Defense likely to be markedly not as good as last year.
This year was the best D in many, many years.
Didn't we lead the nation in turnovers one year about 8 years ago? Since then?
Return to nearer our norm is very likely.
The whole point, Monroe, is that the defense has been pretty good, year in, year out. The exception would be right after they switched to the Cover-4. During the first 2 years of the Cover-4 they had an unusually high number of "crashing losses", or whatever you called them, as teams exposed flaws in Ohio's implementation of the Cover-4. They seemed to have fixed most of those flaws, and the Cover-4 is working better now.
Going back, the three best defenses in recent years in terms of Scoring defense have been 2009 (21.3), 2011 (22.1), and 2016 (22.6), all three of which were MAC-East Championship years. The average is 24.2 points, so if Ohio slips back to the average, as you suggest, it won't be a huge drop.
By the way, comparing the 2009-13 years (Cover-2) with the 2014-16 years (Cover 4), the numbers are:
Points: Cover-2=23.9, Cover-4=24.2
Total Yards: Cover-2=371.6, Cover-4=377.4
Yards Rushing: Cover-2=153.3, Cover-4=135.2
Yards Passing: Cover-2=220.8, Cover-4=242.2
Pass Efficiency Def: Cover-2=122.9, Cover-4=128.9
So... the net effect is about the same. The cover-4 stops the run better, the cover-2 does better against the pass.
How was this year's defense? With a great front 7, and a suspect back 4 you'd expect to find great run defense, and poor pass defense, and that's exactly what you find. Against the run, the 104.4 yards given up was the best, by far, while the 255.8 yards that it gave up against the pass was the 2d worst, while the pass efficiency defense was the worst at 135.2.
If next year's defense moves towards the norm, expect the yards rushing to move up to 135, and the passing to come down a little to 235 or so, and the points to go up tad, to about 24. That would make it about the same as 2010.
Last Edited: 1/2/2017 5:40:11 PM by L.C.