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Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Adjusting Ohio records for schedule difficulty
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L.C.
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Posted: 12/28/2016 11:36 PM
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People have commented that schedules were harder "back in the old days" so that you can't compare coaches straight up. To adjust for the schedule, I computed a "predicted wins" for each year using the following formula:
Home MAC game: 60% chance of win
Away MAC game: 40% chance of win
Home G5 game: 60% chance of win
Away G5 game: 40% chance of win
Home P5 game: 30% chance of win
Away P5 game: 10% chance of win
Home Top 25 game: 10% chance of win
Away Top 25 game: no chance of win
Home FCS game: 90% chance of win
Away FCS game: 70% chance of win

I came with the the following for projected win percentages by coach:
Wise .611 (actual .361)
Widdoes .516 (actual .542)
Hess .510 (actual .542)
Kappes .436 (actual .273)
Burke .468 (actual .477)
Bryant .436 (actual .182)
Lichtenberg .465 (actual .164)
Grobe .445 (actual .500)
Knorr .443 (actual .239)
Solich .471 (actual .568)
Last 5 years .488 (actual .585)

So, yes, the schedules are easier now, but so are the winning percentages. Coaches that won more than predicted are Widdoes, Hess, Burke, Grobe, and Solich. Incidentally, not all of the Solich schedules have been easy. 2005 was one of the hardest since WWII with Northwestern, Pitt, and Virginia Tech.
Last Edited: 12/29/2016 12:11:53 AM by L.C.
allen
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Posted: 12/29/2016 12:13 AM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
People have commented that schedules were harder "back in the old days" so that you can't compare coaches straight up. To adjust for the schedule, I computed a "predicted wins" for each year using the following formula:
Home MAC game: 60% chance of win
Away MAC game: 40% chance of win
Home G5 game: 60% chance of win
Away G5 game: 40% chance of win
Home P5 game: 30% chance of win
Away P5 game: 10% chance of win
Home Top 25 game: 10% chance of win
Away Top 25 game: no chance of win
Home FCS game: 90% chance of win
Away FCS game: 70% chance of win

I came with the the following for projected win percentages by coach:
Wise .611 (actual .361)
Widdoes .516 (actual .542)
Hess .510 (actual .542)
Kappes .436 (actual .273)
Burke .468 (actual .477)
Bryant .436 (actual .182)
Lichtenberg .465 (actual .164)
Grobe .445 (actual .500)
Knorr .443 (actual .239)
Solich .471 (actual .568)
Last 5 years .488 (actual .585)

So, yes, the schedules are easier now, but so are the winning percentages. Coaches that won more that predicted are Widdoes, Hess, Burke, Grobe, and Solich.
You might have just stepped on Bcat2's toes. Nobody, I mean nobody casts a hypothetical that shows this staff in a negative light. Just Kidding
L.C.
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Posted: 12/29/2016 12:30 AM
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I wasn't trying to cast the staff in a good or bad light. I was just trying to answer the question of whether the schedules were harder back in the day, and yes, they are, by about 1/2 win a year. Of course, no staff wins at exactly the predicted level - some win more, some win less.
allen
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Posted: 12/29/2016 12:41 AM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
I wasn't trying to cast the staff in a good or bad light. I was just trying to answer the question of whether the schedules were harder back in the day, and yes, they are, by about 1/2 win a year. Of course, no staff wins at exactly the predicted level - some win more, some win less.
+1
Bcat2
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Posted: 12/29/2016 12:42 AM
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allen wrote:expand_more
People have commented that schedules were harder "back in the old days" so that you can't compare coaches straight up. To adjust for the schedule, I computed a "predicted wins" for each year using the following formula:
Home MAC game: 60% chance of win
Away MAC game: 40% chance of win
Home G5 game: 60% chance of win
Away G5 game: 40% chance of win
Home P5 game: 30% chance of win
Away P5 game: 10% chance of win
Home Top 25 game: 10% chance of win
Away Top 25 game: no chance of win
Home FCS game: 90% chance of win
Away FCS game: 70% chance of win

I came with the the following for projected win percentages by coach:
Wise .611 (actual .361)
Widdoes .516 (actual .542)
Hess .510 (actual .542)
Kappes .436 (actual .273)
Burke .468 (actual .477)
Bryant .436 (actual .182)
Lichtenberg .465 (actual .164)
Grobe .445 (actual .500)
Knorr .443 (actual .239)
Solich .471 (actual .568)
Last 5 years .488 (actual .585)

So, yes, the schedules are easier now, but so are the winning percentages. Coaches that won more that predicted are Widdoes, Hess, Burke, Grobe, and Solich.
You might have just stepped on Bcat2's toes. Nobody, I mean nobody casts a hypothetical that shows this staff in a negative light. Just Kidding
allen, look again. These numbers put Solich in a very positive light.
Buckeye to Bobcat
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Posted: 12/29/2016 12:44 AM
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You have to remember as well, schedules are usually set 4-5 years in advance in terms of the big boys, but in 2005 that was a Knorr schedule. Solich's effect started coming 2007 or 2008. So yes, 05 was the toughest, but that was set up by the powers that be 4 years prior. Not trying to dispel Solich's scheduling, if anything he grabs P5 teams right on their upswing when you're supposed to catch em in the dumps. Ah well, at least he picks right in terms of that.
L.C.
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Posted: 12/29/2016 2:02 AM
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Yes, I know that 2005-6 were set up in advance, by Knorr/Boeh, and I recall that Solich wasn't too happy because he felt it would be hard to be successful with schedules like 2005. The more recent schedules reflect where he thinks the team is. I note that we're seeing more difficult schedules for the years ahead than we saw in recent years.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 12/29/2016 2:07 AM
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Hey, let's get lost in theoretics, splinter statistics, and predictions.


Try this: 12 years without a MACC, lost 3 of the last four with the one win being not much to brag about, a worse record than the prior year, and 6 losses despite a slew of All-MAC players and the usual pancake schedule.



You may now return to your regularly scheduled fantasy.
Paul Graham
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Posted: 12/29/2016 2:09 AM
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What's missing here is the strength of opponents year over year...particularly MAC opponents. For example, this was a very down year for the MAC East and that allowed us a relatively unchallenged path to the MACC. I'd love to see a SoS year over year.
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