible teams. (+1)
B1G: Probably two more bowl slots than eligible teams. (+2)
Big 12: Protbably one more bowl slots than eligible teams (+1)
CUSA: Probably an equal number of bowl slots and eligible teams (0)
Indies: Probably an equal number of bowl slots and eligible teams with Army's slot now a MAC slot (0)
MAC: Probably two more eligible teams than bowl slots (I have Buff, Central, and Kron all getting eligible) (-2)
MWC: Probably two more eligible teams than bowl slots (-2)
Pac12: Probably two more eligible teams than bowl slots (-2)
SEC: Probably an equal number of bowl slots and eligible teams (0)
SBC: Probably an equal number of bowl slots and eligible teams (0)

That is 77 eligible teams for 74 slots BEFORE CONSIDERING THE AT LARGE SPOTS OR THE PLAYOFFS. Figure any eligible P5 team gets a bid before a MAC school, but that would just be the Pac 12 and it is just two schools. The AAC bubble teams (Cincy, Tulsa, USF, and Uconn) also probably get bids ahead of us. But we're looking at a playoff of probably an ACC school (Clemson), a B1G school (osu or Iowa), an SEC school (Bama probably), and a Big 12 school (Baylor or OkieSt) or Notre Dame, plus probably an AAC school in the access bowl (Houston, Memphis, or Navy), plus one other P5 school (osu or Notre Dame if not in the playoff, or a Pac 12 or a Big 12 team if they are in the playoff) as an at-large. So our competition is with the bubble MWC teams (UtahSt, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado State, and San Jose State). I like our chances there, even if we don't win out.

TL;DR: Even at 6-6, I think we have some breathing room just due to the number of slots. 7-5 makes us a lock for some bid somewhere, and 8-4 probably makes us a lock for one of the 6 MAC bids.
Last Edited: 11/12/2015 10:54:47 AM by C Money
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colobobcat66
11/12/2015 11:19 AM
C Money wrote:expand_more
Here are my thoughts on the MAC only bowl picture after this weeks games....
GO BOBCATS
I just did a similar analysis, but FBS-wide, and NOT considering the playoffs or the access bowl at-large spots. Here's what I've got (Number in parens = net change on bowl slots):

AAC: Probably one more team eligible than bowl slots. (-1)
ACC: Probably one more bowl slot than eligible teams. (+1)
B1G: Probably two more bowl slots than eligible teams. (+2)
Big 12: Protbably one more bowl slots than eligible teams (+1)
CUSA: Probably an equal number of bowl slots and eligible teams (0)
Indies: Probably an equal number of bowl slots and eligible teams with Army's slot now a MAC slot (0)
MAC: Probably two more eligible teams than bowl slots (I have Buff, Central, and Kron all getting eligible) (-2)
MWC: Probably two more eligible teams than bowl slots (-2)
Pac12: Probably two more eligible teams than bowl slots (-2)
SEC: Probably an equal number of bowl slots and eligible teams (0)
SBC: Probably an equal number of bowl slots and eligible teams (0)

That is 77 eligible teams for 74 slots BEFORE CONSIDERING THE AT LARGE SPOTS OR THE PLAYOFFS. Figure any eligible P5 team gets a bid before a MAC school, but that would just be the Pac 12 and it is just two schools. The AAC bubble teams (Cincy, Tulsa, USF, and Uconn) also probably get bids ahead of us. But we're looking at a playoff of probably an ACC school (Clemson), a B1G school (osu or Iowa), an SEC school (Bama probably), and a Big 12 school (Baylor or OkieSt) or Notre Dame, plus probably an AAC school in the access bowl (Houston, Memphis, or Navy), plus one other P5 school (osu or Notre Dame if not in the playoff, or a Pac 12 or a Big 12 team if they are in the playoff) as an at-large. So our competition is with the bubble MWC teams (UtahSt, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado State, and San Jose State). I like our chances there, even if we don't win out.

TL;DR: Even at 6-6, I think we have some breathing room just due to the number of slots. 7-5 makes us a lock for some bid somewhere, and 8-4 probably makes us a lock for one of the 6 MAC bids.
I tend to think that we would get in with even six wins, but I am not sure that we would be picked over any MW team if it came down to that. I doubt that we travel better than any the MW teams except maybe SJS or NM and they would probably be hungry for any bowl they could get to. Proximity to the bowl could be the deciding factor. A bigger concern to me is can we beat out any of the MAC teams if it has 8 teams qualify? Probably Akron, but not sure of which others we would beat out for a spot. We did get the St Pete bowl over Toledo a couple years ago, but most of the other schools either beat us (Buffalo) or appear to have fewer blow out losses in the MAC.
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C Money
11/12/2015 12:27 PM
colobobcat66 wrote:expand_more
I doubt that we travel better than any the MW teams except maybe SJS or NM and they would probably be hungry for any bowl they could get to. Proximity to the bowl could be the deciding factor.
Very true re: proximity. Here's the way I see it shaking out (if this info isn't correct, someone can correct me).

ACC: Last two bowl affiliates to pick are the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA (vs. SEC) and the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit (vs. B1G). We have recent history in the Independence Bowl (although we did not travel well), and a MAC school would be a no-brainer over a MWC school in Detroit.

B1G: Last two bowl affiliates to pick are the Quick Lane Bowl (see above) and the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth (vs. MWC). They probably wouldn't have a MAC vs. MAC team in Detroit, and they probably wouldn't have MWC vs. MWC in Fort Worth.

Big 12: Last two bowl affiliates to pick are the Cactus Bowl in Phoenix (vs. Pac 12) and the Heart of Dallas Bowl (vs. CUSA). The MWC probably has an advantage over the MAC on both of these.

SEC: Last bowl affiliate to pick here is the Independence Bowl (see above). Again, though, they probably don't want a MAC vs. MAC matchup.



So, of those 7 slots that will probably go unfilled, figure 2 go to Pac 12 teams. The MWC gets a bid to the Cactus Bowl since the Pac 12 wouldn't want a Pac 12 vs. Pac 12 matchup. That leaves 4 slots to split between probably two MAC schools and one MWC school. The MAC has the travel advantage in the Quick Lane Bowl, it's probably a slight edge to the MWC in the Heart of Dallas and Armed Forces bowls, and it's a push on the Independence Bowl.

So long as we can place one team in the Quick Lane Bowl, I think 8 MAC teams get bids, no problem.



(Of course, with 4 weeks of football left, all of this analysis will probably be useless. But it's more fun than focusing on work.)
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Casper71
11/12/2015 2:17 PM
Guys...I think we are #6 in the MAC pecking order. We all agree Toledo, BG, and NIU are in. I gotta believe WMU and Buffs are in if we tie with them. Didn't they both beat the crap out of us head to head? And, the West is just flat out better than the East so a tie with CMU could also be really problematic.

In a way all this talk is just wishful thinking and prognostication. Let's just see how the games play out and hope we end up at #5 (or better). If not, 6-6 may have us staying home again.

And, I'll repeat it, I don't think being bowl eligible means squat. For probably 20 teams going to a bowl doesn't mean squat either. But if those two factors make you really happy, have at it. Hell, let's let all 123 teams go to a bowl they deserve it for their participation for the full year:) Who knows, someday maybe ESPN will need that many games/teams to fill their air space and everyone will be happy!
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L.C.
11/12/2015 4:33 PM
Casper71 wrote:expand_more
Guys...I think we are #6 in the MAC pecking order. We all agree Toledo, BG, and NIU are in. I gotta believe WMU and Buffs are in if we tie with them. Didn't they both beat the crap out of us head to head? And, the West is just flat out better than the East so a tie with CMU could also be really problematic.

In a way all this talk is just wishful thinking and prognostication. Let's just see how the games play out and hope we end up at #5 (or better). If not, 6-6 may have us staying home again.

And, I'll repeat it, I don't think being bowl eligible means squat. For probably 20 teams going to a bowl doesn't mean squat either. But if those two factors make you really happy, have at it. Hell, let's let all 123 teams go to a bowl they deserve it for their participation for the full year:) Who knows, someday maybe ESPN will need that many games/teams to fill their air space and everyone will be happy!

I totally agree. Let's play the games and see how things work out. Ohio could be 8-4 and finishing strong, or they could be 6-6 and limping to the finish.

As for the bowls, they may not mean much to us, but the kids and their parents like them a lot.
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colobobcat66
11/12/2015 7:57 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Guys...I think we are #6 in the MAC pecking order. We all agree Toledo, BG, and NIU are in. I gotta believe WMU and Buffs are in if we tie with them. Didn't they both beat the crap out of us head to head? And, the West is just flat out better than the East so a tie with CMU could also be really problematic.

In a way all this talk is just wishful thinking and prognostication. Let's just see how the games play out and hope we end up at #5 (or better). If not, 6-6 may have us staying home again.

And, I'll repeat it, I don't think being bowl eligible means squat. For probably 20 teams going to a bowl doesn't mean squat either. But if those two factors make you really happy, have at it. Hell, let's let all 123 teams go to a bowl they deserve it for their participation for the full year:) Who knows, someday maybe ESPN will need that many games/teams to fill their air space and everyone will be happy!

I totally agree. Let's play the games and see how things work out. Ohio could be 8-4 and finishing strong, or they could be 6-6 and limping to the finish.

As for the bowls, they may not mean much to us, but the kids and their parents like them a lot.

Let me put it this way, having the Bobcats is another chance to see them, and if you don't want to watch, don't. Frankly, I'd rather watch them play a lot of teams over SE LA, etc. If it happens to be a an okay place to go in the winter, like St Pete, that's a plus as well. If you can't see any advantages to playing in a bowl game, you're not looking very hard.
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bshot44
11/12/2015 9:07 PM
I think 6-6 Ohio gets in over 6-6 Buffalo.

Even tho UB stomped us....TV ratings/$$$/fan travel are what bowls want. We check more of those boxes than UB
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bigtillyoopsupsideurhead
11/12/2015 9:15 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
I totally agree. Let's play the games and see how things work out. Ohio could be 8-4 and finishing strong, or they could be 6-6 and limping to the finish.
The most likely scenario is that we finish 7-5 though.
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GoCats105
11/13/2015 7:32 AM
South Alabama got a big win over Lafayette last night putting them at 5-4. Their final three games are at Georgia State, at Georgia Southern and at Appalachian State. They'll most likely beat Georgia State. If they get lucky in one of the other ones they might be in line to steal a bowl too.
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Victory
11/15/2015 9:58 AM
Victory wrote:expand_more
I think that the best bets now would be on 78 or 79 eligible teams. I think that it is better than 50/50 that every 6-6 team makes a bowl.
If anything this is slipping in the less bowl eligible teams direction. Its looking like 77 or 78 eligible teams is the most probable number.
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Victory
11/15/2015 10:06 AM
From teamrankings by chance to be eligible
1 Air Force 100.00%
2 Alabama 100.00%
3 App State 100.00%
4 Arizona 100.00%
5 Arkansas 100.00%
6 Arkansas St 100.00%
7 Baylor 100.00%
8 Boise State 100.00%
9 Bowling Grn 100.00%
10 BYU 100.00%
11 California 100.00%
12 Cincinnati 100.00%
13 Clemson 100.00%
14 Duke 100.00%
15 Florida 100.00%
16 Florida St 100.00%
17 GA Southern 100.00%
18 Georgia 100.00%
19 Houston 100.00%
20 Iowa 100.00%
21 LA Tech 100.00%
22 Louisville 100.00%
23 LSU 100.00%
24 Marshall 100.00%
25 Memphis 100.00%
26 Miami (FL) 100.00%
27 Michigan 100.00%
28 Michigan St 100.00%
29 Miss State 100.00%
30 Mississippi 100.00%
31 N Carolina 100.00%
32 N Illinois 100.00%
33 Navy 100.00%
34 NC State 100.00%
35 Nevada 100.00%
36 New Mexico 100.00%
37 Northwestern 100.00%
38 Notre Dame 100.00%
39 Ohio 100.00%
40 Ohio State 100.00%
41 Oklahoma 100.00%
42 Oklahoma St 100.00%
43 Oregon 100.00%
44 Penn State 100.00%
45 Pittsburgh 100.00%
46 S Florida 100.00%
47 S Mississippi 100.00%
48 San Diego St 100.00%
49 Stanford 100.00%
50 Temple 100.00%
51 Tennessee 100.00%
52 Texas A&M 100.00%
53 Texas Tech 100.00%
54 Toledo 100.00%
55 TX Christian 100.00%
56 UCLA 100.00%
57 USC 100.00%
58 Utah 100.00%
59 W Kentucky 100.00%
60 W Michigan 100.00%
61 Wash State 100.00%
62 Wisconsin 100.00%
63 W Virginia 99.80%
64 Central Mich 99.60%
65 Middle Tenn 99.30%
66 Auburn 98.70%
67 Akron 92.40%
68 Utah State 92.40%
69 Buffalo 84.10%
70 Colorado St 84.00%
71 VA Tech 80.10%
72 Tulsa 76.00%
73 Arizona St 72.90%
74 Illinois 66.60%
75 Washington 62.80%
76 Nebraska 52.70%
77 LA Lafayette 52.00%
78 S Alabama 46.10%
79 Old Dominion 44.60%
80 Missouri 42.00%
81 E Carolina 34.80%
82 Kentucky 34.00%
83 Rice 31.70%
84 Kansas St 25.00%
85 Connecticut 24.50%
86 Indiana 21.90%
87 Minnesota 16.50%
88 Florida Intl 16.40%
89 San Jose St 12.00%
90 Vanderbilt 4.20%
91 Texas 2.70%
92 TX El Paso 2.10%
93 Georgia State 1.60%
94 Army 0.00%
95 Ball State 0.00%
96 Boston Col 0.00%
97 Central FL 0.00%
98 Charlotte 0.00%
99 Colorado 0.00%
100 E Michigan 0.00%
101 Fla Atlantic 0.00%
102 Fresno St 0.00%
103 GA Tech 0.00%
104 Hawaii 0.00%
105 Idaho 0.00%
106 Iowa State 0.00%
107 Kansas 0.00%
108 Kent State 0.00%
109 LA Monroe 0.00%
110 Maryland 0.00%
111 Miami (OH) 0.00%
112 N Mex State 0.00%
113 North Texas 0.00%
114 Oregon St 0.00%
115 Purdue 0.00%
116 Rutgers 0.00%
117 S Carolina 0.00%
118 S Methodist 0.00%
119 Syracuse 0.00%
120 Texas State 0.00%
121 Troy 0.00%
122 Tulane 0.00%
123 TX-San Ant 0.00%
124 U Mass 0.00%
125 UNLV 0.00%
126 Virginia 0.00%
127 Wake Forest 0.00%
128 Wyoming 0.00%

If you add those up you get 77.7
Last Edited: 11/15/2015 10:06:54 AM by Victory
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Alan Swank
11/15/2015 11:58 AM
bshot44 wrote:expand_more
I think 6-6 Ohio gets in over 6-6 Buffalo.

Even tho UB stomped us....TV ratings/$$$/fan travel are what bowls want. We check more of those boxes than UB
Fan travel, when you look at how few OU fans have attended the last few bowls, fan travel is pretty irrelevant to the conversation.
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L.C.
11/15/2015 1:28 PM
Some local fans seem to think that even a 5-7 Nebraska will get a bowl invitation. I guess it's possible that even after all the 6-6 teams are invited they still don't have enough bowl teams, and that they will have to take a couple 5-7 teams. I can't ever recall seeing a 5-7 team invited to a bowl, though. It certainly looks likely that most, or all, of the 6-6 teams will get a bowl, but I want to see Ohio finish strong and not test that.
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Pataskala
11/15/2015 2:01 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Some local fans seem to think that even a 5-7 Nebraska will get a bowl invitation. I guess it's possible that even after all the 6-6 teams are invited they still don't have enough bowl teams, and that they will have to take a couple 5-7 teams. I can't ever recall seeing a 5-7 team invited to a bowl, though. It certainly looks likely that most, or all, of the 6-6 teams will get a bowl, but I want to see Ohio finish strong and not test that.
There have been several teams with losing records invited to bowls, including SMU's 4-6 team in 1963: http://www.thesportsseer.com/2013/12/30/worst-college-foo... /

As I recall in the '90s there was a bowl game between a 6-5 team and a 5-6 team which created part of the uproar that led to the requirement that teams be at least .500. I think it involved Mizzou.

I think we'll still be in at 6-6 but 7+ wins would help seal the deal.
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colobobcat66
11/15/2015 3:34 PM
Alan Swank wrote:expand_more
I think 6-6 Ohio gets in over 6-6 Buffalo.

Even tho UB stomped us....TV ratings/$$$/fan travel are what bowls want. We check more of those boxes than UB
Fan travel, when you look at how few OU fans have attended the last few bowls, fan travel is pretty irrelevant to the conversation.
Totally disagree. There were more Ohio fans at the St Pete bowl than any game since Detroit and maybe The Go Daddy bowl a few years back. A really nice turnout in that case for the "away" team. It's all relative I guess, but there were probably 10 times more than the New Orleans bowl.
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Victory
11/15/2015 6:27 PM
Several early Sunbelt Champions were either 4-7 (I think that this was North Texas) or 5-6 and got to go as a conference championship automatically makes you eligible. A Pac 12 and MWC championship loser (I think UCLA and Fresno St.) have both gotten to go at 6-7 in recent years by NCAA waiver.

If there are not enough 6-6 teams present rules state that the 5-7 teams with the best graduation rates get to go. The bowls have no say at all in who those are. They need to accept who comes out on top. Although the NCAA bypassed existing rules and granted waivers to those 6-7 teams because the bowls wanted them.

It depends on which teams get eligible and how many and then which teams are 5-7. Some of the most likely teams to be 5-7 that would be near the top are Nebraska, Vanderbilt, Indiana, and Minnesota.
Last Edited: 11/15/2015 6:30:26 PM by Victory
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