IMO, the MAC schedule was a HUGE advantage for Ohio to get to this point. There was no BG, NIU or WMU on it...
In the MAC, there were 4 teams ahead of the rest. How many of the top 4 did each play?
Miami: played 2/3, missing only Buffalo. Miami was 2-0
Ohio: played 2/3, missing only BG. Ohio went 1-1
BG: played 1/3, missing both Buffalo and Ohio. BG was 0-1
Buffalo played 1/3, missing both Miami and BG. Buffalo was 0-1
Among the next three, it was:
WMU played 2/4, missing both Ohio and Miami. WMU went 1-1 against the top 4.
NIU played 3/4, missing Ohio. They went 1-2
Toledo played all four. They went 1-3
Ranking the schedules from easiest to hardest, it goes:
1. Buffalo/BG (tie)
3. WMU
4. Ohio/Miami (tie)
6. NIU
7. Toledo
Ohio was right in the middle. They did not have a free ride. I would argue that Buffalo and BG did, but they didn't win when they needed to. Toledo and NIU had the hardest paths, and I'd feel sorry for them, had they won half their games against the top four, but they didn't.