Sagarin this week has the MAC as follows:

#24 WMU - Rating 82.51
#39 Toledo - Rating 76.73
#90 CMU - Rating 64.76
#94 Ohio - Rating 63.57
#98 Akron - Rating 61.53
#104 NIU - Rating 59.14
#105 Ball St - Rating 58.92
#136 Miami - Rating 52.28
#138 Kent St - Rating 51.34
#139 EMU - Rating 51.56 (Interesting that his system isn't giving EMU much respect despite the 4-1 record)
#146 BG - Rating 49.97
#149 Buffalo - Rating 49.66

When using Sagarin's ratings, you give the home team an extra 3 points, and the difference is the expected outcome. So, he would project us to beat all the remaining East teams on our schedule + EMU, lose to Toledo by two TDs, and lose to CMU by about 4. He'd project Akron to lose to WMU and Toledo big, be in a VERY tight game at Ball State (with maybe a slight edge to BSU), and lose to us, winning every other game.

I'd be happy with that outcome.

MSU is NOT very good

I rest my case on recruiting. We need MORE BETTER players to win a MACC. We have all seen WMU piling up a bunch of 3-star guys since PJ arrived at WMU. The fruits of that labor are now showing. Not sure how they are doing it...PJ Fleck only? But however they are doing it we should try getting on board with that philosophy. I guess I will say it til I die...it is just real difficult if not impossible to get a bunch of 2-star, NR guys and walk ons playing at a high enough level to win a MACC.

Western is clearly in its own tier this year, and Fleck will leave the cupboard stuffed with goodies when he leaves for more money. That will likely be at the end of this year. It will be interesting to see how long Western will be the standard bearer for the conference once they have to replace such a dynamic coach.

I still think Row the Boat is stupid despite clear evidence that every kid in Kalamazoo has bought in to it.

ESPN's COllege Gameday had a short little piece on Fleck this past Saturday and even they were saying Fleck's not long for that program. Will Western Michigan sustain success after he leaves or will they implode like BGSU has? Time will tell.

Well Fleck was coaching/recruiting at NIU 2007-2009. He helped bring in Chandler Harnish, Jordan Lynch and others that carried NIU for years.

I have always agreed with you here, Casper. Coaching can only get you so far. You need recruiting, too. Fleck is proof enough of that. First, his recruiting at NIU from 2007-2009 was followed by NIU getting to the MAC every year from 2010-2015 (players he recruited would have played between 2010-2014), and winning it 3 of 6 tries. With his recruits gone, NIU appears to be back in the middle of the pack. Next, his recruiting at WMU has turned WMU into what thus far appears to be the best MAC team since Miami 2003.

Ohio's recruiting has improved a lot, and continues to improve, but it's been a much slower process than I ever imagined. Even now it's still not at the level that WMU and Toledo have been having in recent years. It doesn't mean that they can't win the MACC, but it will mean they will be an underdog in the Championship game, if they get there.

As a FWIW, if recruiting rankings were all that mattered, and recruiting rankings were completely accurate, and if coaching has no impact, here is what the order of teams should be, based on composite recruiting rankings from 2012-2016:

Predicted from Recruiting
Tier 1: Toledo, WMU
Tier 2: BG, NIU, Miami
Tier 3: Ohio, CMU, Ball State
Tier 4: Kent, EMU, Akron, Buffalo

Current Actual
Tier 1: WMU (same), Toledo (same)
Tier 2: CMU (+1 Tier), Ohio (+1 Tier), Akron (+2 Tiers)
Tier 3: NIU (-1 Tier), Ball St, Miami (-1 Tier)
Tier 4: Kent St, EMU, BG (-2 Tiers), Buffalo

In actual performance, that's where many teams are, which shows that the recruiting rankings are not totally wrong. Five teams aren't where the recruiting rankings predict, and in most cases I'd attribute that to coaching:
Akron - significantly better, one reason is their ranking is wrong because they
rely on so many transfers, and transfers never get counted in recruiting rankings
Ohio, CMU - somewhat better than predicted
NIU - lower, presumably due to injuries
Miami - lower than you'd expect, presumably because they suck
BG - way lower than you'd expect

Note also that if you just look at the last three years, the recruiting order shows that Ohio is moving up, just not as fast as we'd like:
Tier 1+: WMU, way, way out front
Tier 2: Toledo, NIU, Ohio, Miami
Tier 3: Ball St, Buffalo, BG
Tier 4: CMU, EMU, Kent, Akron

Sagarin ratings through week 6:

28 Western Michigan - Rating = 80.63
43 Toledo - Rating = 76.54
86 Central Michigan - Rating = 63.96
95 Akron - Rating = 63.30
97 Ohio - Rating = 62.95
100 Northern Illinois - Rating = 60.53
101 Ball State - Rating = 60.27
126 Kent State - Rating = 55.10
136 Eastern Michigan - Rating = 52.78
144 Bowling Green - Rating = 51.35
149 Miami-Ohio - Rating = 50.73
171 Buffalo - Rating = 46.47


Buffalo has nosedived, EMU still getting no love from Sagarin, and with Houston's loss WMU has a shot at a NY6 bowl if they keep winning and Boise stumbles.

It is easy to say that recruiting to Ohio and Athens is a challenge. Could be. And then I think of certain other schools and locales.
* Central Michigan and Mt.Pleasant. 110 miles north of Detroit. Population 26,000. COLD winters. Unimpressive stadium. Plays in 'shadows' of Michigan and Michigan State. Chips have played some good football for decades.
* Oxford, Ohio. I'll let you cite the challenges.
* Kalamazoo. Ever been there? Want to go back? 100 miles west of Detroit. What will happen to program post Fleck?
* DeKalb. 60 miles west of Chicago. Population 35,000. NIU has been doing okay with recruiting.

I'd rather have a Fleck with a Solich-type personality! I simply can't stand looking at the guy's antics on the sidelines and other places. Now, I"m not an 17-year-old recruit, either. If that's what floats their boats, OK, but it's not something that appeals to me.

So just because a guy shows some charisma and some fire on the sidelines that means you don't like his personality because of his "antics?" Maybe that's what kids want to see. A guy who is going to go to bat for them. A guy who is going to be as excited to be there as they are.

I think there's a reason that top level recruits don't want to play here and it doesn't have anything to do with Athens, the school or the facilities. It doesn't even necessarily have to do with the coach Solich.

I think we do have a Fleck with a Solich-type personality (but a little more outgoing than Solich); he just happens to coach the Men's' basketball team.