When a running back is gaining yardage consistently he's going to get more carries. I checked the stats for the last decade, and when a running back has averaged 4.9 yards a carry or better, they have averaged between 16 and 24.5 carries a game:
2005 - McRae 5.5 yds/carry, 19 carries a game
2011 - Harden 5.3 /carry, 16 carries a game
2012 - Blankenship 5.1 /carry, 24 carries a game
2014 - OUellette 4.9/carry, 16 carries a game
2007 - McRae 4.9/carry, 24.5 carries a game
2006 - McRae 4.9/carry, 18 carries a game
When they have averged less than that, they got a lot less carries:
2013 - Blankenship 4.5/carry, 16 carries a game
2008 - Garrett 4.5/carry, 10 carries a game
2009 - Garrett 4.2/carry, 12 carries a game
2010 - Davidson 3.9/carry, 12 carries a game
My feeling is that the load that Blankenship carried in 2012, and that McRae carried in 2007, both at 24 carries a game, was too heavy, and it took a toll on them over the year. If AJ can average 4.9 a carry again, and I think he can, then I think a reasonable number would be in the 16-19 carry a game range. If they are going to run the ball 30-35 times, that leaves 10-15 carries to be split among the others.
Last Edited: 8/26/2015 12:57:14 PM by L.C.