Fans always talk about head-to-head. The trouble is Ohio St. and Penn St. don't exist in a vacuum. Michigan is also being evaluated and Penn St. got completely destroyed by them. By that argument Michigan goes. But then Ohio St. beat them and they go again. The committee's job is to consider the resume of 128 teams. It isn't to rank Ohio St. vs. Penn State in a vacuum. They might evaluate Ohio State vs. Clemson and Washington and say Ohio St. is clearly better and evaluate Penn St. against Clemson and Washington and find that they are clearly worse. What about evaluating Oklahoma against Penn St. (both two losses and a conference title - maybe Oklahoma is ahead because they didn't lose to a team like Pitt) and Ohio St. vs. Oklahoma (If H2H is the end all be all Ohio St. destroyed them.) Anyone who has actually had to sit in on an hours long debate where all teams need to be evaluated against all others knows that trying to apply H2H as something more than a tiebreaker is extremely problematic and basically impossible and often becomes an emotional appeal of fan bases who are able to focus in on who their team has defeated and mentally block out their own losses.
We have seen A LOT of shuffling at the top in the last weeks ranking. It is apparent that conference titles matter A LOT. This doesn't mean as Herbstreit says that Michigan might jump Washington. I think the opposite will happen. Clemson, Washington, Oklahoma and Penn St. will move up with respect to other teams. I think the upshot of that is Penn St will jump a Michigan team who destroyed them, would be favored to beat them, and has a higher strength of record due to Colorado OOC because the conference title will override that. I doubt they will jump Ohio St. because other than the title Ohio State's resume is much, much better. The argument, if there is one, is probably down to Ohio St and Penn St. If OSU is not #4 this week there was probably little argument for inclusion. We'll see if the title is enough for PSU to make up A TON of ground in a few minutes.
Last Edited: 12/4/2016 12:19:17 PM by Victory