People have commented that schedules were harder "back in the old days" so that you can't compare coaches straight up. To adjust for the schedule, I computed a "predicted wins" for each year using the following formula:
Home MAC game: 60% chance of win
Away MAC game: 40% chance of win
Home G5 game: 60% chance of win
Away G5 game: 40% chance of win
Home P5 game: 30% chance of win
Away P5 game: 10% chance of win
Home Top 25 game: 10% chance of win
Away Top 25 game: no chance of win
Home FCS game: 90% chance of win
Away FCS game: 70% chance of win
I came with the the following for projected win percentages by coach:
Wise .611 (actual .361)
Widdoes .516 (actual .542)
Hess .510 (actual .542)
Kappes .436 (actual .273)
Burke .468 (actual .477)
Bryant .436 (actual .182)
Lichtenberg .465 (actual .164)
Grobe .445 (actual .500)
Knorr .443 (actual .239)
Solich .471 (actual .568)
Last 5 years .488 (actual .585)
So, yes, the schedules are easier now, but so are the winning percentages. Coaches that won more than predicted are Widdoes, Hess, Burke, Grobe, and Solich. Incidentally, not all of the Solich schedules have been easy. 2005 was one of the hardest since WWII with Northwestern, Pitt, and Virginia Tech.
Last Edited: 12/29/2016 12:11:53 AM by L.C.