Or, is it #4, which is that things are exactly what you would predict from applied statistics?

Let's use 70%-30% as a normal expected win percentage for a game. Ohio is typically favored in about 8 games, and the underdog in about 4 games. So, you would expect a "bad loss" in 8 games * 30% of the time, or 2.4 games a year. You would expect a "good win" in about 4 games * 30% of the time, or about 1.2 games a year. Thus you'd expect about twice as many "bad losses" as "good wins", since Ohio is favored in about twice as many games as they are the underdog.

Looking at your data, Ohio has 12 "bad losses" in 5.5 years, or 2.2 games a year. They have 6 "good wins" in 5.5 years, or 1.1 games/year. That's almost dead on what I would have predicted.

Now, some games are supposedly 60-40, while others are 80-20, but I doubt that if you used "exact" numbers for each game that the answer would be any different.


If I were guessing the difference, it's that Ohio competes with OSU and UC in state, plus Miami, BG, Toledo, Akron, and Kent, while for NIU, after Illinois and Northwestern, they compete with FCS schools. They also are the G5 school closest to Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. While Ohio produces more Division 1 players than those states, it is also more heavily recruited. That's just a guess, however.

Okay bshot44 I give up! We are not going in the right direction! We play in the worst conference in college football and we suck! We need major changes to our coaching staff, players, administration, and scoreboard staff! If this isn't done soon, I suggest we rally behind Monroe and take to the streets!! Bring back the Bobcats of yesteryears!!! I'm tired of the humiliation!....How's that?

I get that. My suggestion is to just ignore them rather than engage in them.

Only stokes the fire.

Again, that's more or less what you'd expect to see. Ohio, as an above average team, is favored in more conference games than where they are an underdog, giving them more opportunity for a "bad loss" than opportunities for a good win. Excluding FCS foes, Ohio is more often than not an underdog in OOC games, and therefore has more opportunity for a "good win" than an opportunity for a "bad loss".

For what it's worth, I disagree with you about some of the games in your list:


I would have to include North Texas State in 2013 as a good win, considering they won the CUSA west that year. I'm also surprised you didn't include last year's Miami win as a good win.

As far as "bad losses" in conference, for me a bad loss is losing to a team that ends up with a .500 or worse record in MAC play. Here are the MAC records of teams that beat Ohio in that timespan:

2012
Miami 3-5 (bad loss by my definition)
BG 6-2
Ball State 6-2
Kent 8-0

2013
CMU 5-3
Buffalo 6-2
BG 7-1
Kent 3-5 (bad loss by my definition)

2014
CMU 5-3
BG 5-3
WMU 6-2
NIU 7-1

2015
WMU 6-2
Buffalo 3-5 (bad loss by my definition)
BG 7-1

2016
EMU 4-4 (bad loss by my definition)
CMU 3-5 (bad loss by my definition)
WMU 8-0

Thus, I include some games you don't, but a lot of games that you have listed aren't on mine.

I call it the annual crapping of the bed. Identified it many years ago and look for it each year. Here are the award winners in my book:

2017 - CMU @ Home (HC) - Favored by 10.5
2016 - EMU @ Home - Favored by 7.5
2015 - Buffalo on Road - Favored by 2.5 (not a huge upset but we got killed)
2014 - Not really any because it was a down year all around.
2013 - CMU @ Home (HC) - Favored by 17.5
2012 - Miami on Road - Favored by 7.5 and ranked.
2011 - Ball St @ Home (HC) - Can't find line but was big.
2010 - Kent on Road - Favored by 5. Everyone remembers this one...
2009 - Kent @ Home - Our lone MAC loss was at home to a 4-4 team.

But I do understand this is just part of the game and there is another side to the equation.

Disagree. We play, generally, one OOC game to a P5 team where we're the underdog. We play two games that are essentially even or where we're favored.


I'm not including those, because if we are an above-average team, those are the games we should be winning. That's business as usual.

I'm looking at the margin as much as the opponent. By your definition, that three game stretch in 2015 where we lost to WMU, Buffalo, and BG by an average score of 51-18, included only one "bad loss". That was some of the most wretched, demoralizing football I've ever seen.

You see the same thing for that 2013 span of Buffalo, BG, and Kent--only one "bad loss" according to you, but we lost by a margin of 123-16.

If you say so. Read into it whatever you'd like. That's your right

according to the fire marshall, 24,000 is 24,000, so I imagine that 27,000 will be 27,000.

I personally believe we should build outto 35-40k, this would allow us to not only recruit bigger athletes, but would also allow us to be more attractive to bigger schools as a home and away series, and the extra revenue would help us fund the program to be competitive on a greater scale. I've actually heard that after the Sook is builtthatthere will be an unveiling of plans to expand the student side of the stadium with some structural repairs, new amenities underneath (bathrooms, concessions, etc) but also build a deck with about 19 rows which will get us to 35,000.

Go Cats

Friends don't let friends post drunk.

Northern Illinois has a stadium that is 23,595 in capacity one of the smallest in the MAC and they have great non-conference games. Ball State is 22,500 and I believe Buffalo is 23,000 as they've put a tarp over a 6k endzone section. NIU is getting the games because of all the MAC West titles they've won this decade.

NIU big home games

2017-Boston College
2018-Utah
2020-BYU
2021-Maryland
2022-Vanderbilt
2023-Tulsa

Wow. #MACtion to #ACCtion