Toledo wins the west and Western is 2nd.

I don't see NIU finishing 5th, but for bonus points, if NIU does finish 5th, will Carey be looking for new opportunities? That would imply a season record of perhaps 3-8.

He does have a MACC, as well as three appearances in the MACC Game in four years. He also has an outstanding 26-6 conference record. On the other hand, each year has been worse than the one before it. He has gone:
2013: 12-2 First in West
2014: 11-3 Tie, first in West, MACC
2015: 8-6 Tie, first in West
2016: 5-7 3rd in West
2017: 3-8?????? 5th in West????

If they really do that badly this year, his seat will have to be very, very warm. USA Today puts him at the top of their hotseat list:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/05/30/10... /
but...he's nowhere to be found on this list:
http://www.coacheshotseat.com /

I think I would have NIU third, EMU fourth, and BSU fifth. Of the three, NIU has the easiest cross-over schedule: Kent, Buffalo & BG (probably the 6, 5 and 4 teams in the East). EMU has Ohio, Fiami & BG (1, 2 and 4), while BSU has Akron, Buffalo & Fiami (3, 5 and 1 or 2). I don't see BSU improving enough from last year's 1-7 record to get above fifth.

Toledo and Western are absolutely 1a and 1b in this division. I think Toledo gets it. Eastern Michigan is a dark horse for sure - can they build on last year?